Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
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Anonymous
Ukraine has decided to fight a bigger country with a bigger army. Russia has decided not to pull out. What would make Russia pull out? Total economic collapse. I think they're very close to it and why they arrested the WSJ reporter. "More than 75 percent of Russian exports are fossil fuels, chemicals, and other products made with fossil fuels." "The price of Russian oil fell from $92.20 a barrel a year ago to $49.50 this month. That’s a 46 percent decline. Those figures come from the Kremlin Finance Ministry" "Russia no longer has oil buyers with strong finances. Its remaining overseas oil customers include Cuba, Egypt, North Korea, and Sri Lanka, all countries with little capacity to pay cash for imported oil." "The Western oil companies with the technological skill to extract oil from the harsh Russian climate—including BP, ExxonMobil, and Shell—have all withdrawn from Russia, which will likely mean damage to Russian oil fields, pipelines, and refineries due to a lack of technical expertise." " Airbus and Boeing jets are being cannibalized for parts" "Putin is also vulnerable because, despite almost as much land mass as America and China combined, the Russian economy is small. In 2021 Russia’s economic output, or gross domestic product, was less than $1.8 trillion, compared to $23.3 trillion for the United States." "California alone has a $3.4 trillion economy, almost twice the size of Russia’s but with only about a fourth as many people" "Russia’s ability to import is also weakened by the falling ruble, down 30 percent against the dollar since the war on Ukraine began in late February 2022. Computers, machinery, and vehicles account for more than 40 percent of Russian imports, items all needed to pursue the war that now cost much more at a time when money to buy these items is tighter than tight." "spending in the first two months of this year was 59 percent greater than in the same period in 2022 and 90 percent more than in 2021." "At the same time, government revenues fell 28 percent and oil revenues fell 46 percent." "In a year, [Putin] has drawn down more than a fifth of the Russian sovereign wealth fund. In September 2021, it stood at 14 billion rubles, but it shrank to 11 billion rubles this month, which is less than $150 billion. For a country the size and population of Russia, that’s not a lot—even without a war." https://newrepublic.com/article/171481/putin-russia-economy-going-broke-fast-why This was a lot to digest, so here's the simple version in basic math. Russia has limited exports besides oil. Putting it a different way, if 1 = the entire income of the Russian economy before the war, oil and government revenues means that the maximum Russia could make is 0.25*(72%) + 0.75*(46%) or about 0.53. That means Russia has about half the spending ability that it had before the war, and some of that revenue damage is permanent since Western businesses pulled out and may never return. But, that's not everything. Spending rose 90% and the 11 Billion Ruble sovereign Wealth Fund dropped in value by 30%. "The two funds are the Reserve Fund, which is invested abroad in low-yield securities and used when oil and gas incomes fall, and the National Wealth Fund, which invests in riskier, higher return vehicles, as well as federal budget expenditures. The Reserve Fund was given $125 billion and the National Wealth Fund was given $32 billion. The fund is controlled by the Ministry of Finance. One of the fund's main responsibilities is to support the Russian pension system.[1]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_National_Wealth_Fund With that said, the question is whether the fund can quickly lose value in a case of internal crisis stemming from a lack of a real "hard currency" reserve? If so, that means Russian pensioners are at risk - and that's a Russian sacred cow (similar to Macron's retirement age). https://www.econlib.org/jeff-sonnenfelds-bombshell-about-the-russian-economy/ We know there is a labor shortage. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-29/putin-s-war-is-intensifying-labor-shortages-in-russia-s-economy#xj4y7vzkg When you look at the propaganda YouTube videos about how Russia is thriving under sanctions, it is clear that Russians are in little danger of running out of food (at least in select cities). However, take a closer look at this video. As yourself why such a big hypermarket (aka supermarket) has such stocked shelves, yet so few shoppers? Also ask why bulk goods would be sold so cheap? My guess is what you don't see are the expiration dates for these items. Russia has lost at least a million of it's population plus the war losses. This would tend to create, first a glut of goods, then due to the lack of manufacturing and production a sharp decline of goods. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbd2veJebME Also compare the video of Anna from Russia last year versus this year. Listen to her voice around [7:00]. She's scared carrying a camera compared to her earlier videos. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo2hc6l5WN0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xASWIeROJhg Something has changed. |
Anonymous
Didn't stop the Saudis, did it? |
Anonymous
Yes. Did you? Did you know that Ukrainian Cyrillic is older than Russian Cyrillic? Did you know that the founding documents for your capitol, Moscow, are in the Ukrainian archives - and why? (psst, it's because they chartered founded it, Kyiv was already a city when Moscow was nothing) |
Did you attend college?
