Does anybody have a grip on the housing market?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am seeing a huge surge in inventory that I haven’t seen since last fall. I think with rates slightly dipping, people are testing the waters again.

This is called "the spring market."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

AgentX wrote:Real Estate is very very local. Where are you specifically asking about?

I'm seeing houses in all the usual areas having tons of showings again, think: Bethesda, Kensington and even out in the suburbs in NoVa things are still moving along at a decent clip. But condos are suffering still quite a bit no matter where you go.

Some areas are also slower than others - Silver Spring isn't the hot ticket it used to be during the heyday of 2020 - 2022. Homes that would have had multiple offers now sit longer, probably due to the fact that SS is lower priced and often a First Time Buyer Market, and those buyers were hit hardest. Anyone who was on the cusp of qualifying or who had a tight budget and was buying with low interest rates is now effectively, priced out. Those neighborhoods have better values and better deals, but everything is always relative. If any of those other FTHB's can't sell when they need to because rates are too high, this is when you start to see distress sales. One or two won't kill a neighborhood, but a few dozen will.

There is an overall "housing shortage" but again, it's very local. So tell us where you're interested and I can give you a better perspective.

I’m curious about the condo piece of things. Is there a particular reason that market is softer? I’m actually considering buying one, so would love to better understand what’s going on here.

Condos are always in leas demand. Given the choice people want privacy and to not share walls.

There are also more condos available than SFH, at least in my DC neighborhood.

[Anonymous]

Things are gonna stay tight because who is gonna sell their home mortgaged sub 3.0%??!?? It’s stupid bat 🦇 shit crazy. For example, I bought brand new in Vienna at 1.4 million, i refied at 2.87, house is easily 1.8 mill in this market but if I sell and upgrade, wtf dude?? Pay double in mortgage for a slight upgrade? No thank you, I will stay put and screw the equity I got lucky on. This is what sellers are facing, it just doesn’t make any financial sense to sell my house. Conclusion, don’t expect prices to fall significantly because current owners are not stupid enough to sell you their house. Just face the fact that you missed out on this bull run, you have to wait it out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This housing market is going to be the biggest multiplier of inequality that the nation has seen in generations. Unfortunately.

+1

Downward mobility here I come.

[Anonymous]

Prices are not going down materially until there is a flood of inventory hitting the market. This is just not happening yet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

AgentX wrote:Real Estate is very very local. Where are you specifically asking about?

I'm seeing houses in all the usual areas having tons of showings again, think: Bethesda, Kensington and even out in the suburbs in NoVa things are still moving along at a decent clip. But condos are suffering still quite a bit no matter where you go.

Some areas are also slower than others - Silver Spring isn't the hot ticket it used to be during the heyday of 2020 - 2022. Homes that would have had multiple offers now sit longer, probably due to the fact that SS is lower priced and often a First Time Buyer Market, and those buyers were hit hardest. Anyone who was on the cusp of qualifying or who had a tight budget and was buying with low interest rates is now effectively, priced out. Those neighborhoods have better values and better deals, but everything is always relative. If any of those other FTHB's can't sell when they need to because rates are too high, this is when you start to see distress sales. One or two won't kill a neighborhood, but a few dozen will.

There is an overall "housing shortage" but again, it's very local. So tell us where you're interested and I can give you a better perspective.

I’m curious about the condo piece of things. Is there a particular reason that market is softer? I’m actually considering buying one, so would love to better understand what’s going on here.

More inventory coupled with crime and stark decline of dc and dense areas.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Things are gonna stay tight because who is gonna sell their home mortgaged sub 3.0%??!?? It’s stupid bat 🦇 shit crazy. For example, I bought brand new in Vienna at 1.4 million, i refied at 2.87, house is easily 1.8 mill in this market but if I sell and upgrade, wtf dude?? Pay double in mortgage for a slight upgrade? No thank you, I will stay put and screw the equity I got lucky on. This is what sellers are facing, it just doesn’t make any financial sense to sell my house. Conclusion, don’t expect prices to fall significantly because current owners are not stupid enough to sell you their house. Just face the fact that you missed out on this bull run, you have to wait it out.

