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Anonymous wrote:I am delighted to see all the statistics backing up the point that I perceive as so obvious: The more IB parents families their kids to Hardy, the more scores at Hardy will start reflecting IB families.
What is hard to understand about this? Nothing -- except there have been other psych/perception forces at work over the last few years that have clouded even the most logical/statistical minds.
It seems like the parents who say they are waiting for the scores to go up before they send their kids to Hardy are really saying - they're more influenced by gossip and innuendo than they are by statistics and common sense.
Perhaps they recognize that the emperor has no clothes. The percentage of white kids scoring "advanced" is much higher at Deal than Hardy.
http://profiles.dcps.dc.gov/Compare.aspx?tab=1&school=405,246
Thank you! I had asked OP for this analysis, with no response so far.
Those results debunk this whole thread. The proportion of white kids who score advanced at deal is essentially double than hardy, both in reading and math. Over 50% vs 27%. Over 70% vs 42%. That's certainly not peanuts. And parents notice.
And what do parents determine? That Hardy will not be good enough for their kids until the scores go up, but the scores won't go up until kids like theirs go to Hardy, therefore they will keep waiting, complaining about the scores, sending their kids to private for middle school, if they can't do Deal, then to Wilson for high school where kids like theirs are mingling with Hardy kids and kids from all over DC, but somehow it's OK now.
I predict OP will be back -- but let's give him a break for tonight.
Overlooking the "advanced" numbers differentials means OP is not going to get a performance bonus on this project! But will be fun to see argument why those stats don't really matter...
here you go - he later (it must have been earlier) said that he used proficient plus advanced in his original post because that is what DCPS uses and there was no access to data that provided numbers or % of proficient vs advanced. NOT going to wade through the entire thread to find where he asserted this. To his credit, he thanked people for giving him links to get the breakdowns on everything.......but never really changed his analysis to incorporate it... and the difference is critical, because as people tried to explain, proficient is such a low bar.
but the other point is - he is Chechen (this came out when the "ladies" wanted to know if he was married) And in DC being a foreigner can be a true weakness even if you are an economist.
the one thing he now seems to accept as truth is another premise he originally rejected - that when the recession hit, Deal and Wilson began their renaissance or it increased exponentially, and now people who buy there do so specifically to go all the way through the public school system
the same just cannot be said for parents at Mann and Key who, as someone noted, were fairly recession proof....
Game theory does not really work in this case and the people who are trying to apply it do not have a full understanding of the dynamics at work - the prisoner's dilemma does work, but the rest? I did all this at the U of Chicago and at the time it made sense, and in many places it still makes sense, but here in DC it almost NEVER makes sense. And for the wealthiest parents in Ward 3 (Mann) and coming in close (Key) it will not make sense.
Economic theories for the most part, if you are talking about Hardy, are not going to work...because for these parents it is about economics. The possibility of Hardy even becoming remotely acceptable, however, is definitely is linked with Wilson becoming acceptable - because if you are not going to go on to Wilson, what is the point of going to Hardy? The neighborhood school theory certainly does not work at the moment.
A lot of the time, almost nothing DCPS does at least, makes economic sense - spending millions to renovate empty high schools while cutting budgets at an overcrowded Wilson and the feeder schools that the boundary revisions did nothing significant to cure...
I think he has spurred a very interesting discussion, and he has had his high points and his low points.
The first low point was the conflation of proficient and advanced, the assertion that there was no data to separate it, and then the refusal to redo his original analysis, even after people explained that proficient means nothing to them.
The analysis of SH was great.
And he nailed the poster from Mann who said the reason their "advanced" scores were so low was because everyone leaves so early for private school by showing that those who are left in 5th grade percentage wise are actually more advanced - which makes sense to me because the dumber the kid, the earlier you go private....... but perhaps in the case of last year, those kids went to Hardy (not all of them could fit at Field). Because now we are taking the PARCC instead, unfortunately, we will never know......
While I accept that he made the Basis poster so furious she ended up incoherent, Basis did score second only to Deal on the 2014 DC CAS when they were still a Title I school according to OSSE (over 40% FARMS), and 44% of the entire MS scored advanced in math. Now their demographics have shifted, but conflating the number of white test takers on the 2014 DC CAS with the present school demographics of 27% FARMS by referring to them both as "from 2014" would have made me see red as well. And for two years that was an important data point in DC - that school came in, took everyone by lottery, and somehow educated a population that most people say are hopeless by middle school.
He also asked for evidence that Kipp is marketed to poor minority (primarily AA kids) because he had never "heard" anyone assert that. To me that speaks volumes about his ignorance in the particular pond he has dipped his foot in.
As an economist, even as a game theorist, you have to know your market. As he admitted, he did this out of idle curiosity because a friend was playing the lottery and he came across a Hardy thread. And as much as people here tried to educate him, on economics (some of which went over my head), on the proficient vs advanced issue, and the decision making dynamics which, when they involve your children, we all have to admit, can be fundamentally irrational and defy all economic theories - just look at how much people are paying for private school here, even people who cannot rationally afford it, using up retirement savings, sheer insanity. But these are our kids. And as he admitted, not his. And he says his wife says "he lacks empathy." I agree. And he is a foreigner.
I don't think he really gets it, and I don't think he really gets DC.
My husband came here from NYC and it took him about 5 years to wrap his second generation Latino head around our fucked up racial history, legacy, burden - what have you - here - and how in this city it is still all about black and white, even though we are so "international" whereas NYC really is polyglot chaos..............
And I don't think he gets Mann, Key, and Hardy. And you kind of have to get all of them. But there is definitely something going on there, and as an IB Hardy parent who knew Rhee was a disaster but missed the whole Pope thing because we were in diapers........ I am excited. And I have the feeling that Patricia Pride does get all of them, as well as the entire population of her school, and the DC baggage, whatever you want to call it. So I have a lot of hope.
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