I think the bubble is popping.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Housing Market Update: Pending Sales Dip, Price Drops Becoming More Common

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-price-drops-over-4pct/

Wow is that headline misleading when you look at the data in the report. I mean, it seems clear that some of the edge is being taken off the frenzy. But when median home sales prices are up 21% (!!) year over year, it doesn't take much. Price drops are up... to 4%, still well below 2019 levels.

I think Redfin has realized that the people who go around trumpeting that real estate is going to crash any second no matter the fundamentals are also the people most susceptible to clickbait.

The point is not that it is "crashing". The point is that the frenzy is over. Now comes the hangover...and what happens from now on, remains to be seen.

Decent homes in Arlington still going fast. Yes, some are sitting because they're either very expensive so not a lot of buyers in that range, or because they're priced too high for their faults. But any house I've seen that's decent still goes under contract after the first weekend.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trouble is places like Potomac, Rockville, Silver Spring, Gaithersburg were where folks who were dual Feds moved as priced out of Chevy Chase, Tenley Town, DC proper as recently as 2019.

Today even Gaithersburg is selling one million dollar homes and Potomac a nice large home in good shape, closer in on good block is like 1.5 million.

Sure there are less. But Potomac one million is a smaller fixer upper and as recently as 2011 one million in Potomac was a decent home.

Capital Heights in 2011 you could buy a wreck if a row house 600k put some elbow grease in and it more than doubled

Look folks still want to live close in. Small DC homes will still sell for a ton.

Large Potomac homes also will sell a lot but more building cost related as material has skyrocketed.

My block in Potomac all very large brick colonials buildings in the 1970s. My neighbor has a total square foot 7,000 square foot house all brick colonial with slate roof built in 1975 in mint condition as they gut renovated in 2018. That cost to rebuild is crazy!!

Then why are the condo prices in SE DC still stagnant? There are still a lot of neighborhoods with good connectivity, location but they are very cheap. why? And do you expect them to come up in the future?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Housing Market Update: Pending Sales Dip, Price Drops Becoming More Common

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-price-drops-over-4pct/

Wow is that headline misleading when you look at the data in the report. I mean, it seems clear that some of the edge is being taken off the frenzy. But when median home sales prices are up 21% (!!) year over year, it doesn't take much. Price drops are up... to 4%, still well below 2019 levels.

I think Redfin has realized that the people who go around trumpeting that real estate is going to crash any second no matter the fundamentals are also the people most susceptible to clickbait.

The point is not that it is "crashing". The point is that the frenzy is over. Now comes the hangover...and what happens from now on, remains to be seen.

This all depends a lot on the location. A tons of neighborhood in DC, NoVA are still hot while a few others are not so.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trouble is places like Potomac, Rockville, Silver Spring, Gaithersburg were where folks who were dual Feds moved as priced out of Chevy Chase, Tenley Town, DC proper as recently as 2019.

Today even Gaithersburg is selling one million dollar homes and Potomac a nice large home in good shape, closer in on good block is like 1.5 million.

Sure there are less. But Potomac one million is a smaller fixer upper and as recently as 2011 one million in Potomac was a decent home.

Capital Heights in 2011 you could buy a wreck if a row house 600k put some elbow grease in and it more than doubled

Look folks still want to live close in. Small DC homes will still sell for a ton.

Large Potomac homes also will sell a lot but more building cost related as material has skyrocketed.

My block in Potomac all very large brick colonials buildings in the 1970s. My neighbor has a total square foot 7,000 square foot house all brick colonial with slate roof built in 1975 in mint condition as they gut renovated in 2018. That cost to rebuild is crazy!!

Then why are the condo prices in SE DC still stagnant? There are still a lot of neighborhoods with good connectivity, location but they are very cheap. why? And do you expect them to come up in the future?

I think a regional thing. In DC older condos in particular folks want new ones or expect very low common charges.

Meanwhile in NYC Pre-War condos and coops or more desired. I honestly think an older DC condo with higher comm in charges due to a recent building wide updating is a great deal as folks in DC don’t like older or higher common charges.

I bought such a unit in 2013 and common charges were $150 a month higher due to NCB loan to redo roof, concrete and driveways and outside painting. All good things. When loan paid off common charges went down. But you have to be very very careful as could just be high as board and managing agents mismanaged buildings. I think older condos are last deals in DC. Also coops as misunderstood in DC

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trouble is places like Potomac, Rockville, Silver Spring, Gaithersburg were where folks who were dual Feds moved as priced out of Chevy Chase, Tenley Town, DC proper as recently as 2019.

Today even Gaithersburg is selling one million dollar homes and Potomac a nice large home in good shape, closer in on good block is like 1.5 million.

Sure there are less. But Potomac one million is a smaller fixer upper and as recently as 2011 one million in Potomac was a decent home.

Capital Heights in 2011 you could buy a wreck if a row house 600k put some elbow grease in and it more than doubled

Look folks still want to live close in. Small DC homes will still sell for a ton.

Large Potomac homes also will sell a lot but more building cost related as material has skyrocketed.

My block in Potomac all very large brick colonials buildings in the 1970s. My neighbor has a total square foot 7,000 square foot house all brick colonial with slate roof built in 1975 in mint condition as they gut renovated in 2018. That cost to rebuild is crazy!!

