Does anybody have a grip on the housing market?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am seeing a huge surge in inventory that I haven’t seen since last fall. I think with rates slightly dipping, people are testing the waters again.

Inventory driven by whom or what?

People trading up? Investors getting out? Tons of people relocating? Old people retiring and moving to low cola places?

Who’s selling and why?

[Anonymous]

I feel like a lot of UMC/high income families that don’t have a SFH are still trying to buy even though it financially doesn’t always make sense so that keeps demand up and the interest rates keep supply low ish. So everything is out of whack.

[Anonymous]

Bubbles in housing really take a long time to deflate. If you go back and look at the data from 2006 to 2008, there was almost no decrease from 2006 to 2007 then a dramatic decrease from 2007 to 2008 (this is aggregate data published by the fed so while I am sure people will have contrary data points, the aggregate data doesn’t lie). Pent up demand doesn’t go away overnight. I expect this year to stay at peak pricing but I think 2024 is where things will get interesting. But if you’re a buyer, I get that it is tough to wait especially if you’re renting right now.

[Anonymous]

Looks like bidding wars have returned

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ba-PFmHp_7M&t=4s

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Bubbles in housing really take a long time to deflate. If you go back and look at the data from 2006 to 2008, there was almost no decrease from 2006 to 2007 then a dramatic decrease from 2007 to 2008 (this is aggregate data published by the fed so while I am sure people will have contrary data points, the aggregate data doesn’t lie). Pent up demand doesn’t go away overnight. I expect this year to stay at peak pricing but I think 2024 is where things will get interesting. But if you’re a buyer, I get that it is tough to wait especially if you’re renting right now.

+1

I will look at aggregate data than anecdotes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am seeing a huge surge in inventory that I haven’t seen since last fall. I think with rates slightly dipping, people are testing the waters again.

Inventory driven by whom or what?

People trading up? Investors getting out? Tons of people relocating? Old people retiring and moving to low cola places?

Who’s selling and why?

Not the PP, but I will share my observation. I work in related field.

Inventory of houses occupied by old people retiring and moving out. They don't even have mortgage so rate is not an issue for them. They will sell and buy cheaper house somewhere else outright and still have some money left.

I don't see inventory coming from normal families moving up in price range because they have very low rate right now and moving up is extremely expensive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Looks like bidding wars have returned

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ba-PFmHp_7M&t=4s

Loudoun lol

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Bubbles in housing really take a long time to deflate. If you go back and look at the data from 2006 to 2008, there was almost no decrease from 2006 to 2007 then a dramatic decrease from 2007 to 2008 (this is aggregate data published by the fed so while I am sure people will have contrary data points, the aggregate data doesn’t lie). Pent up demand doesn’t go away overnight. I expect this year to stay at peak pricing but I think 2024 is where things will get interesting. But if you’re a buyer, I get that it is tough to wait especially if you’re renting right now.

+1

I will look at aggregate data than anecdotes.

Anecdotes will take some time to turn into data that you can look into. Right now you are looking at December data

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am seeing a huge surge in inventory that I haven’t seen since last fall. I think with rates slightly dipping, people are testing the waters again.

Inventory driven by whom or what?

People trading up? Investors getting out? Tons of people relocating? Old people retiring and moving to low cola places?

Who’s selling and why?

Not the PP, but I will share my observation. I work in related field.

Inventory of houses occupied by old people retiring and moving out. They don't even have mortgage so rate is not an issue for them. They will sell and buy cheaper house somewhere else outright and still have some money left.

I don't see inventory coming from normal families moving up in price range because they have very low rate right now and moving up is extremely expensive.

Can’t even downsize in this market, dearie. Would love to unload my SFH in a desirable school district, but want to stay in the general area for commuting, want to get rid of the yard and out of the neighborhood of school-aged kids. But can’t, Sad.