The prognosticator formerly known as swami (TPFKAS)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Choose me! PK3 please, only preference is IB school (Bunker Hill)

1. Inspired Teaching
2. DC Bilingual
3. Yu Ying
4. Stokes Brookland Fr
5. Stokes Brookland Sp
6. School-Within-School
7. SWW @ FS
8. LAMB
9. Burroughs
10. Center City Brightwood
11. Langdon
12. Bunker Hill

I'm fascinated by lottery logic and reasoning. I mostly understand your approach but I'm struggling with why ITS is ahead of bilingual programs. Can I ask what's driving that? I am in no way judging or taking a shot or telling you that I think your opinion is wrong. Just trying to understand how other families approached the lottery.

That’s a good question and one I’m still considering. While I would love immersion, I think getting into a quality middle school was a concern. On the tours, even the feeder schools aren’t guaranteed a spot at DCI. The only one that kind of is was Yu Ying but with the expansion due to Kirov I don’t think that will last (they mentioned adding a PK3 class). So for me, seeing how well ITS scores makes me hope I can get a one and done until high school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Okay, how about this one. Odds of eventually getting into any Deal feeder for 2nd-5th grade. One kid, no preferences.

In the classic conundrum where we don’t want to leave our current elementary school, but are worried about waiting too long and not jumping for the pathway when we have the chance.

Also happy to hear about any upcoming renovation plans that could open up spots in the next few years. Would consider Hardy feeders, but really not enthused about doing that cross town commute longer than absolutely necessary.

Okay, so I am the Lottery Fortune Teller, and I actually did the math on this.

Taking the average of the changes of getting in over the past four years, taking into account that you have no preference, here are the odds:

Janney: 2nd - 1%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 2%
Murch: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 6%
Lafayette: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 4%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 17%. Chances if you try all four years: 28%
Bancroft: 2nd - 0%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 28%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Hearst: 2nd - 13%, 3rd - 9%, 4th - 1%, 5th - 3%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Shepherd: 2nd - 17%, 3rd - 17%, 4th - 16%, 5th - 19%. Chances if you try all four years: 53%

Which means if you try all six schools, all four years, your overall chances of getting into one are: 86%

Not bad odds at all!

Couple of notes - a lot of these percentages are driven by one good year. Ex: Bancroft in 2020-2021 offered 15 kids in off the waitlist for fifth grade. Hearst offered 25 kids a spot off the waitlist for 2nd grade in 2021-2022. So there's a TON of variety here, year to year and grade to grade.

Also - if you really, really want this - you HAVE to be willing to move your kid in September. A lot of these numbers are clearly driven by a single seat being offered to a ton of kids after school had already started. If you're unwilling to move your kid after school starts, your chances drop significantly. I didn't do the math, but I'd guess they go from mid 80s down to less than half.

That was fun!

This is not accurate because you get one lottery number each year. It's not like each school runs as separate lottery.

OP, I would start applying to the schools you are interested in as soon as possible, and just see if you have luck. If you got into say Shepherd for PK or K, I would move my kid then and not wait to hold out in the hopes of having another good lottery year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Choose me! PK3 please, only preference is IB school (Bunker Hill)

1. Inspired Teaching
2. DC Bilingual
3. Yu Ying
4. Stokes Brookland Fr
5. Stokes Brookland Sp
6. School-Within-School
7. SWW @ FS
8. LAMB
9. Burroughs
10. Center City Brightwood
11. Langdon
12. Bunker Hill

I'm fascinated by lottery logic and reasoning. I mostly understand your approach but I'm struggling with why ITS is ahead of bilingual programs. Can I ask what's driving that? I am in no way judging or taking a shot or telling you that I think your opinion is wrong. Just trying to understand how other families approached the lottery.

That’s a good question and one I’m still considering. While I would love immersion, I think getting into a quality middle school was a concern. On the tours, even the feeder schools aren’t guaranteed a spot at DCI. The only one that kind of is was Yu Ying but with the expansion due to Kirov I don’t think that will last (they mentioned adding a PK3 class). So for me, seeing how well ITS scores makes me hope I can get a one and done until high school.

Thanks for the explanation. Appreciate hearing how others approach it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:To the person applying for 2nd grade seats, ITS only does equitable for pre-k. Otherwise, you're behind the sibling preference folks.

I was the first one asking about 5th grade. I also have equitable access for my kiddo.

