When Will Crime Start Affecting Prices?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Unless they are murdering home buyers why would it matter.

I guess if you have low standards for quality of living, it's sufficient to be content so long as you yourself are not being murdered.

In the US (or at least in DC), I guess we have just accepted a certain level of crime as normal. It is kind of sad, as we do not need to live this way. In Europe, the quality of life is much higher. I hope that somehow things will improve in the future, but I am not optimistic.

[Anonymous]

Shifts like this take time. We left DC over one year ago due to crime and local politics (which leads to more crime and other negative outcomes).

DC is the new San Francisco. Some will love it, and others will try to escape.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:While there is an increase in crime, it doesn't outweigh all the other factors. The odds of me being carjacked are still really low. The odds of me having a crappy commute from Virginia are pretty high.

It's really hard to parse hype about crime from actual risk, but I guess home prices speak loudly.

Last I checked there are stops in Va that are only a few metro stops to downtown. I wouldn’t call that crappy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Shifts like this take time. We left DC over one year ago due to crime and local politics (which leads to more crime and other negative outcomes).

DC is the new San Francisco. Some will love it, and others will try to escape.

I dont agree. I have been in DC since 2001, a time when the city was overall more dangerous, i was coming to a super safe place (like ONE homicide would be such a big deal of taking half the first page of the newspaper) and I am a chicken but i still chose to live in DC instead of the burbs, just chose upper NW where i felt safe. When i bought in 2010, i also chose to stay and send young kids to DCPS. I felt our area was safe and the city in general was improving. For the first time now i am considering selling and leaving. Tipping point was a shooting right across from JR right before dismissal (my kid was a student, the second was locked down at Deal), then the shooting by Brandwine on Saturday afternoon, my kid could have been there if sue had not just left for college as she loved to spend time at politics and prose and then walk down CT to a friend’s house on saturdays. Ine thing is me one thing my kids, my level of risk tolerance for the lives or my kids is almost zero. And now the spike in carjackings, including right where i live, on CT on a Monday morning during rush hour. I am sure i am not the only one as several friends, much braver than me, are thinking the same. A friend who bought in Petworth when it was still not exactly trendy sold recently after a few episodes where he has to duck in his rowhouse due to gunshots outside, something never happened before since he bought in 2006. The reason i think things may not go down the drain is that people like me, who were distracted last time we voted, are now laser focused on crime. I am not going to vote for a maga type populist fascist, but for sure i am going to look carefully at all the candidates for local elections (something i confessed i did mot do before) and vote for whoever offer reasonable solutions on crime.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Shifts like this take time. We left DC over one year ago due to crime and local politics (which leads to more crime and other negative outcomes).

DC is the new San Francisco. Some will love it, and others will try to escape.

I dont agree. I have been in DC since 2001, a time when the city was overall more dangerous, i was coming to a super safe place (like ONE homicide would be such a big deal of taking half the first page of the newspaper) and I am a chicken but i still chose to live in DC instead of the burbs, just chose upper NW where i felt safe. When i bought in 2010, i also chose to stay and send young kids to DCPS. I felt our area was safe and the city in general was improving. For the first time now i am considering selling and leaving. Tipping point was a shooting right across from JR right before dismissal (my kid was a student, the second was locked down at Deal), then the shooting by Brandwine on Saturday afternoon, my kid could have been there if sue had not just left for college as she loved to spend time at politics and prose and then walk down CT to a friend’s house on saturdays. Ine thing is me one thing my kids, my level of risk tolerance for the lives or my kids is almost zero. And now the spike in carjackings, including right where i live, on CT on a Monday morning during rush hour. I am sure i am not the only one as several friends, much braver than me, are thinking the same. A friend who bought in Petworth when it was still not exactly trendy sold recently after a few episodes where he has to duck in his rowhouse due to gunshots outside, something never happened before since he bought in 2006. The reason i think things may not go down the drain is that people like me, who were distracted last time we voted, are now laser focused on crime. I am not going to vote for a maga type populist fascist, but for sure i am going to look carefully at all the candidates for local elections (something i confessed i did mot do before) and vote for whoever offer reasonable solutions on crime.

100%. SF is not comparable; it has had a different trajectory where other aspects of the city started slowly degrading before crime really increased, and it still doesn't have nearly the violent crime rate that DC has. People are willing to accept that slow burn of issues but not a sudden burst of violence like DC has had. It's a top concern for most people I know and I think it's going to show in the election.