Anonymous
You say this like it means anything. |
Anonymous
Not so "crazy" - do some reading on the Kievan Rus and Vladimir-Suzdal Rus. The founding families of Ukraine are who elevated Moscow from an obscure nothing place in a swamp into a place if meaning. |
Anonymous
Whatever propaganda and revisionism you learned in your Russian schools is of no interest to me |
Anonymous
I’m not here to be of interest to you. Just to challenge an obviously inane assertion that the age of cities means anything. Is St Augustine more important than Chicago? |
Anonymous
Ukrainians will fight a counter-insurgency until the end of time if necessary. This war is unwinnable for Russians in any kind of conventional sense. They will never take Kyiv or Lviv or any part of western Ukraine. The difficult reality though is that a genuine victory is dependent on the success of Ukraine's counter-offensive this Spring and Summer. There isn't enough ammunition to sustain this level of warfare, Both sides are holding back right now, but when it's on they are launching 25,000 shells a day. That is not how NATO fights. This is an old-timey WWI war with trenches and artillery duals combined with drones and precision weapons. The world has never seen anything like this. It's absolutely brutal. And it's not sustainable. No one planned for this kind of war in Europe. Either Ukraine breaks through this year or this goes on for years. But if Russia does something really stupid - tactical nukes, crossing the line into Poland or the Baltics - and NATO does get genuinely involved, this war is done in four weeks. The stuff we send to Ukraine is old. Russia has no answer to modern western weapon systems. Regardless, strategically, the invasion of Ukraine is a catastrophe for Russia. The impacts will last for generations. Would be surprised if the Russian Federation survives. Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow was almost predatory. |
Anonymous
DP. Actually, it is very meaningful and explains why Putin is throwing so many Russian lives on the fire. Regarding Russian history, it depends largely on the timeframe you're talking about. Historians believe that Swedish Vikings led by Rurik invaded southward into Slav lands from Novogorod (the Viking base in the North). In the mid-ninth century the Eastern Polans settlement of Kyiv was captured by Rus boyars (high nobility but not princes) and passed to Rus prince Oleg (879–912), a relative of Rurik, who moved the capital from Novgorod to Kiev; who subsequently declared Kyiv to be the mother of the cities of the Rus. Kiev was initially ruled under the kagan (Great Prince) and his druzhina (armed henchmen) of the area labeled now as Kievan Rus. Sviatoslav I 943–972, V. Prince Vladimir the Great (980–1015) spread a Byzantine monotheistic religion in 988, which could be considered the foundation of the Russian Orthodox Church. Under the Rurik dynasty, Kiev remained the governing city of the Rus until 1169 when it was sacked and the seat officially moved northwards to Vladimir. The Rurik dynasty of Kyiv was effectively succeeded in the Ukraine region by the principality of Halych-Volynia in 1199, which had its own, second Rurik dynasty. By the 13th century, Kievan Rus fell to the Mongol Golden Horde. The area of modern-day Moscow was actually Mongol-conquered lands under Mongol rule / overlordship throughout the 14th century. The Russian Orthodox Christianity was established and flourished in Moscow around 1325, but paid tribute to the Khan of the Great Horde until the late 15th century. https://mappingeasterneurope.princeton.edu/item/rus-a-brief-overview.html https://academic.oup.com/book/714/chapter-abstract/135383262?redirectedFrom=fulltext https://www.historyfiles.co.uk/KingListsEurope/EasternVladimir.htm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir-Suzdal In summary, Moscow was ruled by the Mongols for a few hundred years and was not the heart of the Russian Empire. Depending on the argument made, either Novogorod or Kiev is techncially the actual birthcity of the Rus empire. I believe this is one reason why Putin is ideologically wedded to the idea of re-unifying Ukraine and Russia. The Russian propaganda dilemnna - how can you have a "greater Russia" without the heartland of the Rus? |
Anonymous
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Straw poll Saturday-
Will Zelensky be a billionaire after the war is over? |
Anonymous
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History is long, cities are captured and change hands. Civilizations rise and fall.
