I think the bubble is popping.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:market may stabilize with some cooling off in overheated places, but we are looking at the impact of longer term housing shortage and increased wealth in many areas, meaning we are not in same place as 2008. inflation is rising, fed will not immediately raise rates (probably taper bond purchases) but that could eventually put some downward pressure on prices and demand. the spring 21 bubble may "pop" and people who bought in 21 may not profit by selling in 23 (unlike those who bought in 19 and sold in 21) but most economic indicators do not point to a massive crash.

I guess different people look at data differently.

EVERY single economic indicator is in bubble territory and ripe for a crash. It just needs a trigger.

Look at what's happening in South Africa right now. Food inflation is leading (almost) to a civil war and the society breaking down. And we here in the US are seeing massive food inflation as well. And we have guns in private hands. A lot of guns. If people are hungry and cannot "afford" food, guess what's gonna happen?

The macroeconomics are challenging, it’s true. But the microeconomics of inside-the-beltway SFHs are still very bullish.

I have serious doubts about that as well. WFH is here to stay. And the govt (believe it or not) is a LOT more supportive of remote work than even some private companies. I'm a Beltway bandit (own a company that leeches off govt contracting dollars), and since the pandemic came to be and CDC/Fed guidance, over 90% of my workforce that were local to the DC area have moved outwards, if not across state lines. The Fed govt used to have a clause in their contracts, that the work will be performed onsite ONLY, and it applied to defense as well as civilian agencies.

No more. All civilian agencies have amended their contracts and removed that language.

"Inside the beltway" will remain, but only for high profile positions, think lobbyists and politicians. The normal working people don't necessarily will have to be close proximity anymore.

You haven’t changed my mind. You might be able to move away, but the folks bidding on good neighborhoods close-in really can’t. The microeconomics still support prices. I’m pretty sure.

That's a perfectly valid opinion. Everybody is entitled to an opinion, whether it's wrong or right.

I could be completely wrong as well or not. Only time will tell.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:market may stabilize with some cooling off in overheated places, but we are looking at the impact of longer term housing shortage and increased wealth in many areas, meaning we are not in same place as 2008. inflation is rising, fed will not immediately raise rates (probably taper bond purchases) but that could eventually put some downward pressure on prices and demand. the spring 21 bubble may "pop" and people who bought in 21 may not profit by selling in 23 (unlike those who bought in 19 and sold in 21) but most economic indicators do not point to a massive crash.

I guess different people look at data differently.

EVERY single economic indicator is in bubble territory and ripe for a crash. It just needs a trigger.

Look at what's happening in South Africa right now. Food inflation is leading (almost) to a civil war and the society breaking down. And we here in the US are seeing massive food inflation as well. And we have guns in private hands. A lot of guns. If people are hungry and cannot "afford" food, guess what's gonna happen?

The macroeconomics are challenging, it’s true. But the microeconomics of inside-the-beltway SFHs are still very bullish.

I have serious doubts about that as well. WFH is here to stay. And the govt (believe it or not) is a LOT more supportive of remote work than even some private companies. I'm a Beltway bandit (own a company that leeches off govt contracting dollars), and since the pandemic came to be and CDC/Fed guidance, over 90% of my workforce that were local to the DC area have moved outwards, if not across state lines. The Fed govt used to have a clause in their contracts, that the work will be performed onsite ONLY, and it applied to defense as well as civilian agencies.

No more. All civilian agencies have amended their contracts and removed that language.

"Inside the beltway" will remain, but only for high profile positions, think lobbyists and politicians. The normal working people don't necessarily will have to be close proximity anymore.

You haven’t changed my mind. You might be able to move away, but the folks bidding on good neighborhoods close-in really can’t. The microeconomics still support prices. I’m pretty sure.

That's a perfectly valid opinion. Everybody is entitled to an opinion, whether it's wrong or right.

I could be completely wrong as well or not. Only time will tell.

To be clear, I’m talking of wheeler-dealers who need face-to-face time. It’s a thing.

[Anonymous]

Why does it matter if the "bubble" isn't caused by the same factors which caused a "bubble" in 1976, 1988 or 2007? A bubble is a bubble. The variables don't have to be the same.
Inflation, low supply, frenzied behavior -- these are all indicators of a bubble.

