When Will Crime Start Affecting Prices?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC has been poorly run (or struggling to manage around its problems) and a higher ratio of crime to its nicer satellite suburbs that have no obligations to DCs problems and operations for over a hundred years . People have done the math and left for these ever since. It is only the current crop of transplants that want their cake and eat it too that seem to think if they whine loud enough that someone will come along an fix everything

To be fair, DC wasn't like this before the '68 riots. It used to be a very diverse area with lots of MC and UMC people of many races. Then of course it became very bad. Things started to get better and many of us had hopes for a return to the pre-riots DC. Now things are on the downslide again and the outlook looks grim. It became untenable for us so we sold our DC home and left.

I think your memories are clouded by the lack of care and reporting that inflicted the ghettos and alleyways before the riots. There was a reason for the riots after all. MLK was only the spark. True the compounding of the drug war didn’t do society any favors but since the dawn of time the marginalized parts of society have done marginal things.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've noticed several houses in close in Capitol Hill are sitting on the market with price cuts. It seems like even six months ago this wouldn't be happening.

There is always a difference between selling in June versus December.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DC has been poorly run (or struggling to manage around its problems) and a higher ratio of crime to its nicer satellite suburbs that have no obligations to DCs problems and operations for over a hundred years . People have done the math and left for these ever since. It is only the current crop of transplants that want their cake and eat it too that seem to think if they whine loud enough that someone will come along an fix everything

This! Cities will always have a measure of city charm when it comes to traffic, crime, noise and dirt. The larger the gap and ratio to haves vs have nots are the harbinger to how volatile it is. This utopia that upper SES Washingtonians pine for where Maryland and Va drives are barred, the poor people are pushed to PG and PWC never to return and the few remaining show copious amounts of civic responsibility all while returning fed workers fuel a vibrant restaurant and bar scene leaving the residents to enjoy unlimited telework is laughable.

If the world is cyclical the next white-flight might be SES flight. Considering it happen normally when people age out of bars and into kids at a percentage. A few points greater than normal could equal a flood. The only interesting divergence is that economic pressure have created an exodus of poor people to the suburbs already, at some point the DC ring areas might be just as bad and further out isn’t realistic. Where will people feeling go?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:While there is an increase in crime, it doesn't outweigh all the other factors. The odds of me being carjacked are still really low. The odds of me having a crappy commute from Virginia are pretty high.

It's really hard to parse hype about crime from actual risk, but I guess home prices speak loudly.

Last I checked there are stops in Va that are only a few metro stops to downtown. I wouldn’t call that crappy.

Someone was robbed at gunpoint, not carjacked, outside Wegmans, in City Ridge in broad daylight on NYE.

I think crime has impacted condos in NoMA, know people having a hard time getting what they paid, whereas there had been appreciation back in say 2018.

I think it will take longer to impact SFH but it would well happen.

[Anonymous]

We sold our Petworth row home end of May and got out of the area altogether after almost two decades in DC. Overall decline in quality of life vs rising cost of living did us in. Crime was one of the big factors, and you don’t realize how much better life is when you don’t have to constantly hear gunshots.
This person overpaid in 2020, but seeing lots of listings like this in once very popular neighborhoods (I would never live on this block): https://redf.in/QIx61E

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We sold our Petworth row home end of May and got out of the area altogether after almost two decades in DC. Overall decline in quality of life vs rising cost of living did us in. Crime was one of the big factors, and you don’t realize how much better life is when you don’t have to constantly hear gunshots.
This person overpaid in 2020, but seeing lots of listings like this in once very popular neighborhoods (I would never live on this block): https://redf.in/QIx61E

Given the transaction cost (5%), if they sell at 1m they are breaking even, but chances are they will have to cut their price to sell (been on market for a while now), especially given that there is a decent amount of inventory in that area currently.

Yeah would never live on that block, especially after Covid, pre-covid that area was fine but now, it is literally infested with crime.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We sold our Petworth row home end of May and got out of the area altogether after almost two decades in DC. Overall decline in quality of life vs rising cost of living did us in. Crime was one of the big factors, and you don’t realize how much better life is when you don’t have to constantly hear gunshots.
This person overpaid in 2020, but seeing lots of listings like this in once very popular neighborhoods (I would never live on this block): https://redf.in/QIx61E

Given the transaction cost (5%), if they sell at 1m they are breaking even, but chances are they will have to cut their price to sell (been on market for a while now), especially given that there is a decent amount of inventory in that area currently.

Yeah would never live on that block, especially after Covid, pre-covid that area was fine but now, it is literally infested with crime.

DP here. This makes me so sad to hear. So many DC neighborhoods that were nice places to live and getting better have now declined into unsafe areas.

