I’m a Dem here in Texas. Our wind turbines froze.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Man the right wing fossil fuel sphere got out there with their message fast.
Democrats and progressives are always playing catch up.
Always trying to unring a bell.

It’s almost like that was the state government’s priority instead of telling citizens how to stay safe.

This happened ten years ago, FERC wrote a report with a ton of recommendations, mostly “winterize your power distribution capability, FFS,” and Texas did nothing. You might recall this because Dallas in particular was a total icy mess the whole week before hosting the Super Bowl for the first time. Here’s the report; of course Texas was not required to follow the recommendations because its power grid is not regulated by the federal government. https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/08-16-11-report.pdf

My husband worked on that report. Last night he kept telling me that TX knew.

Of course they knew. They actively chose this scenario. They prefferred cheaper short term electricity over long term reliability amd resiliency.

So basically the GOP builds infrastructure like China builds buildings. Does anyone remember that school that collapsed in China that was practically built with paper clips in place of rebar and sawdust in the cement? This is that. An avoidable tragedy in support of the party’s ideals.

Your 1% event has happened 3 times in the last 30 years. How many billions is this costing in aid and productivity? At some point, it is worth investing in the infrastructure so as to not have to pay these additional emergency costs.
Prelim data suggests this was a 4 standard deviation event. Not many systems in the world built to withstand those types of events.

It happened ten years ago and the lack of winterization was specifically pointed to as the cause by both federal and state investigators. This was forseen and the problems known ahead of time.

And power outages happen all over blue states with heat waves that would be called overnight lows in the Texas summer. Going into the 90s in July of 2019 had DMV officials worried about blackouts while most Texans would be grateful for 90s temps in July and their systems would perform just fine at that demand/operating environment. California had rolling blackouts last year over what Texas could handle as a relatively average summer. Some of this is policy choices and some of it is that nobody builds systems to withstand these kind of events. Whether you’re in TX or CA.

That's just not entirely true. DMV summers are notoriously brutal, even by Texas standards. 90+ degree brutally humid summer days with a heat index over 100 are the norm not the exception around here. We pay extra for an electrical system that has guaranteed backup supply and whose components are weatherized. Texas chose not to and is paying the proverbial piper.

No. DMV summers are not brutal but Texas standards. Not even close. You’re losing track of scale here. Average July temp/heat index in DC is 89/100.8. Average in Dallas 95.2/113.5. And that’s just Dallas. Heat index in Houston, San Antonio and Austin are all worse in July. And the DMV power grid is not built to withstand sustained Texas temps from both a demand and operating perspective.

Ive been in both and I prefer the dry heat. The point is that our systems are built to handle everything from 100+ to -0 because you cant assume that wont happen. We pay to have backup supply in case of an emergency. We pay for weatherization. We dont do this because we want to. We do this because if something happens we dont want a grid failure. Texas on the other hand chooses not to prepare.

No. Systems aren’t built “for anything” that can happen. They are built for ranges that cover 99% of what could happen. When the 1% hits, systems fail. That’s true everywhere in the country. And right now Texas is having the 1% event.

I don’t have time to look for DMV’s ISO right now, but most other ISOs manage to around a one day in 10 year standard (industry standard). So when you get hit with a one day in 50 year event (especially on a multi day period) like Texas is experiencing right now you can expect system failure. You should not expect that your power system will operate under a comparable 4 standard deviation event that hits the DMV.

No one said.anything that can happen. 0-100 degree weather is not a 1% event in either the DMV or DFW. Had the temps been -20 or 120 you'd have a point. But they weren't. This event was manageable, forseeable, and predicted. The weather front was not even sudden. They knew it was coming and didn't prepare.

Texas is experiencing a 1% event FOR TEXAS.

Figure out what a 1% event is FOR DMV. That event is the appropriate comparison for what is happening in Texas right now. Odds are that DMV has similar grid experience in the case of a 1% event for DMV as Texas is having for a 1% event FOR TEXAS.

No Texas is not. It is a 1 in 10 year event for Texas. Look it up. There are references that planners, engineers and designers use.

Yes, Texas the state is in a once in 50 year event. Look it up. Parts of Texas have experienced this. Even for DFW this is like a once in 10 year event, but for the entire state to be this frozen is a once in 50 year event. Had this vortex only hit DFW, the grid probably holds fine. If only the Nat gas producers in the panhandle had been impacted, the grid holds fine. Those are things that have happened in memory. But for demand to surge across the entire state like this a once in 50 year event. Had this weather only hit DFW and Houston, the grid probably holds fine. But for San Antonio and areas south of I-10 to also get impacted at the SAME TIME as Houston and DFW is a historical storm.