I hope we don't end up in a desperate situation like South Africa. South Africa is in an extremely desperate scenario right now. If a real estate crash in urban areas is the only thing the US is worried about, we are doing well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We went to 2 open houses last weekend in NW DC. Both places went pending within a day, so no contingencies. I don’t think the bubble is popping, much as we wish it was.

Can you explain pending vs contingent? On redfin, right? I had thought pending was no contingencies but we definitely had full contingency (HI, radon, termite, financing, appraisal) when we bought our house and now selling there's also same contingency minus radon but both were/are listed on redfin as pending rather than contingent. I was thinking maybe contingent must mean contingent on selling the buyers house?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We went to 2 open houses last weekend in NW DC. Both places went pending within a day, so no contingencies. I don’t think the bubble is popping, much as we wish it was.

Can you explain pending vs contingent? On redfin, right? I had thought pending was no contingencies but we definitely had full contingency (HI, radon, termite, financing, appraisal) when we bought our house and now selling there's also same contingency minus radon but both were/are listed on redfin as pending rather than contingent. I was thinking maybe contingent must mean contingent on selling the buyers house?

I thought pending meant no contingencies?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:market may stabilize with some cooling off in overheated places, but we are looking at the impact of longer term housing shortage and increased wealth in many areas, meaning we are not in same place as 2008. inflation is rising, fed will not immediately raise rates (probably taper bond purchases) but that could eventually put some downward pressure on prices and demand. the spring 21 bubble may "pop" and people who bought in 21 may not profit by selling in 23 (unlike those who bought in 19 and sold in 21) but most economic indicators do not point to a massive crash.

I guess different people look at data differently.

EVERY single economic indicator is in bubble territory and ripe for a crash. It just needs a trigger.

Look at what's happening in South Africa right now. Food inflation is leading (almost) to a civil war and the society breaking down. And we here in the US are seeing massive food inflation as well. And we have guns in private hands. A lot of guns. If people are hungry and cannot "afford" food, guess what's gonna happen?

The macroeconomics are challenging, it’s true. But the microeconomics of inside-the-beltway SFHs are still very bullish.

I have serious doubts about that as well. WFH is here to stay. And the govt (believe it or not) is a LOT more supportive of remote work than even some private companies. I'm a Beltway bandit (own a company that leeches off govt contracting dollars), and since the pandemic came to be and CDC/Fed guidance, over 90% of my workforce that were local to the DC area have moved outwards, if not across state lines. The Fed govt used to have a clause in their contracts, that the work will be performed onsite ONLY, and it applied to defense as well as civilian agencies.

No more. All civilian agencies have amended their contracts and removed that language.

"Inside the beltway" will remain, but only for high profile positions, think lobbyists and politicians. The normal working people don't necessarily will have to be close proximity anymore.

Dual feds have been priced out of lot of close in neighborhoods for the past 5 years. I don’t see how being able to work from home is going to change anything.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We went to 2 open houses last weekend in NW DC. Both places went pending within a day, so no contingencies. I don’t think the bubble is popping, much as we wish it was.

Can you explain pending vs contingent? On redfin, right? I had thought pending was no contingencies but we definitely had full contingency (HI, radon, termite, financing, appraisal) when we bought our house and now selling there's also same contingency minus radon but both were/are listed on redfin as pending rather than contingent. I was thinking maybe contingent must mean contingent on selling the buyers house?

I asked my agent because when we went under contract it was listed as contingent on Redfin but we had no contingencies beyond the usual (home inspection etc). She said it's up to the seller's agent and they randomly use pending or contingent. If you see a house as contingent, assume it's pending.

[Anonymous]

I live close to downtown, and neighborhoods are absolutely packed. They have been since May.

Downtown office buildings are definitely quieter, but it's July in DC and some places are targeting a Labor Day open.

Residential rents are also increasing across the board, at least in Dupont/Shaw/Logan Circle/U Street/Columbia Heights.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:market may stabilize with some cooling off in overheated places, but we are looking at the impact of longer term housing shortage and increased wealth in many areas, meaning we are not in same place as 2008. inflation is rising, fed will not immediately raise rates (probably taper bond purchases) but that could eventually put some downward pressure on prices and demand. the spring 21 bubble may "pop" and people who bought in 21 may not profit by selling in 23 (unlike those who bought in 19 and sold in 21) but most economic indicators do not point to a massive crash.