Then why are the condo prices in SE DC still stagnant? There are still a lot of neighborhoods with good connectivity, location but they are very cheap. why? And do you expect them to come up in the future?

I think a regional thing. In DC older condos in particular folks want new ones or expect very low common charges.

Meanwhile in NYC Pre-War condos and coops or more desired. I honestly think an older DC condo with higher comm in charges due to a recent building wide updating is a great deal as folks in DC don’t like older or higher common charges.

I bought such a unit in 2013 and common charges were $150 a month higher due to NCB loan to redo roof, concrete and driveways and outside painting. All good things. When loan paid off common charges went down. But you have to be very very careful as could just be high as board and managing agents mismanaged buildings. I think older condos are last deals in DC. Also coops as misunderstood in DC

Some of these condos are pretty good and you can get an established community for less than $120-130K for 1 bedroom.

[Anonymous]

I like some of the older DC condos. Much cheaper and solid built if you can get a unit that is remodeled.

[Anonymous]

I have a family member that just got outbid after going $50k over list for a house between Clarksburg and Frederick. It wasn’t a particularly lowball list price based on comps. It may not be frantic, but it is still nutty out there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trouble is places like Potomac, Rockville, Silver Spring, Gaithersburg were where folks who were dual Feds moved as priced out of Chevy Chase, Tenley Town, DC proper as recently as 2019.

Today even Gaithersburg is selling one million dollar homes and Potomac a nice large home in good shape, closer in on good block is like 1.5 million.

Sure there are less. But Potomac one million is a smaller fixer upper and as recently as 2011 one million in Potomac was a decent home.

Capital Heights in 2011 you could buy a wreck if a row house 600k put some elbow grease in and it more than doubled

Look folks still want to live close in. Small DC homes will still sell for a ton.

Large Potomac homes also will sell a lot but more building cost related as material has skyrocketed.

My block in Potomac all very large brick colonials buildings in the 1970s. My neighbor has a total square foot 7,000 square foot house all brick colonial with slate roof built in 1975 in mint condition as they gut renovated in 2018. That cost to rebuild is crazy!!

Then why are the condo prices in SE DC still stagnant? There are still a lot of neighborhoods with good connectivity, location but they are very cheap. why? And do you expect them to come up in the future?

SE DC has much more crime (see the Navy Yard baseball shootings two nights ago) and has higher condo density with taller buildings which means more units available at any point in time and they're always building more giant apartment/condo buildings there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have a family member that just got outbid after going $50k over list for a house between Clarksburg and Frederick. It wasn’t a particularly lowball list price based on comps. It may not be frantic, but it is still nutty out there.

Yikes, that’s bad. My guess - total guess- is that while there is a frenzy now, there are a LOT of buyers sitting this year out because of the nuttyness and hoping/expecting the market to be much friendlier to buyers next spring/summer. I think we’ll again have a supply/demand issue next spring especially since rates will still most likely be in the 3s.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a family member that just got outbid after going $50k over list for a house between Clarksburg and Frederick. It wasn’t a particularly lowball list price based on comps. It may not be frantic, but it is still nutty out there.

Yikes, that’s bad. My guess - total guess- is that while there is a frenzy now, there are a LOT of buyers sitting this year out because of the nuttyness and hoping/expecting the market to be much friendlier to buyers next spring/summer. I think we’ll again have a supply/demand issue next spring especially since rates will still most likely be in the 3s.

I agree with this 100%.

My friends are just done with the stress with it.

But I don’t foresee listings skyrocketing in the spring either. A lot of people are going to try to diy everything to make it sellable but priced low grade A houses will be rare. And buyers are getting more informed.

[Anonymous]

It’s been a little while since the last post. How are folks feeling now?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a family member that just got outbid after going $50k over list for a house between Clarksburg and Frederick. It wasn’t a particularly lowball list price based on comps. It may not be frantic, but it is still nutty out there.

Yikes, that’s bad. My guess - total guess- is that while there is a frenzy now, there are a LOT of buyers sitting this year out because of the nuttyness and hoping/expecting the market to be much friendlier to buyers next spring/summer. I think we’ll again have a supply/demand issue next spring especially since rates will still most likely be in the 3s.

If you think a lot of buyers are sitting it out this year, that means next year is going to be nutty to because "a lot of buyers" that sat it out will be competing next year. The actual problem, if you can call it that, is that Millennials are home buying age right now. There are a lot of them, they're the largest demographic in the country and we didn't build enough homes after the crash.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It’s been a little while since the last post. How are folks feeling now?

I'm seeing a lot of inventory in the neighborhood where we have been looking. Houses in the $550-$600k range that are selling are not going much over asking, maybe $10-15k. A lot are kind of blah on the outside - old small ramblers - but with updated kitchens and bathrooms. There are definitely a couple of small but very cute houses that have gone 10% plus over asking and were not priced low to start with. We just had an offer accepted that we were sure would go to escalation and did not, though there were other ooffers. It's hard to tell how much the price drops/houses not selling is because the properties themselves are being priced too high for what they are or because demand/prices are actually going down.

[Anonymous]

Definitely cooled big time. Homes sitting longer, which is increasing inventory. Many now going with contingcies. Things reverting back to normal. Buyers are just exhausted and are done with overpaying and having to eat all of the risk. Things are ebbing and flowing back to normal.

[Anonymous]

It's going back to normal but the ones that are sitting are just overpriced..