NYT is saying this Texas storm goes beyond historical conditions.

NYPost says it is without precedent.

San Antonio papers say San Antonio hasn’t seen anything like this in 30+ years.

Local meteorologists are saying this is the worst storm going back to 1950.

The combined temps in DFW, Austin, Houston and San Antonio are record shattering. I get looking at DFW and saying something like this has happened before. Same for Houston, San Antonio or even Galveston. But nothing like this across the entire state at the same time has been seen in 50+ years.

I dont think your points are in conflict from everyone elses.

This has been so catostrophic because it's a combination of separate failures across the state. Many of those failures were caused by a combination of bad decisions. Had some of these failures not happened or been prepared for this likely would not have been as bad as it is.

So, while Galveston area generators might deserve a pass DFW ones don't. There is an excuse for some parts of Texas to not have winterized but not for others. On the broader scale there is still no excuse for the lack of always on backup capacity.

That’s the point! Nobody has a system with 100% backup. What you have is reserve margin which acts as what you’re calling backup. The storm knocked out the reserve margin. There isn’t a system in the US is built to withstand a 4 standard deviation event. Everybody wants to act like you can just plan to this event, but it doesn’t work that way anywhere in the country.

[Anonymous]

^^^^ to your point. El Paso TX planned for this event and only 12 households lost power. So, you are just making excuses. What do you gain by denying the culpability of the greedy power companies in TX?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:^^^^ to your point. El Paso TX planned for this event and only 12 households lost power. So, you are just making excuses. What do you gain by denying the culpability of the greedy power companies in TX?

This isn’t a 1% event for El Paso.

Imagine that DMV gets blasted with 40 straight days over 100 with high humidity. The grid will fail in that fact pattern. Simultaneously, Jacksonville, FL gets blasted with the same weather and performs fine. Nobody is going to argue that Jacksonville handling ordinary course weather for Jacksonville says anything about DMV’s ability to handle a historic event.

[Anonymous]

A few people died in Texas. Climate change will kill hundreds of millions.

[Anonymous]

Texas doesn't have any reserve backup because they completely privatized the market. They switched models from capacity to energy only.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^^^ to your point. El Paso TX planned for this event and only 12 households lost power. So, you are just making excuses. What do you gain by denying the culpability of the greedy power companies in TX?

This isn’t a 1% event for El Paso.

Imagine that DMV gets blasted with 40 straight days over 100 with high humidity. The grid will fail in that fact pattern. Simultaneously, Jacksonville, FL gets blasted with the same weather and performs fine. Nobody is going to argue that Jacksonville handling ordinary course weather for Jacksonville says anything about DMV’s ability to handle a historic event.

We have had that. Please, every other regulated jurisdiction does disaster and contingency planning and levies taxes and fees to pay for it. Texas doesn't. It is what it is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Texas doesn't have any reserve backup because they completely privatized the market. They switched models from capacity to energy only.

Whoops.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^^^^ to your point. El Paso TX planned for this event and only 12 households lost power. So, you are just making excuses. What do you gain by denying the culpability of the greedy power companies in TX?

This isn’t a 1% event for El Paso.

Imagine that DMV gets blasted with 40 straight days over 100 with high humidity. The grid will fail in that fact pattern. Simultaneously, Jacksonville, FL gets blasted with the same weather and performs fine. Nobody is going to argue that Jacksonville handling ordinary course weather for Jacksonville says anything about DMV’s ability to handle a historic event.

It isn't a 1% event for Texas, but even if it were, the disaster plan should account for a 1% event.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is poster child for the dystopian future funded by the Koch brothers and implemented by the GOP over the last 35 years.

Winning!

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Man the right wing fossil fuel sphere got out there with their message fast.
Democrats and progressives are always playing catch up.
Always trying to unring a bell.

It’s almost like that was the state government’s priority instead of telling citizens how to stay safe.

This happened ten years ago, FERC wrote a report with a ton of recommendations, mostly “winterize your power distribution capability, FFS,” and Texas did nothing. You might recall this because Dallas in particular was a total icy mess the whole week before hosting the Super Bowl for the first time. Here’s the report; of course Texas was not required to follow the recommendations because its power grid is not regulated by the federal government. https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/08-16-11-report.pdf

My husband worked on that report. Last night he kept telling me that TX knew.

