Will MCPS go virtual the first part of January?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They should, but their rule states pivot after >5% positivity during 14 days.
If I read that right.

Which means closing in the last two weeks of Jan, after making everything worse.

Today in MD, positivity is at 12%.

I think the 5% positive means 5% of staff and students test positive for the virus.

12% positivity means something different. That means, of those people who took a test, 12% were positive for COVID. It doesn't mean 12% of the population is positive for COVID. Because lots of people didn't take the test.

If there’s 12 or 16% positivity in the community, there’s also a similar number among students and staff, silly.

And of course it’s people taking tests. How else would we know they’re positive?

The positivity rate in MCPS will be the same as the community as s whole.

But no one is testing the ENTIRE Montgomery County community for COVID.
12% test positivity doesn't mean we tested every single person in the county, and 12% of them had COVID.

It means, of the people who showed up for testing (and were able to secure a test) 12% of THOSE people tested positive. Since people with symptoms are much more likely to get tested, and people who are close contact are also more likely, that population skews highly more likely to actually have COVID.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I took the 5% positivity rate to be at an individual school. Meaning if 5% of unrelated students/staff test positive at Elementary School #1, it would trigger a conversation re: Elementary School #1 only.
Did I understand that incorrectly?

No, that's exactly right. I think it's clear as day. It just seems like people are willfully trying to twist it into something it's not.

+1

It isn’t at all ambiguous. What are people confused about?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Go away, we’re talking about numbers. Take your emotions to other threads where you can grind teeth with like-minded people who can’t think past your kids. They are not more important than the health and safety of the community.

The community has shown it doesn't care about its own health and safety. If it did, then we wouldn't see cases spiking. So reap what you sow in terms of your own health, and leave my kids in school and away from your misguided thinking.

In order to keep your kids in school, we need the community to care and make it a priority.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How is the department of health not forcing them to go virtual? Why is Prince George’s sensible and MoCo ridiculous? They are going to kill people by forcing them back. It will be an epic tidal wave.

I don't know if you're right PP, but PG's vaccination rate is lower than MoCo's. Their risk-reward calculation is different from ours.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They should, but their rule states pivot after >5% positivity during 14 days.
If I read that right.

Which means closing in the last two weeks of Jan, after making everything worse.

Today in MD, positivity is at 12%.

I think the 5% positive means 5% of staff and students test positive for the virus.

12% positivity means something different. That means, of those people who took a test, 12% were positive for COVID. It doesn't mean 12% of the population is positive for COVID. Because lots of people didn't take the test.

If there’s 12 or 16% positivity in the community, there’s also a similar number among students and staff, silly.

And of course it’s people taking tests. How else would we know they’re positive?

The positivity rate in MCPS will be the same as the community as s whole.

But no one is testing the ENTIRE Montgomery County community for COVID.
12% test positivity doesn't mean we tested every single person in the county, and 12% of them had COVID.

It means, of the people who showed up for testing (and were able to secure a test) 12% of THOSE people tested positive. Since people with symptoms are much more likely to get tested, and people who are close contact are also more likely, that population skews highly more likely to actually have COVID.

It’s likely to be a much higher number. Because so many Omicron cases are asymptomatic or not extreme symptoms at the moment but nonetheless would still be positive. And possible to spread.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They should, but their rule states pivot after >5% positivity during 14 days.
If I read that right.

Which means closing in the last two weeks of Jan, after making everything worse.

Today in MD, positivity is at 12%.

I think the 5% positive means 5% of staff and students test positive for the virus.

12% positivity means something different. That means, of those people who took a test, 12% were positive for COVID. It doesn't mean 12% of the population is positive for COVID. Because lots of people didn't take the test.

If there’s 12 or 16% positivity in the community, there’s also a similar number among students and staff, silly.

And of course it’s people taking tests. How else would we know they’re positive?

The positivity rate in MCPS will be the same as the community as s whole.

But no one is testing the ENTIRE Montgomery County community for COVID.
12% test positivity doesn't mean we tested every single person in the county, and 12% of them had COVID.

It means, of the people who showed up for testing (and were able to secure a test) 12% of THOSE people tested positive. Since people with symptoms are much more likely to get tested, and people who are close contact are also more likely, that population skews highly more likely to actually have COVID.

Yes, apples and oranges. Posters trying to equate 12% of a population that went to get tested vs. 5% of an entire population (1) either don't get it and we're fortunate that they're not decisionmakers or (2) are being willfully ignorant.

[Anonymous]

Isn’t it going to cause a lot more scrambling and grief if they open Jan 3rd but then have to close with an avalanche of teachers out sick?

[Anonymous]

How many threads on this do we need?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They should, but their rule states pivot after >5% positivity during 14 days.
If I read that right.

Which means closing in the last two weeks of Jan, after making everything worse.

Today in MD, positivity is at 12%.

I think the 5% positive means 5% of staff and students test positive for the virus.

12% positivity means something different. That means, of those people who took a test, 12% were positive for COVID. It doesn't mean 12% of the population is positive for COVID. Because lots of people didn't take the test.

If there’s 12 or 16% positivity in the community, there’s also a similar number among students and staff, silly.

And of course it’s people taking tests. How else would we know they’re positive?

The positivity rate in MCPS will be the same as the community as s whole.

But no one is testing the ENTIRE Montgomery County community for COVID.
12% test positivity doesn't mean we tested every single person in the county, and 12% of them had COVID.

It means, of the people who showed up for testing (and were able to secure a test) 12% of THOSE people tested positive. Since people with symptoms are much more likely to get tested, and people who are close contact are also more likely, that population skews highly more likely to actually have COVID.

