Reach vs. Possibility vs. Safety?

[Anonymous]

Where are the lines drawn on these categories? Is a safety 90% chance and above? Possibility 75% chance and above? We're still a couple of years out from applying but I can't sort out the lines between safety and possibility and possibility and reach. Please help me understand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where are the lines drawn on these categories? Is a safety 90% chance and above? Possibility 75% chance and above? We're still a couple of years out from applying but I can't sort out the lines between safety and possibility and possibility and reach. Please help me understand.

The lines have blurred dramatically since I applied for college back in the 80's.

Today well-qualified students are being rejected from schools they should be shoo-ins for simply because the college suspects it was targeted as a safety.

And outliers are getting into reaches, leaving everyone confused.

And what used to be a reach for some are now reaches for EVERYONE.

I'd recommend reading up on (today's) admissions process, as there are tons of books out there on this topic. And when it's time to start applying, choose a 2 in each category.

[Anonymous]

I guess that's the problem, finding schools in the "possibility/likely" category. Everything seems to be a reach or a safety.

[Anonymous]

Two answers here -- first, what is a safety or match depends on your own risk tolerance. In my book, a safety should be someplace that is close to 100% for your child, but for most DCUM kids a school that takes everyone applying is a school (the old city university system in NY, for example) they wouldn't attend at all, so you need to allow for some theoretical margin of error.

Second, here is what we learned recently. If your school has Naviance, use that to get the grades/SATs of accepted/rejected students. Ask around if recent grads applying there who got in were athletes, minority students, etc. and depending on your own child then bump up or down the odds a bit accordingly. IF your child is a boy, figure your odds are slightly better than average and a girl a bit worse (unless applying as an engineer type). Finally -- and this will be hard until you get closer to senior year -- look at own child's whole package /story. If it fits together for a school and your child can produce good college essays, give a bump up. If your child will throw applications together last minute and submit first or second draft essays, bump down. These and other things can show your interest in a school, and for many (not all) schools that counts a lot. Except for the most selective schools which are a reach for everyone as the pp noted, the schools acceptance rates are a bit better in reality than they appear b/c (1) some kids throw in an app that don't come close to fitting the profile; (2) some kids just don't put as much effort into the apps as others, and that effort shows and stands out; and (3) thin about how strong the teacher recs will be for the child applying to that particular type of school. I know this doesn't help you with figuring out percentage cutoffs, but the point is that your percentage odds of admission vary based on a number of factors and it's probably too early for you to be able to really evaluate closely. You need to necessarily start broad and then narrow once you get closer to seeing test scores and grades for starters. Good luck.

[Anonymous]

Who knows? DDs been accepted to 3 schools we thought she'd get into (with scores at about the 50-75th %ile). The next 5 schools where she's in the middle 50%, we hope she'll get into one or 2 but she's prepared to get into none. I'd say her application is very average for what schools see from kids in this area.

[Anonymous]

Public or Private, and what size student body? Full pay or other hook?

[Anonymous]

Make sure you have at least one school that your kid would be fine with attending where they are essentially guaranteed to get in (test scores and grades way above average). After that it's risk tolerance.

[Anonymous]

If you have a top kid -- I mean like top 10% or higher SATs and GPA but no "hook" like being an underrepresented minority, playing a sport or having a unique talent or strength, then I'd say be careful with applying to Ivies. When competing for college acceptance at the highest levels, almost no one can consider themselves "likely" for admission. If you are going the Ivy (or Ivy equivalent) route, I'd advise applying to a few more schools than typical, and including a true safety like UMD, Michigan, Tulane, Penn State.

[Anonymous]

Remember too that, depending on your financial situation, the concept of safety may need to include "affordable."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If you have a top kid -- I mean like top 10% or higher SATs and GPA but no "hook" like being an underrepresented minority, playing a sport or having a unique talent or strength, then I'd say be careful with applying to Ivies. When competing for college acceptance at the highest levels, almost no one can consider themselves "likely" for admission. If you are going the Ivy (or Ivy equivalent) route, I'd advise applying to a few more schools than typical, and including a true safety like UMD, Michigan, Tulane, Penn State.