Cooper
ITS
Latin OG

How are you guys getting equitable access??

Who is eligible for Equitable Access Designated Seats?
Prospective students eligible for Equitable Access Designated Seats are those who:
qualify for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) or the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), OR
are identified as homeless during the academic year, OR
are under the care of the Child and Family Services Agency (CFSA or “foster care”), OR
are high school students at least one year older than the expected age for their grade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:To the person applying for 2nd grade seats, ITS only does equitable for pre-k. Otherwise, you're behind the sibling preference folks.

I was the first one asking about 5th grade. I also have equitable access for my kiddo.

Cooper
ITS
Latin OG

How are you guys getting equitable access??

Who is eligible for Equitable Access Designated Seats?
Prospective students eligible for Equitable Access Designated Seats are those who:
qualify for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) or the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), OR
are identified as homeless during the academic year, OR
are under the care of the Child and Family Services Agency (CFSA or “foster care”), OR
are high school students at least one year older than the expected age for their grade.

So presumably pp meets one of those criteria. 22% of DC residents get SNAP and 57% of SNAP households have kids per https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/a-closer-look-at-who-benefits-from-snap-state-by-state-fact-sheets#District_of_Columbia so lots of people qualify for the at-risk preference.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:To the person applying for 2nd grade seats, ITS only does equitable for pre-k. Otherwise, you're behind the sibling preference folks.

I was the first one asking about 5th grade. I also have equitable access for my kiddo.

Cooper
ITS
Latin OG

How are you guys getting equitable access??

Who is eligible for Equitable Access Designated Seats?
Prospective students eligible for Equitable Access Designated Seats are those who:
qualify for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) or the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), OR
are identified as homeless during the academic year, OR
are under the care of the Child and Family Services Agency (CFSA or “foster care”), OR
are high school students at least one year older than the expected age for their grade.

Can someone please point me to the data that shows EA is being offered other than in entry grades?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:To the person applying for 2nd grade seats, ITS only does equitable for pre-k. Otherwise, you're behind the sibling preference folks.

I was the first one asking about 5th grade. I also have equitable access for my kiddo.

Cooper
ITS
Latin OG

How are you guys getting equitable access??

Who is eligible for Equitable Access Designated Seats?
Prospective students eligible for Equitable Access Designated Seats are those who:
qualify for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) or the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), OR
are identified as homeless during the academic year, OR
are under the care of the Child and Family Services Agency (CFSA or “foster care”), OR
are high school students at least one year older than the expected age for their grade.

Does that last one mean if parents choose to redshirt their kid they are eligible for EA seats later? That's interesting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:To the person applying for 2nd grade seats, ITS only does equitable for pre-k. Otherwise, you're behind the sibling preference folks.

I was the first one asking about 5th grade. I also have equitable access for my kiddo.

Cooper
ITS
Latin OG

How are you guys getting equitable access??

Who is eligible for Equitable Access Designated Seats?
Prospective students eligible for Equitable Access Designated Seats are those who:
qualify for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) or the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), OR
are identified as homeless during the academic year, OR
are under the care of the Child and Family Services Agency (CFSA or “foster care”), OR
are high school students at least one year older than the expected age for their grade.

Does that last one mean if parents choose to redshirt their kid they are eligible for EA seats later? That's interesting.

I think it does. But dcps doesn't really do a lot of redshirting, I don't think a lot of schools do ea preference for high school. It would be a pretty silly reason to redshirt

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:To the person applying for 2nd grade seats, ITS only does equitable for pre-k. Otherwise, you're behind the sibling preference folks.

I was the first one asking about 5th grade. I also have equitable access for my kiddo.

Cooper
ITS
Latin OG

How are you guys getting equitable access??

Who is eligible for Equitable Access Designated Seats?
Prospective students eligible for Equitable Access Designated Seats are those who:
qualify for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) or the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), OR
are identified as homeless during the academic year, OR
are under the care of the Child and Family Services Agency (CFSA or “foster care”), OR
are high school students at least one year older than the expected age for their grade.

Does that last one mean if parents choose to redshirt their kid they are eligible for EA seats later? That's interesting.

I think it does. But dcps doesn't really do a lot of redshirting, I don't think a lot of schools do ea preference for high school. It would be a pretty silly reason to redshirt

I would have done it 13 years ago if it gave me better odds in the lottery coming up, our current list:
SWW
Latin
JR
MacArthur