Of course they knew. They actively chose this scenario. They prefferred cheaper short term electricity over long term reliability amd resiliency.

So basically the GOP builds infrastructure like China builds buildings. Does anyone remember that school that collapsed in China that was practically built with paper clips in place of rebar and sawdust in the cement? This is that. An avoidable tragedy in support of the party’s ideals.

Your 1% event has happened 3 times in the last 30 years. How many billions is this costing in aid and productivity? At some point, it is worth investing in the infrastructure so as to not have to pay these additional emergency costs.
Prelim data suggests this was a 4 standard deviation event. Not many systems in the world built to withstand those types of events.

It happened ten years ago and the lack of winterization was specifically pointed to as the cause by both federal and state investigators. This was forseen and the problems known ahead of time.

And power outages happen all over blue states with heat waves that would be called overnight lows in the Texas summer. Going into the 90s in July of 2019 had DMV officials worried about blackouts while most Texans would be grateful for 90s temps in July and their systems would perform just fine at that demand/operating environment. California had rolling blackouts last year over what Texas could handle as a relatively average summer. Some of this is policy choices and some of it is that nobody builds systems to withstand these kind of events. Whether you’re in TX or CA.

That's just not entirely true. DMV summers are notoriously brutal, even by Texas standards. 90+ degree brutally humid summer days with a heat index over 100 are the norm not the exception around here. We pay extra for an electrical system that has guaranteed backup supply and whose components are weatherized. Texas chose not to and is paying the proverbial piper.

No. DMV summers are not brutal but Texas standards. Not even close. You’re losing track of scale here. Average July temp/heat index in DC is 89/100.8. Average in Dallas 95.2/113.5. And that’s just Dallas. Heat index in Houston, San Antonio and Austin are all worse in July. And the DMV power grid is not built to withstand sustained Texas temps from both a demand and operating perspective.

Ive been in both and I prefer the dry heat. The point is that our systems are built to handle everything from 100+ to -0 because you cant assume that wont happen. We pay to have backup supply in case of an emergency. We pay for weatherization. We dont do this because we want to. We do this because if something happens we dont want a grid failure. Texas on the other hand chooses not to prepare.

No. Systems aren’t built “for anything” that can happen. They are built for ranges that cover 99% of what could happen. When the 1% hits, systems fail. That’s true everywhere in the country. And right now Texas is having the 1% event.

I don’t have time to look for DMV’s ISO right now, but most other ISOs manage to around a one day in 10 year standard (industry standard). So when you get hit with a one day in 50 year event (especially on a multi day period) like Texas is experiencing right now you can expect system failure. You should not expect that your power system will operate under a comparable 4 standard deviation event that hits the DMV.

No one said.anything that can happen. 0-100 degree weather is not a 1% event in either the DMV or DFW. Had the temps been -20 or 120 you'd have a point. But they weren't. This event was manageable, forseeable, and predicted. The weather front was not even sudden. They knew it was coming and didn't prepare.

Texas is experiencing a 1% event FOR TEXAS.

Figure out what a 1% event is FOR DMV. That event is the appropriate comparison for what is happening in Texas right now. Odds are that DMV has similar grid experience in the case of a 1% event for DMV as Texas is having for a 1% event FOR TEXAS.

No Texas is not. It is a 1 in 10 year event for Texas. Look it up. There are references that planners, engineers and designers use.

Yes, Texas the state is in a once in 50 year event. Look it up. Parts of Texas have experienced this. Even for DFW this is like a once in 10 year event, but for the entire state to be this frozen is a once in 50 year event. Had this vortex only hit DFW, the grid probably holds fine. If only the Nat gas producers in the panhandle had been impacted, the grid holds fine. Those are things that have happened in memory. But for demand to surge across the entire state like this a once in 50 year event. Had this weather only hit DFW and Houston, the grid probably holds fine. But for San Antonio and areas south of I-10 to also get impacted at the SAME TIME as Houston and DFW is a historical storm.

NYT is saying this Texas storm goes beyond historical conditions.

NYPost says it is without precedent.

San Antonio papers say San Antonio hasn’t seen anything like this in 30+ years.

Local meteorologists are saying this is the worst storm going back to 1950.

The combined temps in DFW, Austin, Houston and San Antonio are record shattering. I get looking at DFW and saying something like this has happened before. Same for Houston, San Antonio or even Galveston. But nothing like this across the entire state at the same time has been seen in 50+ years.