There are so many highly qualified, high academic and test score applicants that the underrepresented minority is becoming passe. If anything, they are competing among themselves for the selective slots AND there scores are just as good if not better than the top 10% of non-white students.

I personally know 7 black students (private and public schools) who were early admit to Harvard, Princeton, Yale, and Stanford. Every one of them had superior grades and scores, attended top flight private and public in this area, and ranked in single digits (one school does not rank). There is absolutely no doubt they were admitted for their outstanding credentials. If the Ivy schools salivated and did not look beyond their skin color, that's their problem.

People should stop assuming that underrepresented minorities are solely admitted because of their skin color. Harvard or any of the other top schools will not admit someone who can't carry their academic weight regardless if they are the first purple person on earth. Richard Sherman (football) may be rambunctious and was most likely admitted for sports, he had a 3.7 GPA at Stanford.

Simply having a "hook" as a minority no way guarantees admission.

[Anonymous]

You can't quantify the chances in my book. (DC is a senior.) Will you be working with a college counselor?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If you have a top kid -- I mean like top 10% or higher SATs and GPA but no "hook" like being an underrepresented minority, playing a sport or having a unique talent or strength, then I'd say be careful with applying to Ivies. When competing for college acceptance at the highest levels, almost no one can consider themselves "likely" for admission. If you are going the Ivy (or Ivy equivalent) route, I'd advise applying to a few more schools than typical, and including a true safety like UMD, Michigan, Tulane, Penn State.

These are safeties? (Or do you mean for that top 10% student who has a chance at the Ivies?)

[Anonymous]

Yes, we will work with the school's counselor and our school uses Naviance but I don't have access to it yet, nor to enough truly relevant data. I'm just trying to learn as much as I can about the process and looking ahead and, ever so slowly, putting away the rose-colored glasses.

Thanks for the helpful responses.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Simply having a "hook" as a minority no way guarantees admission.

Not a guarantee, but it does increase one's chances.
My DC's class had several very strong minority students. Their admissions were more impressive than those of their white or Asian peers with equally great credentials. The kids themselves admitted that their skin color gave them the edge. Their friends did not really begrudge their success... everyone worked equally hard for their goals and they realize that's the way the system works.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you have a top kid -- I mean like top 10% or higher SATs and GPA but no "hook" like being an underrepresented minority, playing a sport or having a unique talent or strength, then I'd say be careful with applying to Ivies. When competing for college acceptance at the highest levels, almost no one can consider themselves "likely" for admission. If you are going the Ivy (or Ivy equivalent) route, I'd advise applying to a few more schools than typical, and including a true safety like UMD, Michigan, Tulane, Penn State.

There are so many highly qualified, high academic and test score applicants that the underrepresented minority is becoming passe. If anything, they are competing among themselves for the selective slots AND there scores are just as good if not better than the top 10% of non-white students.

I personally know 7 black students (private and public schools) who were early admit to Harvard, Princeton, Yale, and Stanford. Every one of them had superior grades and scores, attended top flight private and public in this area, and ranked in single digits (one school does not rank). There is absolutely no doubt they were admitted for their outstanding credentials. If the Ivy schools salivated and did not look beyond their skin color, that's their problem.

People should stop assuming that underrepresented minorities are solely admitted because of their skin color. Harvard or any of the other top schools will not admit someone who can't carry their academic weight regardless if they are the first purple person on earth. Richard Sherman (football) may be rambunctious and was most likely admitted for sports, he had a 3.7 GPA at Stanford.

Simply having a "hook" as a minority no way guarantees admission.

Oh please. URM is a huge hook, equivalent to hundreds of SAT points. It does not guarantee admission, but it sure increases one's chances. Just take a stroll through some College Confidential accepted student threads to see the advantage being a URM provides.

As for Sherman's grades, it is well known that everybody does well at the top schools. Grade inflation there is out of control. As they say, the only thing harder than getting into an an an Ivy, is failing out.