[Anonymous]

While I am only an armchair real estate quarterback you definitely see homes taking much longer to sell in the higher crime or more recently transitioned areas across DC versus the leafy more mature northwest areas of single family homes that continue to sell pretty well.

https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/how_fast_are_homes_selling_in_dc/21703

[Anonymous]

I’ve always been in the burbs but wanted to live in the city. But no more. I go into the city weekly and I’m always sad that it it should be the nicest, cleanest, safest city in the country and it’s got tents and crime everywhere. I can’t believe people from all over the world come to visit America and this is what they experience.

[Anonymous]

I sold my home last spring in the H St corridor because crime was increasing and I didn’t like the slog to the area in general, and felt less safe biking (the quickest way to get around there by far) due to the lack of any enforcement of anything whatsoever, speeding, fake plates, etc. I’m pretty confident I got at least $100K/10% more for my house last spring than what it’d sell for now. In contrast prices are up in most of close-in VA.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:While there is an increase in crime, it doesn't outweigh all the other factors. The odds of me being carjacked are still really low. The odds of me having a crappy commute from Virginia are pretty high.

It's really hard to parse hype about crime from actual risk, but I guess home prices speak loudly.

Last I checked there are stops in Va that are only a few metro stops to downtown. I wouldn’t call that crappy.

I can see that working if you're ok with an apartment in Arlington. But the point is that cost/house/distance tradeoff is the big one for me. Crime is an issue, but much smaller than the other tradeoffs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:While there is an increase in crime, it doesn't outweigh all the other factors. The odds of me being carjacked are still really low. The odds of me having a crappy commute from Virginia are pretty high.

It's really hard to parse hype about crime from actual risk, but I guess home prices speak loudly.

Last I checked there are stops in Va that are only a few metro stops to downtown. I wouldn’t call that crappy.

I can see that working if you're ok with an apartment in Arlington. But the point is that cost/house/distance tradeoff is the big one for me. Crime is an issue, but much smaller than the other tradeoffs.

Yeah, if you can afford a house near a close in VA metro stop you can afford a house in a part of DC where crime is just as negligible as it VA. If you can't you're downgrading to an apartment or moving to the hinterlands with an awful commute.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There's a scene in American Psycho where a realtor cleans up and hides a macabre scene leftover from a serial killer just so she could sell a posh condo. I imagine DC will be like that before prices go down. Restaurants with outside seats and bullet proof partitions next to the sidewalk too.

This is unhinged, seek help.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:While there is an increase in crime, it doesn't outweigh all the other factors. The odds of me being carjacked are still really low. The odds of me having a crappy commute from Virginia are pretty high.

It's really hard to parse hype about crime from actual risk, but I guess home prices speak loudly.

Last I checked there are stops in Va that are only a few metro stops to downtown. I wouldn’t call that crappy.

Yes. It’s often a quicker drive or public transit ride from close-in Northern Va to downtown, Capitol Hill, Georgetown, Tenleytown, etc., than from other areas in D.C.

[Anonymous]

Two friends sold their townhomes in Shaw this year. Both had bought in the last 5 years in the 900s, put significant work in, and wanted a bit about 1m. Both had to price drop several times over several months before selling for less than they bought for. At least two families in DS's kindergarten class moved to rent in our neighborhood to get away from violence in different areas before their kids started school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:While there is an increase in crime, it doesn't outweigh all the other factors. The odds of me being carjacked are still really low. The odds of me having a crappy commute from Virginia are pretty high.

It's really hard to parse hype about crime from actual risk, but I guess home prices speak loudly.

This was always the calculus, but with WFH and hybrid here to stay I’m willing to bet that a lot of home buyers won’t put commute over a lower sense of personal safety. Also, the days of the city being the only place to go for nice restaurants/bars is over. A lot of the inner suburbs offer the same type of walkable amenities, but with lower crime. Bethesda, Arlington, Del Ray, and some of the close in town centers like Mosaic come to mind.

Wait, what? Did you just call Merrifield "close in" ?

[Anonymous]

I've noticed several houses in close in Capitol Hill are sitting on the market with price cuts. It seems like even six months ago this wouldn't be happening.