The prognosticator formerly known as swami (TPFKAS)

[Anonymous]

It's probably time to pass the torch to a new TPFKAS. We love you so much old TPFKAS but we know you've (mostly) moved on. We know, we know, it wasn't us, it was you. At least we tell ourselves while we cry into our morning coffee while we miss your loving snark. But for everyone else, do you think you have what it takes to be the new TPFKAS? Or maybe you just want feedback on your lottery chances? Post your ECE lottery lists and all the would-be swamis...er...seers can audition with their own brand of wit and wisdom. Good luck!

[Anonymous]

I'm not Swami but I have lived in DC for 20 years and done the lottery three times and know the percentages, so to speak, for most schools east of North/South Capital street. I'm happy to issue educated guess predictions for hopefully families on the East side, and not just for PK3. Throw me your MS lists too, I got you!

- Cassandra

[Anonymous]

Oooo... I wanna try! I will tell you your Lottery Fortune...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm not Swami but I have lived in DC for 20 years and done the lottery three times and know the percentages, so to speak, for most schools east of North/South Capital street. I'm happy to issue educated guess predictions for hopefully families on the East side, and not just for PK3. Throw me your MS lists too, I got you!

- Cassandra

You'll be right, but they won't believe you and it'll end in tragedy, amirite?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm not Swami but I have lived in DC for 20 years and done the lottery three times and know the percentages, so to speak, for most schools east of North/South Capital street. I'm happy to issue educated guess predictions for hopefully families on the East side, and not just for PK3. Throw me your MS lists too, I got you!

- Cassandra

You'll be right, but they won't believe you and it'll end in tragedy, amirite?

Obviously

[Anonymous]

Me! Pick me! I will be awesome!

--Langley Booster

[Anonymous]

Okay, how about this one. Odds of eventually getting into any Deal feeder for 2nd-5th grade. One kid, no preferences.

In the classic conundrum where we don’t want to leave our current elementary school, but are worried about waiting too long and not jumping for the pathway when we have the chance.

Also happy to hear about any upcoming renovation plans that could open up spots in the next few years. Would consider Hardy feeders, but really not enthused about doing that cross town commute longer than absolutely necessary.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Okay, how about this one. Odds of eventually getting into any Deal feeder for 2nd-5th grade. One kid, no preferences.

In the classic conundrum where we don’t want to leave our current elementary school, but are worried about waiting too long and not jumping for the pathway when we have the chance.

Also happy to hear about any upcoming renovation plans that could open up spots in the next few years. Would consider Hardy feeders, but really not enthused about doing that cross town commute longer than absolutely necessary.

I’m not clever enough to audition for the new swami role but I think your best bets are Hearst, Lafayette, and shepherd. Some grades’ WLs actually moved quite a bit at those schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Okay, how about this one. Odds of eventually getting into any Deal feeder for 2nd-5th grade. One kid, no preferences.

In the classic conundrum where we don’t want to leave our current elementary school, but are worried about waiting too long and not jumping for the pathway when we have the chance.

Also happy to hear about any upcoming renovation plans that could open up spots in the next few years. Would consider Hardy feeders, but really not enthused about doing that cross town commute longer than absolutely necessary.

Okay, so I am the Lottery Fortune Teller, and I actually did the math on this.

Taking the average of the changes of getting in over the past four years, taking into account that you have no preference, here are the odds:

Janney: 2nd - 1%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 2%
Murch: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 6%
Lafayette: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 4%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 17%. Chances if you try all four years: 28%
Bancroft: 2nd - 0%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 28%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Hearst: 2nd - 13%, 3rd - 9%, 4th - 1%, 5th - 3%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Shepherd: 2nd - 17%, 3rd - 17%, 4th - 16%, 5th - 19%. Chances if you try all four years: 53%

Which means if you try all six schools, all four years, your overall chances of getting into one are: 86%

Not bad odds at all!

Couple of notes - a lot of these percentages are driven by one good year. Ex: Bancroft in 2020-2021 offered 15 kids in off the waitlist for fifth grade. Hearst offered 25 kids a spot off the waitlist for 2nd grade in 2021-2022. So there's a TON of variety here, year to year and grade to grade.

Also - if you really, really want this - you HAVE to be willing to move your kid in September. A lot of these numbers are clearly driven by a single seat being offered to a ton of kids after school had already started. If you're unwilling to move your kid after school starts, your chances drop significantly. I didn't do the math, but I'd guess they go from mid 80s down to less than half.

That was fun!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Okay, how about this one. Odds of eventually getting into any Deal feeder for 2nd-5th grade. One kid, no preferences.

In the classic conundrum where we don’t want to leave our current elementary school, but are worried about waiting too long and not jumping for the pathway when we have the chance.

Also happy to hear about any upcoming renovation plans that could open up spots in the next few years. Would consider Hardy feeders, but really not enthused about doing that cross town commute longer than absolutely necessary.

Okay, so I am the Lottery Fortune Teller, and I actually did the math on this.