[Anonymous]

It's anecdotal, but my house was appraised in 2019 and again last week. $250K drop. Not shocking. I'm still very much coming out ahead since I bought in 2007 and we're not in a position to leave for a while, so here's hoping that things get better in the next ten years or so.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's anecdotal, but my house was appraised in 2019 and again last week. $250K drop. Not shocking. I'm still very much coming out ahead since I bought in 2007 and we're not in a position to leave for a while, so here's hoping that things get better in the next ten years or so.

Can I ask, why the appraisal if you're not selling any time soon? Can't be for refinancing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's anecdotal, but my house was appraised in 2019 and again last week. $250K drop. Not shocking. I'm still very much coming out ahead since I bought in 2007 and we're not in a position to leave for a while, so here's hoping that things get better in the next ten years or so.

Surprising to me. Prices are 30-40% higher in 2024 vs 2019.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We sold our Petworth row home end of May and got out of the area altogether after almost two decades in DC. Overall decline in quality of life vs rising cost of living did us in. Crime was one of the big factors, and you don’t realize how much better life is when you don’t have to constantly hear gunshots.
This person overpaid in 2020, but seeing lots of listings like this in once very popular neighborhoods (I would never live on this block): https://redf.in/QIx61E

Given the transaction cost (5%), if they sell at 1m they are breaking even, but chances are they will have to cut their price to sell (been on market for a while now), especially given that there is a decent amount of inventory in that area currently.

Yeah would never live on that block, especially after Covid, pre-covid that area was fine but now, it is literally infested with crime.

Petworth has always been meh. There was a contingent that swore they could will it nice with coffee shops and a blog but it never really got there. Petworth now is still the Petworth of yesterday. It’s the hope that is gone that and the ability to kid one’s self.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We sold our Petworth row home end of May and got out of the area altogether after almost two decades in DC. Overall decline in quality of life vs rising cost of living did us in. Crime was one of the big factors, and you don’t realize how much better life is when you don’t have to constantly hear gunshots.
This person overpaid in 2020, but seeing lots of listings like this in once very popular neighborhoods (I would never live on this block): https://redf.in/QIx61E

Given the transaction cost (5%), if they sell at 1m they are breaking even, but chances are they will have to cut their price to sell (been on market for a while now), especially given that there is a decent amount of inventory in that area currently.

Yeah would never live on that block, especially after Covid, pre-covid that area was fine but now, it is literally infested with crime.

Petworth has always been meh. There was a contingent that swore they could will it nice with coffee shops and a blog but it never really got there. Petworth now is still the Petworth of yesterday. It’s the hope that is gone that and the ability to kid one’s self.

Doesn’t the guy who edits the Prince of Petworth blog now live in some posh WOTP neighborhood? Says all you need to know about Petworth.

That said, I think the link you were looking at is for a listing in Columbia Heights.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We sold our Petworth row home end of May and got out of the area altogether after almost two decades in DC. Overall decline in quality of life vs rising cost of living did us in. Crime was one of the big factors, and you don’t realize how much better life is when you don’t have to constantly hear gunshots.
This person overpaid in 2020, but seeing lots of listings like this in once very popular neighborhoods (I would never live on this block): https://redf.in/QIx61E

Given the transaction cost (5%), if they sell at 1m they are breaking even, but chances are they will have to cut their price to sell (been on market for a while now), especially given that there is a decent amount of inventory in that area currently.

Yeah would never live on that block, especially after Covid, pre-covid that area was fine but now, it is literally infested with crime.

Petworth has always been meh. There was a contingent that swore they could will it nice with coffee shops and a blog but it never really got there. Petworth now is still the Petworth of yesterday. It’s the hope that is gone that and the ability to kid one’s self.

+1 Petworth never quite made it. It used to be called NotYetWorth. Now the crime is worse than it was 5 years ago. Petworth is the canary in the coal mine for DC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's anecdotal, but my house was appraised in 2019 and again last week. $250K drop. Not shocking. I'm still very much coming out ahead since I bought in 2007 and we're not in a position to leave for a while, so here's hoping that things get better in the next ten years or so.

Can I ask, why the appraisal if you're not selling any time soon? Can't be for refinancing.

I'm PP - it's for a HELOC to do some improvements since we're stuck for a while. My very low mortgage rate is one of the things keeping me here and I'm not touching it!

[Anonymous]

Supply is still way too constrained for there to be real price decreases. And even if the price gets knocked down by 10%, you're still at +15-20% over the pre-pandemic prices.

In short, crime can go bananas and prices won't come down enough in cities to make it affordable to the middle class.

The White Flight of the 1960s was enabled by affordable, close-in, new construction suburbs where there was plenty of land to develop cheaply. That cheap land doesn't exist today.