BREAKING: New poll from center / center-right group has Bowser up by +8

[Anonymous]

Surprisingly close considering the NBC / Marist poll, thought from what I understand this is closer to the actual internal polling within the two actual campaigns.

Bowser 35%/Catania 27%/Schwartz 11%
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/mike-debonis/wp/2014/10/01/new-d-c-mayoral-poll-muriel-bowser-leads-david-catania-by-8-points/

[Anonymous]

Damn you, Schwartz!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Damn you, Schwartz!

Poll question 6- if the race was between just Bowser and Catania, which would you choose?

Bowser 43%, Catania 33%, undecided 24%

Again, this poll seems to have a fatal flaw in that it probably overestimates the white electorate by 10%, and underestimates the black electorate by about the same amount. But if the polling is indeed closer to the Bowser internal polls also, as claimed by Chuck Thies, I'd be willing to hear some arguments that the race is closer than suspected. But can't get over that racial weighting, just seems to far off.

[Anonymous]

still, if schwartz was not in the race i bet catania would have a better shot. she should bow out now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:still, if schwartz was not in the race i bet catania would have a better shot. she should bow out now.

The poll seems to refute that assertion. I think it's more accurate to say that Schwartz has support from long-time residents who have positive memories of her campaigns against Marion Barry, and that that support cuts across party and racial lines, so her voters are probably mostly split between Bowser/Catania.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Damn you, Schwartz!

Poll question 6- if the race was between just Bowser and Catania, which would you choose?

Bowser 43%, Catania 33%, undecided 24%

Again, this poll seems to have a fatal flaw in that it probably overestimates the white electorate by 10%, and underestimates the black electorate by about the same amount. But if the polling is indeed closer to the Bowser internal polls also, as claimed by Chuck Thies, I'd be willing to hear some arguments that the race is closer than suspected. But can't get over that racial weighting, just seems to far off.

+1. "The new poll differs from the NBC4/Washington Post/Marist poll in selecting respondents from a voter list rather than by dialing random numbers. The composition of the two polls’ samples is markedly different in some ways, including by race: In the Post poll, African Americans narrowly outnumbered whites, 48 to 43 percent. In the new survey, 53 percent of likely voters are white, while 42 percent are black and 5 percent Hispanic or Latino."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/mike-debonis/wp/2014/10/01/new-d-c-mayoral-poll-muriel-bowser-leads-david-catania-by-8-points/

I would not break out the champagne just yet. In DC, voters are mostly Democratic and Black so if more White voters turn out than Black voters, Catania has a shot. If the Black turnout is higher, then Bowser wins. I found this article interesting - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/local/dc-mayor-2014/voter-breakdown/

[jsteele]

If you haven't already, read my post in the Politics Forum about the differences between campaign and public polling. The new poll uses methodology closer to a campaign poll (i.e. calling off of a voter list rather than random):

http://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/414012.page

The under-sampling of African Americans may be significant, but otherwise this poll supports what the Catania campaign has been arguing.

[Anonymous]

A vote for David Catania is a vote for someone who has a vision for the future of our city and isn't afraid of ruffling some feathers in making important decisions.

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:
I would not break out the champagne just yet. In DC, voters are mostly Democratic and Black so if more White voters turn out than Black voters, Catania has a shot. If the Black turnout is higher, then Bowser wins. I found this article interesting - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/local/dc-mayor-2014/voter-breakdown/

According to that link, there were almost equal numbers of primary voters in black and white precincts. While there are more black voters, fewer of them voted. Therefore, it is likely that both the Post poll and the latest poll have the demographic wrong.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:still, if schwartz was not in the race i bet catania would have a better shot. she should bow out now.

The poll seems to refute that assertion. I think it's more accurate to say that Schwartz has support from long-time residents who have positive memories of her campaigns against Marion Barry, and that that support cuts across party and racial lines, so her voters are probably mostly split between Bowser/Catania.

Schwartz is also getting some support from uber Gray loyalists, who are still upset at Bowser for beating her in the primary. I know some of them.

[Anonymous]

Whoever wins, I think it's clear we're heading for a record low turnout. Makes that Scotland turnout of 85% look even more amazing.

[Anonymous]

Pretty clear we're headed for a Bowser election with a very limited mandate to keep doing what we're doing - gradual improvement - without committing crimes.

[Anonymous]

Anyone who seriously believes Catania has a chance is out to lunch. A vote for him does send a message though, I suppose.

[Anonymous]

Catania has been endorsed by the head of the Democratic Governors' Association, the current governor of Vermont. This is an affirmation of Catania's ability to work around party labels and get things done for Washington, DC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Pretty clear we're headed for a Bowser election with a very limited mandate to keep doing what we're doing - gradual improvement - without committing crimes.

Bowser has refused basiclly to take a stand on anything. If she squeaks though, how can it be interpreted as a mandate for anything at all?