Taking the average of the changes of getting in over the past four years, taking into account that you have no preference, here are the odds:

Janney: 2nd - 1%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 2%
Murch: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 6%
Lafayette: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 4%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 17%. Chances if you try all four years: 28%
Bancroft: 2nd - 0%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 28%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Hearst: 2nd - 13%, 3rd - 9%, 4th - 1%, 5th - 3%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Shepherd: 2nd - 17%, 3rd - 17%, 4th - 16%, 5th - 19%. Chances if you try all four years: 53%

Which means if you try all six schools, all four years, your overall chances of getting into one are: 86%

Not bad odds at all!

Couple of notes - a lot of these percentages are driven by one good year. Ex: Bancroft in 2020-2021 offered 15 kids in off the waitlist for fifth grade. Hearst offered 25 kids a spot off the waitlist for 2nd grade in 2021-2022. So there's a TON of variety here, year to year and grade to grade.

Also - if you really, really want this - you HAVE to be willing to move your kid in September. A lot of these numbers are clearly driven by a single seat being offered to a ton of kids after school had already started. If you're unwilling to move your kid after school starts, your chances drop significantly. I didn't do the math, but I'd guess they go from mid 80s down to less than half.

That was fun!

The problem with your approach is that is assumes independent chance for each school for each year. The reality is that your chance in any given year is the same (or highly correlated). For example, if your number stinks and you have no chance of matching at Janney, you are also not getting into Murch.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Okay, how about this one. Odds of eventually getting into any Deal feeder for 2nd-5th grade. One kid, no preferences.

In the classic conundrum where we don’t want to leave our current elementary school, but are worried about waiting too long and not jumping for the pathway when we have the chance.

Also happy to hear about any upcoming renovation plans that could open up spots in the next few years. Would consider Hardy feeders, but really not enthused about doing that cross town commute longer than absolutely necessary.

Okay, so I am the Lottery Fortune Teller, and I actually did the math on this.

Taking the average of the changes of getting in over the past four years, taking into account that you have no preference, here are the odds:

Janney: 2nd - 1%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 2%
Murch: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 6%
Lafayette: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 4%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 17%. Chances if you try all four years: 28%
Bancroft: 2nd - 0%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 28%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Hearst: 2nd - 13%, 3rd - 9%, 4th - 1%, 5th - 3%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Shepherd: 2nd - 17%, 3rd - 17%, 4th - 16%, 5th - 19%. Chances if you try all four years: 53%

Which means if you try all six schools, all four years, your overall chances of getting into one are: 86%

Not bad odds at all!

Couple of notes - a lot of these percentages are driven by one good year. Ex: Bancroft in 2020-2021 offered 15 kids in off the waitlist for fifth grade. Hearst offered 25 kids a spot off the waitlist for 2nd grade in 2021-2022. So there's a TON of variety here, year to year and grade to grade.

Also - if you really, really want this - you HAVE to be willing to move your kid in September. A lot of these numbers are clearly driven by a single seat being offered to a ton of kids after school had already started. If you're unwilling to move your kid after school starts, your chances drop significantly. I didn't do the math, but I'd guess they go from mid 80s down to less than half.

That was fun!

The problem with your approach is that is assumes independent chance for each school for each year. The reality is that your chance in any given year is the same (or highly correlated). For example, if your number stinks and you have no chance of matching at Janney, you are also not getting into Murch.

Another problem is that if your kid doesn't speak Spanish, are you really going to send them to 5th grade at Bancroft just to get a slot at Deal?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Okay, how about this one. Odds of eventually getting into any Deal feeder for 2nd-5th grade. One kid, no preferences.

In the classic conundrum where we don’t want to leave our current elementary school, but are worried about waiting too long and not jumping for the pathway when we have the chance.

Also happy to hear about any upcoming renovation plans that could open up spots in the next few years. Would consider Hardy feeders, but really not enthused about doing that cross town commute longer than absolutely necessary.

Okay, so I am the Lottery Fortune Teller, and I actually did the math on this.

Taking the average of the changes of getting in over the past four years, taking into account that you have no preference, here are the odds:

Janney: 2nd - 1%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 2%
Murch: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 6%
Lafayette: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 4%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 17%. Chances if you try all four years: 28%
Bancroft: 2nd - 0%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 28%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Hearst: 2nd - 13%, 3rd - 9%, 4th - 1%, 5th - 3%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Shepherd: 2nd - 17%, 3rd - 17%, 4th - 16%, 5th - 19%. Chances if you try all four years: 53%

Which means if you try all six schools, all four years, your overall chances of getting into one are: 86%

Not bad odds at all!

Couple of notes - a lot of these percentages are driven by one good year. Ex: Bancroft in 2020-2021 offered 15 kids in off the waitlist for fifth grade. Hearst offered 25 kids a spot off the waitlist for 2nd grade in 2021-2022. So there's a TON of variety here, year to year and grade to grade.

Also - if you really, really want this - you HAVE to be willing to move your kid in September. A lot of these numbers are clearly driven by a single seat being offered to a ton of kids after school had already started. If you're unwilling to move your kid after school starts, your chances drop significantly. I didn't do the math, but I'd guess they go from mid 80s down to less than half.

That was fun!