Some sellers are facing your situation, but many still want to move for schools, get a larger home, move to another area, inherit a home, divorce, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Things are gonna stay tight because who is gonna sell their home mortgaged sub 3.0%??!?? It’s stupid bat 🦇 shit crazy. For example, I bought brand new in Vienna at 1.4 million, i refied at 2.87, house is easily 1.8 mill in this market but if I sell and upgrade, wtf dude?? Pay double in mortgage for a slight upgrade? No thank you, I will stay put and screw the equity I got lucky on. This is what sellers are facing, it just doesn’t make any financial sense to sell my house. Conclusion, don’t expect prices to fall significantly because current owners are not stupid enough to sell you their house. Just face the fact that you missed out on this bull run, you have to wait it out.

Some sellers are facing your situation, but many still want to move for schools, get a larger home, move to another area, inherit a home, divorce, etc.

Yes, but this is why inventory will stay very very low. People will not move unless they really need a life change. We fell into that category, and our new mortgage is not pleasant. We also bought less house than we planned.

[Anonymous]

I wonder, if interest rates never surged up last year, what would have happened to prices? I think, without the surge, the prices would have shortly reached their natural peak, and things would be much better than they are now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I wonder, if interest rates never surged up last year, what would have happened to prices? I think, without the surge, the prices would have shortly reached their natural peak, and things would be much better than they are now.

The issue is that the prices are too high now. The Fed should have raised interest rates in early 2021 to curb prices. They claimed that inflation was transitory so they ignored it. Well you know what else can be transitory? Interest rates.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I wonder, if interest rates never surged up last year, what would have happened to prices? I think, without the surge, the prices would have shortly reached their natural peak, and things would be much better than they are now.

The issue is that the prices are too high now. The Fed should have raised interest rates in early 2021 to curb prices. They claimed that inflation was transitory so they ignored it. Well you know what else can be transitory? Interest rates.

so much this. however we only really know this in retrospect.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I wonder, if interest rates never surged up last year, what would have happened to prices? I think, without the surge, the prices would have shortly reached their natural peak, and things would be much better than they are now.

The issue is that the prices are too high now. The Fed should have raised interest rates in early 2021 to curb prices. They claimed that inflation was transitory so they ignored it. Well you know what else can be transitory? Interest rates.

Ok, yeah I agree, interest rates should have been raised earlier, doing so too late has been a disaster, with ramification for many years to come; now we have high prices and high interest rates--but if rates ever go down, prices will just go up even higher. No one wins

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I wonder, if interest rates never surged up last year, what would have happened to prices? I think, without the surge, the prices would have shortly reached their natural peak, and things would be much better than they are now.

The issue is that the prices are too high now. The Fed should have raised interest rates in early 2021 to curb prices. They claimed that inflation was transitory so they ignored it. Well you know what else can be transitory? Interest rates.

so much this. however we only really know this in retrospect.

I think you're being overly kind here. Home values started spiking in 2020, and had been climbing prior to that. By 2021, home prices were already out of control. The Fed had enough information to raise the rates in early 2021, latest. If home values started going down then they could have lowered the rates again. Enabling 2.5 - 3% interest rates was stupid and they had the data to know that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m trying to understand what is going on in the housing market but it seems like everything I read or anyone professional I speak to all have mixed messages. Articles saying the market is looking better while others saying the housing market is going to drop further and it’s a bad time to be in the market as both a seller and buyer. I’ve also heard a few realtors talk out of both sides of their mouth.

Dmv didn’t have the 40-50% year that southern states had so I’d assume stable prices as last year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

AgentX wrote:Real Estate is very very local. Where are you specifically asking about?

I'm seeing houses in all the usual areas having tons of showings again, think: Bethesda, Kensington and even out in the suburbs in NoVa things are still moving along at a decent clip. But condos are suffering still quite a bit no matter where you go.

Some areas are also slower than others - Silver Spring isn't the hot ticket it used to be during the heyday of 2020 - 2022. Homes that would have had multiple offers now sit longer, probably due to the fact that SS is lower priced and often a First Time Buyer Market, and those buyers were hit hardest. Anyone who was on the cusp of qualifying or who had a tight budget and was buying with low interest rates is now effectively, priced out. Those neighborhoods have better values and better deals, but everything is always relative. If any of those other FTHB's can't sell when they need to because rates are too high, this is when you start to see distress sales. One or two won't kill a neighborhood, but a few dozen will.

There is an overall "housing shortage" but again, it's very local. So tell us where you're interested and I can give you a better perspective.

I’m curious about the condo piece of things. Is there a particular reason that market is softer? I’m actually considering buying one, so would love to better understand what’s going on here.

Condos are always in leas demand. Given the choice people want privacy and to not share walls.

Or big HOA fees, or have to move in less than 7 years. Just go straight to a house.