And we risk nuclear war that could end humanity. |
Anonymous
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When I re-read the post, there was one line that wasn't clear.
BOYARS Boiarska Rada Boyar Council (10th century) Kievan Rus Boyar Duma (10th-12th century) Muscovy Boyar Duma (1547–1711) http://boyars.weebly.com/history-of-the-boyar-princes.html Boyar member of the upper stratum of medieval Russian society and state administration. Boyars were generally drawn from about 200 families, descended from former princes, old Moscow boyar families and foreign aristocrats; and they participated in a boyar council that helped the czar direct the internal and foreign affairs of state. Conferred by the ruler upon individuals. It was abolished by Peter the Great. https://www.ulethbridge.ca/lib/digitized_collections/ourheritage/Great_Adventures/Waterways_of_Russia/Glossary.html NOTE: Boyars are often pictured with beards and high hats. KNYAZ vs TZAR/TSAR/CZAR/CSAR Knyaz was the Bulgarian monarch title up until 889'ish, then changed to Tzar (Emperor) around 893'ish. But this was a Bulgarian / Serbian / Slavic title. Tzar wasn't adopted by Russia until the 1547-1721 timeframe. http://boyars.weebly.com/history-of-the-boyar-princes.html KAGAN or KHAGAN or KHAN This is actually a Mongolian title used by Russians when they were subjugated by the Mongol Empire. Kagan the ruler of various oriental peoples; occasionally used as a title of the princes of Rus. https://www.ulethbridge.ca/lib/digitized_collections/ourheritage/Great_Adventures/Waterways_of_Russia/Glossary.html |
Anonymous
If the Russian Government does this, one thing will be absolutely certain. I have a very different take on this point. Let's suppose that Russians first-strike and nuke the US, and they're so successful that the US is wiped off the face of the planet with nuclear weapons, and there is zero damage to Russia. Far-fetched, I know, but this is just a make-believe hypothetical to prove a point. The net result? I believe there will not be a place on Earth that Russians can vacation or travel to and not be scorned or hated (except maybe North Korea? but certainly no where with a beach..). I believe that Russians, as an ethnicity, will end. No one will want to be associated with Russia or being called a Russian and no amount of Russian propaganda will be able to change that. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181617/backlash-against-russians-living-abroad-all-too-familiar-anxious The US is not an ethnicity - it is fundamentally a collection of people from around the globe who immigrated. The US is so interconnected to the world's financial systems, shipping of goods and services, relatives living abroad, etc. that there is no country on the planet that is not interconnected (except North Korea.. but our ally South Korea covers that part and the US has A LOT of ties to South Korea). Whether you love the US or hate it, the point is that it is what it is and no way to avoid it. Plus, once the world sees the US, as a powerful country, wiped off the face of the Earth; they will probably turn to China for protection. And what will China do? Russia will be the only impediment to China's rule of the planet. Xi may not want that. Other chinese officials may not want that. Now. But later? Who knows. There is only one outcome for Russia and all Russians if they pull the nuclear trigger. Feel better now? |
Anonymous
| There is a way out though. Russia pulls out of Ukraine. Russian's who fled the country are permitted to return with amnesty. An internal, peaceful change of government returns. Russia enters peace negotiations to work with Ukraine to heal the damage long-term. Russia turns over a new leaf - a bitter pill to swallow, but one they can be proud of in the long run. |
Anonymous
Yes, I know That’s the point. |