I guess different people look at data differently.

EVERY single economic indicator is in bubble territory and ripe for a crash. It just needs a trigger.

Look at what's happening in South Africa right now. Food inflation is leading (almost) to a civil war and the society breaking down. And we here in the US are seeing massive food inflation as well. And we have guns in private hands. A lot of guns. If people are hungry and cannot "afford" food, guess what's gonna happen?

The macroeconomics are challenging, it’s true. But the microeconomics of inside-the-beltway SFHs are still very bullish.

I have serious doubts about that as well. WFH is here to stay. And the govt (believe it or not) is a LOT more supportive of remote work than even some private companies. I'm a Beltway bandit (own a company that leeches off govt contracting dollars), and since the pandemic came to be and CDC/Fed guidance, over 90% of my workforce that were local to the DC area have moved outwards, if not across state lines. The Fed govt used to have a clause in their contracts, that the work will be performed onsite ONLY, and it applied to defense as well as civilian agencies.

No more. All civilian agencies have amended their contracts and removed that language.

"Inside the beltway" will remain, but only for high profile positions, think lobbyists and politicians. The normal working people don't necessarily will have to be close proximity anymore.

Downtown DC is waaaay less crowded during business hours, happy hours, and weekends. I don't think this really is due to the pandemic anymore as we have high vax rates around here.

I work in tech. Initially our company was going to bounce back to full time in person. Staff pushed back. Now we're looking at 3 days per week in the office. That's a pretty huge shift from our normal mode of living. With a schedule like that, I see absolutely no reason to blow $1.5M on a house in McLean just to save on commute. We are looking a couple counties west.

Everyone I know with 3 days a week in office (which is almost all of them) is still looking to buy in the DMV. You're willing to commute 6 hours a day? Good luck.

[Anonymous]

6 hours a day on a promise like this woman and her fool husband I might add.

There's nothing in the HR or employment documents that lists WFH as a protected or permanent benefit.

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/983906.page

[Anonymous]

Many offices returning to a 3 day in person office will shift to 5 day when employees see how inefficient it is to work that way. Either 100% telework or 100% office. And, For many jobs, if you want to get promoted, you better be in the office and not at home.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I live close to downtown, and neighborhoods are absolutely packed. They have been since May.

Downtown office buildings are definitely quieter, but it's July in DC and some places are targeting a Labor Day open.

Residential rents are also increasing across the board, at least in Dupont/Shaw/Logan Circle/U Street/Columbia Heights.

The people who think WFH will be a sea change need to start pointing to substantial differences in the CRE, i.e. for offices, market. Otherwise, I'm not buying that WFH is a permanent thing.

[Anonymous]

I work in tech. Initially our company was going to bounce back to full time in person. Staff pushed back. Now we're looking at 3 days per week in the office. That's a pretty huge shift from our normal mode of living. With a schedule like that, I see absolutely no reason to blow $1.5M on a house in McLean just to save on commute. We are looking a couple counties west.

Everyone I know with 3 days a week in office (which is almost all of them) is still looking to buy in the DMV. You're willing to commute 6 hours a day? Good luck.

Lol, this forum. “A couple of counties west” is a lot more commuting but is not 6 hours a day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I live close to downtown, and neighborhoods are absolutely packed. They have been since May.

Downtown office buildings are definitely quieter, but it's July in DC and some places are targeting a Labor Day open.

Residential rents are also increasing across the board, at least in Dupont/Shaw/Logan Circle/U Street/Columbia Heights.

The people who think WFH will be a sea change need to start pointing to substantial differences in the CRE, i.e. for offices, market. Otherwise, I'm not buying that WFH is a permanent thing.

Oh, post pandemic world will be different. Our organization will allow people to choose a hybrid model and many will use this option. Very few will be going back 5 days a week.

[Anonymous]

We're not going back to five days in the office in our company. Many of us are WFH full time and corporate leadership has already confirmed it's permanent if we want to. The plan is for people to make an effort to come into the office every now and then. We're already drastically reducing office footprint and not renewing leases.

We're a consulting firm and quite a few were already WFH most of the time pre pandemic.