Yes, apples and oranges. Posters trying to equate 12% of a population that went to get tested vs. 5% of an entire population (1) either don't get it and we're fortunate that they're not decisionmakers or (2) are being willfully ignorant.

I still don’t get it. MCPS is not testing their entire student body every day or every week. 5 or 10 % of what exactly? Who is testing?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I took the 5% positivity rate to be at an individual school. Meaning if 5% of unrelated students/staff test positive at Elementary School #1, it would trigger a conversation re: Elementary School #1 only.
Did I understand that incorrectly?

No, that's exactly right. I think it's clear as day. It just seems like people are willfully trying to twist it into something it's not.

Over 14 day period. So for a school with 500 staff and students, that would be 25 staff and students positive for COVID over 2 weeks. About 2 each day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They should, but their rule states pivot after >5% positivity during 14 days.
If I read that right.

Which means closing in the last two weeks of Jan, after making everything worse.

Today in MD, positivity is at 12%.

I think the 5% positive means 5% of staff and students test positive for the virus.

12% positivity means something different. That means, of those people who took a test, 12% were positive for COVID. It doesn't mean 12% of the population is positive for COVID. Because lots of people didn't take the test.

If there’s 12 or 16% positivity in the community, there’s also a similar number among students and staff, silly.

And of course it’s people taking tests. How else would we know they’re positive?

The positivity rate in MCPS will be the same as the community as s whole.

But no one is testing the ENTIRE Montgomery County community for COVID.
12% test positivity doesn't mean we tested every single person in the county, and 12% of them had COVID.

It means, of the people who showed up for testing (and were able to secure a test) 12% of THOSE people tested positive. Since people with symptoms are much more likely to get tested, and people who are close contact are also more likely, that population skews highly more likely to actually have COVID.

Yes, apples and oranges. Posters trying to equate 12% of a population that went to get tested vs. 5% of an entire population (1) either don't get it and we're fortunate that they're not decisionmakers or (2) are being willfully ignorant.

I still don’t get it. MCPS is not testing their entire student body every day or every week. 5 or 10 % of what exactly? Who is testing?

Five percent would include parent-reported positives.

MCPS really needs to get a test-to-stay program in place. It is absurd to quarantine 95% of students who are healthy. Parents really need to start recognize that if they have to close any schools because of their capricious 5% threshold, it is really due to their own incompetence for not getting a test-to-stay program in place.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They should, but their rule states pivot after >5% positivity during 14 days.
If I read that right.

Which means closing in the last two weeks of Jan, after making everything worse.

Today in MD, positivity is at 12%.

I think the 5% positive means 5% of staff and students test positive for the virus.

12% positivity means something different. That means, of those people who took a test, 12% were positive for COVID. It doesn't mean 12% of the population is positive for COVID. Because lots of people didn't take the test.

If there’s 12 or 16% positivity in the community, there’s also a similar number among students and staff, silly.

And of course it’s people taking tests. How else would we know they’re positive?

The positivity rate in MCPS will be the same as the community as s whole.

But no one is testing the ENTIRE Montgomery County community for COVID.
12% test positivity doesn't mean we tested every single person in the county, and 12% of them had COVID.

It means, of the people who showed up for testing (and were able to secure a test) 12% of THOSE people tested positive. Since people with symptoms are much more likely to get tested, and people who are close contact are also more likely, that population skews highly more likely to actually have COVID.

Yes, apples and oranges. Posters trying to equate 12% of a population that went to get tested vs. 5% of an entire population (1) either don't get it and we're fortunate that they're not decisionmakers or (2) are being willfully ignorant.

I still don’t get it. MCPS is not testing their entire student body every day or every week. 5 or 10 % of what exactly? Who is testing?

If 5% at a given school self-report as positive. Most schools don’t have many students opted into pool testing.

[Anonymous]

This is the guidelines starting in January. They should do mandatory testing. It goes by school, not county.

https://ww2.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/press/index.aspx?pagetype=showrelease&id=12567&type=&startYear=&pageNumber=&mode=

"The following parameter will require the consideration of individual school closures.
To ensure the safety of students and staff, MCPS will be following DHHS guidance around individual school outbreaks as defined by the Maryland Department of Health (MDH) and the Maryland State Department of Education (MSDE). Beginning in January, if 5 percent or more of unrelated students/teachers/staff (minimum of 10 unrelated students/teachers/staff) test positive in a 14-day period, then DHHS and MCPS will work together to determine if the school should be closed for 14 days and the students would transition to virtual learning."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I took the 5% positivity rate to be at an individual school. Meaning if 5% of unrelated students/staff test positive at Elementary School #1, it would trigger a conversation re: Elementary School #1 only.
Did I understand that incorrectly?

No, that's exactly right. I think it's clear as day. It just seems like people are willfully trying to twist it into something it's not.

Over 14 day period. So for a school with 500 staff and students, that would be 25 staff and students positive for COVID over 2 weeks. About 2 each day.

This is insane. Are you saying they will wait to close schools until 14 days are done?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MCPS will not go virtual unless they have so many teacher and staff absences that it makes it impossible to open schools or keep them open.

They got really spooked by universal and widespread quarantine pushback to start the school year. They will not poke that bear again if they want to keep their jobs.

Keep in mind that it’s a campaign year.

That is exactly what will happen. Positivity above 10% right now. Threshold for MCPS is 5%. Discussion centers around exact meaning of the sentence quoted on the first page, in the MCPS letter.

The threshold for MCPS is that 5% of the people in a school (students, staff, teachers) come down with COVID-19 in a two-week period. It is not based on the county's (or state's) overall positivity rate among those who self-select to test.