The problem with your approach is that is assumes independent chance for each school for each year. The reality is that your chance in any given year is the same (or highly correlated). For example, if your number stinks and you have no chance of matching at Janney, you are also not getting into Murch.

Another problem is that if your kid doesn't speak Spanish, are you really going to send them to 5th grade at Bancroft just to get a slot at Deal?

Pretty sure to take the Bancroft spot, you would need to demonstrate Spanish proficiency.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Okay, how about this one. Odds of eventually getting into any Deal feeder for 2nd-5th grade. One kid, no preferences.

In the classic conundrum where we don’t want to leave our current elementary school, but are worried about waiting too long and not jumping for the pathway when we have the chance.

Also happy to hear about any upcoming renovation plans that could open up spots in the next few years. Would consider Hardy feeders, but really not enthused about doing that cross town commute longer than absolutely necessary.

Okay, so I am the Lottery Fortune Teller, and I actually did the math on this.

Taking the average of the changes of getting in over the past four years, taking into account that you have no preference, here are the odds:

Janney: 2nd - 1%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 2%
Murch: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 6%
Lafayette: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 4%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 17%. Chances if you try all four years: 28%
Bancroft: 2nd - 0%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 28%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Hearst: 2nd - 13%, 3rd - 9%, 4th - 1%, 5th - 3%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Shepherd: 2nd - 17%, 3rd - 17%, 4th - 16%, 5th - 19%. Chances if you try all four years: 53%

Which means if you try all six schools, all four years, your overall chances of getting into one are: 86%

Not bad odds at all!

Couple of notes - a lot of these percentages are driven by one good year. Ex: Bancroft in 2020-2021 offered 15 kids in off the waitlist for fifth grade. Hearst offered 25 kids a spot off the waitlist for 2nd grade in 2021-2022. So there's a TON of variety here, year to year and grade to grade.

Also - if you really, really want this - you HAVE to be willing to move your kid in September. A lot of these numbers are clearly driven by a single seat being offered to a ton of kids after school had already started. If you're unwilling to move your kid after school starts, your chances drop significantly. I didn't do the math, but I'd guess they go from mid 80s down to less than half.

That was fun!

The problem with your approach is that is assumes independent chance for each school for each year. The reality is that your chance in any given year is the same (or highly correlated). For example, if your number stinks and you have no chance of matching at Janney, you are also not getting into Murch.

Another problem is that if your kid doesn't speak Spanish, are you really going to send them to 5th grade at Bancroft just to get a slot at Deal?

Pretty sure to take the Bancroft spot, you would need to demonstrate Spanish proficiency.

Original PP here. We do speak Spanish and DC is biliterate, so that wouldn’t be a problem. Thank you, non-swami, for the number crunching! And PP for pointing out the limitations. Shepherd seems like the best bet, but who knows how the lottery will shake out. Best of luck to everyone this year!

[Anonymous]

Swami here.

I loved being the Swami/seer.

Thank you for letting me be a part of your DCUM journey.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Okay, how about this one. Odds of eventually getting into any Deal feeder for 2nd-5th grade. One kid, no preferences.

In the classic conundrum where we don’t want to leave our current elementary school, but are worried about waiting too long and not jumping for the pathway when we have the chance.

Also happy to hear about any upcoming renovation plans that could open up spots in the next few years. Would consider Hardy feeders, but really not enthused about doing that cross town commute longer than absolutely necessary.

Okay, so I am the Lottery Fortune Teller, and I actually did the math on this.

Taking the average of the changes of getting in over the past four years, taking into account that you have no preference, here are the odds:

Janney: 2nd - 1%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 2%
Murch: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 6%
Lafayette: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 4%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 17%. Chances if you try all four years: 28%
Bancroft: 2nd - 0%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 28%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Hearst: 2nd - 13%, 3rd - 9%, 4th - 1%, 5th - 3%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Shepherd: 2nd - 17%, 3rd - 17%, 4th - 16%, 5th - 19%. Chances if you try all four years: 53%

Which means if you try all six schools, all four years, your overall chances of getting into one are: 86%

Not bad odds at all!

Couple of notes - a lot of these percentages are driven by one good year. Ex: Bancroft in 2020-2021 offered 15 kids in off the waitlist for fifth grade. Hearst offered 25 kids a spot off the waitlist for 2nd grade in 2021-2022. So there's a TON of variety here, year to year and grade to grade.

Also - if you really, really want this - you HAVE to be willing to move your kid in September. A lot of these numbers are clearly driven by a single seat being offered to a ton of kids after school had already started. If you're unwilling to move your kid after school starts, your chances drop significantly. I didn't do the math, but I'd guess they go from mid 80s down to less than half.

That was fun!

The problem with your approach is that is assumes independent chance for each school for each year. The reality is that your chance in any given year is the same (or highly correlated). For example, if your number stinks and you have no chance of matching at Janney, you are also not getting into Murch.

Love seeing these numbers, but one has to think numbers from the last four years were skewed by the pandemic, when more parents were moving away or moving their kids to privates because DCPS was comparatively slow to reopen its school buildings. At least at our school (which is on your list), that has slowed to a trickle.