Will MCPS go virtual the first part of January?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:How is the department of health not forcing them to go virtual? Why is Prince George’s sensible and MoCo ridiculous? They are going to kill people by forcing them back. It will be an epic tidal wave.

We’re you living under a rock for the more than a year schools were virtual and the disaster that was? The hysteria has got to stop. We have done enough harm to children for no good reason.

Go away, we’re talking about numbers. Take your emotions to other threads where you can grind teeth with like-minded people who can’t think past your kids. They are not more important than the health and safety of the community.

You need to rot in hell. Seriously. You are not a public health specialist, and it shows.

More emotions. Sorry, no one takes you seriously with that language.

Nobody takes you seriously regardless of what language you use because you make statements you are not qualified to make.

[Anonymous]

The 5 percent is NOT a positivity rate. It is simply the percentage of students in a school who were positive. The denominator in the number of students in the school, not a number of students who were tested.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
I still don’t get it. MCPS is not testing their entire student body every day or every week. 5 or 10 % of what exactly? Who is testing?

Every day, kids and staff who may be sick or close contacts get tested and that gets reported to the school.

Monday 0 cases
Tuesday 1 student positive
Wednesday 3 students positive
Thursday 2 students and 1 staff positive
Friday 4 positive
Sat 6 students and 2 staff positive
Sunday 13 students and 1 staff positive
Monday 15 students and 0 staff positive
Tuesday 32 students and 2 staff positive
Wednesday 16 students and 0 staff positive
Thursday. 4 students and 1 staff positive
Friday. 18 students and 1 staff positive
Sat 10 students and 0 staff positive
Sun 13 students and 2 staff positive


Over the course of 2 weeks that is 147 total positive

If over the course of 2 weeks... that number is more than 5% of the total school population, that may trigger a school closure.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The 5 percent is NOT a positivity rate. It is simply the percentage of students in a school who were positive. The denominator in the number of students in the school, not a number of students who were tested.

The denominator is the number of students, teachers, and staff at the school, not just the number of students.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I took the 5% positivity rate to be at an individual school. Meaning if 5% of unrelated students/staff test positive at Elementary School #1, it would trigger a conversation re: Elementary School #1 only.
Did I understand that incorrectly?

No, that's exactly right. I think it's clear as day. It just seems like people are willfully trying to twist it into something it's not.

Over 14 day period. So for a school with 500 staff and students, that would be 25 staff and students positive for COVID over 2 weeks. About 2 each day.

This is insane. Are you saying they will wait to close schools until 14 days are done?

Not if they reach 5% before that! How many kids are probably positive right now?

[Anonymous]

In an elementary school with a population of 500, if this weekend the principal asks parents to let her know how many kids have COVID, and asks staff the same, what might the result be?

Maybe 14 kids in the school have COVID and 3 staff members are positive? So that's only 17 total, which isn't the 5% needed (25) to close that school. So school should open. Later that week, they might see another 8 kids test positive, by Thursday maybe? So then the school would switch to virtual.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I took the 5% positivity rate to be at an individual school. Meaning if 5% of unrelated students/staff test positive at Elementary School #1, it would trigger a conversation re: Elementary School #1 only.
Did I understand that incorrectly?

No, that's exactly right. I think it's clear as day. It just seems like people are willfully trying to twist it into something it's not.

Over 14 day period. So for a school with 500 staff and students, that would be 25 staff and students positive for COVID over 2 weeks. About 2 each day.

This is insane. Are you saying they will wait to close schools until 14 days are done?

Not if they reach 5% before that! How many kids are probably positive right now?

But asymptomatic people aren’t going to test unless they had a known exposure, so…

[Anonymous]

What I am not clear about is the effect of kids and staff who haven't tested positive but are close contacts on this calculus.

If a teacher doesn't test positive, but her children did, she's supposed to quarantine. But she isn't counted as part of the necessary 5%, right? What about siblings who have been exposed, but aren't themselves positive?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

But asymptomatic people aren’t going to test unless they had a known exposure, so…

Sure. That's the way to keep your school from shutting down. It's pretty clear - don't test.

[Anonymous]

Ok school day had 10 confirmed + prior to break. How many would have tested + this week? Also bear in mind the test kits sent are only enough for so many tests. Do the math

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Ok school day had 10 confirmed + prior to break. How many would have tested + this week? Also bear in mind the test kits sent are only enough for so many tests. Do the math

How many total students and staff at the school?
What is 5% of that number?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:They should, but their rule states pivot after >5% positivity during 14 days.
If I read that right.

Which means closing in the last two weeks of Jan, after making everything worse.

Today in MD, positivity is at 12%.

I think the 5% positive means 5% of staff and students test positive for the virus.

12% positivity means something different. That means, of those people who took a test, 12% were positive for COVID. It doesn't mean 12% of the population is positive for COVID. Because lots of people didn't take the test.

If there’s 12 or 16% positivity in the community, there’s also a similar number among students and staff, silly.

And of course it’s people taking tests. How else would we know they’re positive?

The positivity rate in MCPS will be the same as the community as s whole.

But no one is testing the ENTIRE Montgomery County community for COVID.
12% test positivity doesn't mean we tested every single person in the county, and 12% of them had COVID.

It means, of the people who showed up for testing (and were able to secure a test) 12% of THOSE people tested positive. Since people with symptoms are much more likely to get tested, and people who are close contact are also more likely, that population skews highly more likely to actually have COVID.

Yes, apples and oranges. Posters trying to equate 12% of a population that went to get tested vs. 5% of an entire population (1) either don't get it and we're fortunate that they're not decisionmakers or (2) are being willfully ignorant.

Apparently, the positivity rate is totally different from the fraction of the population that gets daily COVID. However, the latest data from MD indicate a 15% positivity in ~100,000 daily tests. This simply means ~15000 new cases per day in a population of ~6,000,000. This means that there is 1 confirmed case every 400 people every day. Moreover, the extremely high positivity rate implies that the actual spreading is much higher than the number of confirmed cases. Assuming, conservatively , a number 4 times higher leads to 1 of every 100 people in MD getting COVID each day. Taking also into account that each of these people can spread the virus for at least 5 days, you get that 5% of the entire population is infected and contagious. Now, you have to add that we have these enormous numbers before we reach the peak of the current wave.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The 5 percent is NOT a positivity rate. It is simply the percentage of students in a school who were positive. The denominator in the number of students in the school, not a number of students who were tested.

*Yikes*

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:In an elementary school with a population of 500, if this weekend the principal asks parents to let her know how many kids have COVID, and asks staff the same, what might the result be?

Maybe 14 kids in the school have COVID and 3 staff members are positive? So that's only 17 total, which isn't the 5% needed (25) to close that school. So school should open. Later that week, they might see another 8 kids test positive, by Thursday maybe? So then the school would switch to virtual.

Why would students testing positive over break feed into a decision about school closing? Students were not in school.

[Anonymous]

Ok so the reality is they are not testing every kid every day. Parents are not either. Parents are not going to test their own kid until they are fairly sick. At that point they will already have been in school and contagious. Parents may not report back a positive case because 1) not every MCPS parent will have the time or $ to test, and 2) not every MCPS parent will be able to stay home with their kid for the time required, 3) not every MCPS child is vaccinated… this is a farce.