I dont think your points are in conflict from everyone elses.

This has been so catostrophic because it's a combination of separate failures across the state. Many of those failures were caused by a combination of bad decisions. Had some of these failures not happened or been prepared for this likely would not have been as bad as it is.

So, while Galveston area generators might deserve a pass DFW ones don't. There is an excuse for some parts of Texas to not have winterized but not for others. On the broader scale there is still no excuse for the lack of always on backup capacity.

That’s the point! Nobody has a system with 100% backup. What you have is reserve margin which acts as what you’re calling backup. The storm knocked out the reserve margin. There isn’t a system in the US is built to withstand a 4 standard deviation event. Everybody wants to act like you can just plan to this event, but it doesn’t work that way anywhere in the country.

No. What people are saying is that if the generators, in areas like Dallas, had undertaken standard winterization measures and Texas paid for emergency capacity, like the rest of us do, then they would not have been minutes away from a total grid collapse on Sunday.

What this shows is the inherent problems and limitations of an energy only market. That energy only market is the cause of the problem. It does not handle emeegency situations very well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Well it did not happen so ...we are good! Let’s get back to owning the libs and planning secession.

Yep.

I’m ok if they go. Cut all of these loser states loose.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yep. I've been watching people live video their homes from Texas.

One person's fishtank froze inside the house.

Another person was trying to keep their pipes from freezing and turned the water on overnight, not only did the pipes freeze but the water blocked and sprayed all over her floors and countertops - FREEZING a sheet of water on the floors, towels, and counters.

Another's entire apartment building flooded because the pipes burst to the fire extinguishers going to every unit.

It was below freezing last night too. People are chopping trees down for firewood. I've seen lines of 100s of people in front of gas stations to buy food because all the grocery stores are closed as well.

Don't worry, "innovation" and "competition" from the private sector will solve everything. MAGA!

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Man the right wing fossil fuel sphere got out there with their message fast.
Democrats and progressives are always playing catch up.
Always trying to unring a bell.

It’s almost like that was the state government’s priority instead of telling citizens how to stay safe.

This happened ten years ago, FERC wrote a report with a ton of recommendations, mostly “winterize your power distribution capability, FFS,” and Texas did nothing. You might recall this because Dallas in particular was a total icy mess the whole week before hosting the Super Bowl for the first time. Here’s the report; of course Texas was not required to follow the recommendations because its power grid is not regulated by the federal government. https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/08-16-11-report.pdf

My husband worked on that report. Last night he kept telling me that TX knew.

Of course they knew. They actively chose this scenario. They prefferred cheaper short term electricity over long term reliability amd resiliency.

So basically the GOP builds infrastructure like China builds buildings. Does anyone remember that school that collapsed in China that was practically built with paper clips in place of rebar and sawdust in the cement? This is that. An avoidable tragedy in support of the party’s ideals.

Your 1% event has happened 3 times in the last 30 years. How many billions is this costing in aid and productivity? At some point, it is worth investing in the infrastructure so as to not have to pay these additional emergency costs.
Prelim data suggests this was a 4 standard deviation event. Not many systems in the world built to withstand those types of events.

It happened ten years ago and the lack of winterization was specifically pointed to as the cause by both federal and state investigators. This was forseen and the problems known ahead of time.

And power outages happen all over blue states with heat waves that would be called overnight lows in the Texas summer. Going into the 90s in July of 2019 had DMV officials worried about blackouts while most Texans would be grateful for 90s temps in July and their systems would perform just fine at that demand/operating environment. California had rolling blackouts last year over what Texas could handle as a relatively average summer. Some of this is policy choices and some of it is that nobody builds systems to withstand these kind of events. Whether you’re in TX or CA.

That's just not entirely true. DMV summers are notoriously brutal, even by Texas standards. 90+ degree brutally humid summer days with a heat index over 100 are the norm not the exception around here. We pay extra for an electrical system that has guaranteed backup supply and whose components are weatherized. Texas chose not to and is paying the proverbial piper.

No. DMV summers are not brutal but Texas standards. Not even close. You’re losing track of scale here. Average July temp/heat index in DC is 89/100.8. Average in Dallas 95.2/113.5. And that’s just Dallas. Heat index in Houston, San Antonio and Austin are all worse in July. And the DMV power grid is not built to withstand sustained Texas temps from both a demand and operating perspective.

