Anonymous wrote:
But I don't disagree with your points generally. As Professor Espenshade and others have opined, this doesn't mean selective colleges will abandon efforts to promote diversity. They will probably move towards a system of considering Socio-Economic Status/class, but as he also notes (in the first linked article), his study predicts this will lower the number of AA and Latino students at the most highly selective colleges significantly. The "silver lining" he sees is that it may force even more focus on equalizing educational opportunities at the younger grades.
I have also heard African-American and Latino friends and colleagues say they won't miss assuming they are "products of Affirmative Action" and see that as a good outcome if affirmative action in college admission were to end.
Your point on "small" being in the eye of the beholder when it comes to legacy admissions is a good one, and to me, increases the chances that there will be enough public outcry about legacies that the Ivies and other highly selective schools may have to give up legacy admissions. (Of course, could there be a loophole for students whose parents are big donors, on the grounds that is not "just" legacy status? Maybe!

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I've also wondered if the Fisher v. Texas effect (assuming they strike down affirmative action) may trickle down to private schools. Clearly, legally private schools will not be covered (no acceptance of federal funds as is the case with private colleges). But if the Supreme Court sets a new societal norm that, as Chief Justice Roberts likes to say, you can't fight discrimination with more discrimination (which is how he sees preferences based on race), will there be more pressure for independent schools to go to a Socio-economic/class based form of diversity in admissions? That's easier for the wealthier schools with the bigger endowments, of course, than a system which gives some diversity consideration for race/ethnicity absent any consideration of parental wealth/occupation.
There will be a LOT of debate about affirmative action in education in 2013 and immediately beyond, I predict -- most at the college level but some perhaps trickling down to the private schools.