Ive been in both and I prefer the dry heat. The point is that our systems are built to handle everything from 100+ to -0 because you cant assume that wont happen. We pay to have backup supply in case of an emergency. We pay for weatherization. We dont do this because we want to. We do this because if something happens we dont want a grid failure. Texas on the other hand chooses not to prepare.

No. Systems aren’t built “for anything” that can happen. They are built for ranges that cover 99% of what could happen. When the 1% hits, systems fail. That’s true everywhere in the country. And right now Texas is having the 1% event.

I don’t have time to look for DMV’s ISO right now, but most other ISOs manage to around a one day in 10 year standard (industry standard). So when you get hit with a one day in 50 year event (especially on a multi day period) like Texas is experiencing right now you can expect system failure. You should not expect that your power system will operate under a comparable 4 standard deviation event that hits the DMV.

No one said.anything that can happen. 0-100 degree weather is not a 1% event in either the DMV or DFW. Had the temps been -20 or 120 you'd have a point. But they weren't. This event was manageable, forseeable, and predicted. The weather front was not even sudden. They knew it was coming and didn't prepare.

Texas is experiencing a 1% event FOR TEXAS.

Figure out what a 1% event is FOR DMV. That event is the appropriate comparison for what is happening in Texas right now. Odds are that DMV has similar grid experience in the case of a 1% event for DMV as Texas is having for a 1% event FOR TEXAS.

No Texas is not. It is a 1 in 10 year event for Texas. Look it up. There are references that planners, engineers and designers use.

Yes, Texas the state is in a once in 50 year event. Look it up. Parts of Texas have experienced this. Even for DFW this is like a once in 10 year event, but for the entire state to be this frozen is a once in 50 year event. Had this vortex only hit DFW, the grid probably holds fine. If only the Nat gas producers in the panhandle had been impacted, the grid holds fine. Those are things that have happened in memory. But for demand to surge across the entire state like this a once in 50 year event. Had this weather only hit DFW and Houston, the grid probably holds fine. But for San Antonio and areas south of I-10 to also get impacted at the SAME TIME as Houston and DFW is a historical storm.

NYT is saying this Texas storm goes beyond historical conditions.

NYPost says it is without precedent.

San Antonio papers say San Antonio hasn’t seen anything like this in 30+ years.

Local meteorologists are saying this is the worst storm going back to 1950.

The combined temps in DFW, Austin, Houston and San Antonio are record shattering. I get looking at DFW and saying something like this has happened before. Same for Houston, San Antonio or even Galveston. But nothing like this across the entire state at the same time has been seen in 50+ years.

I dont think your points are in conflict from everyone elses.

This has been so catostrophic because it's a combination of separate failures across the state. Many of those failures were caused by a combination of bad decisions. Had some of these failures not happened or been prepared for this likely would not have been as bad as it is.

So, while Galveston area generators might deserve a pass DFW ones don't. There is an excuse for some parts of Texas to not have winterized but not for others. On the broader scale there is still no excuse for the lack of always on backup capacity.

That’s the point! Nobody has a system with 100% backup. What you have is reserve margin which acts as what you’re calling backup. The storm knocked out the reserve margin. There isn’t a system in the US is built to withstand a 4 standard deviation event. Everybody wants to act like you can just plan to this event, but it doesn’t work that way anywhere in the country.

You know this is rare but not out of the norm for Texas in terms of temperatures. There was a similar event in 2011. The feds and state of Texas did an after action review. There were recommendations made to avoid this. So yes if fact you can plan for something like this.

[Anonymous]

planning for disaster = socialism/communism/big government

I'd rather my tax dollars go to my leaders enjoying a Mexican escape. It's a Murican right.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

That’s the point! Nobody has a system with 100% backup. What you have is reserve margin which acts as what you’re calling backup. The storm knocked out the reserve margin. There isn’t a system in the US is built to withstand a 4 standard deviation event. Everybody wants to act like you can just plan to this event, but it doesn’t work that way anywhere in the country.

No. What people are saying is that if the generators, in areas like Dallas, had undertaken standard winterization measures and Texas paid for emergency capacity, like the rest of us do, then they would not have been minutes away from a total grid collapse on Sunday.

What this shows is the inherent problems and limitations of an energy only market. That energy only market is the cause of the problem. It does not handle emeegency situations very well.
+1

There were several states facing the exact same temperatures, and they all fared better. So no matter how many standard deviations the pp wants to imply, it's factually wrong to say that nobody else was prepared. I mean, Louisiana did better. Let that sink in.