Bubble 2.0?

[Anonymous]

My neighbor, who bought at the top of the last bubble, seems to be getting ready to sell. I thought they paid a ridiculous amount back then, and sort of pitied them when their property value took a dip, but I see that their "zestimate" today is nearly $200k more than what they bought it for.

I keep hearing about people who want to buy in DC, but can't find anything. They sell their smaller houses or condos quickly, but then end up renting.

So, what do you think will happen a few years down the road? Will people trying to buy now be underwater & regretting their purchases, or will they be sitting pretty on an even pricier property?

[Anonymous]

sorry i couldn't resist i'll try to stop after this one

[Anonymous]

So, what do you think will happen a few years down the road? Will people trying to buy now be underwater & regretting their purchases, or will they be sitting pretty on an even pricier property?

Yup, probably will regret it somewhat. But I still need to buy something now, so if that's the price for the house, that's the price. In 10 years, all the dips and runups even out anyway.

[Anonymous]

with any investment prices go up and then go down and then up. The general trend for housing in the macro is up. We still have quite a ways to climb to over 20% peak which would be the point everyone could afford to sell or refi.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:with any investment prices go up and then go down and then up. The general trend for housing in the macro is up. We still have quite a ways to climb to over 20% peak which would be the point everyone could afford to sell or refi.

Yeah, but the problem is, lending standards are tighter, and wages/salaries are not increasing. High level jobs are getting cut, and are being replaced by lower paying jobs.

How can a typical family afford a 700K, 800K, or 1million mortgage with stagnant job growth? I think the only way to afford these homes in the future is for people to save up a 40% or 50% downpayment. Then the mortgage payments will be sustainable, assuming interest rates stay where they are and don't go much about 7%

But of course that means that also means there will be fewer buyers total = downward pressure on home prices.

I think we'll enter this sort of slow growth or plateau in home prices within a few years. But right now, there's so much pent up demand that people are going crazy with bidding over ask, with escalation clauses, and waiving contingencies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:with any investment prices go up and then go down and then up. The general trend for housing in the macro is up. We still have quite a ways to climb to over 20% peak which would be the point everyone could afford to sell or refi.

Yeah, but the problem is, lending standards are tighter, and wages/salaries are not increasing. High level jobs are getting cut, and are being replaced by lower paying jobs.

How can a typical family afford a 700K, 800K, or 1million mortgage with stagnant job growth? I think the only way to afford these homes in the future is for people to save up a 40% or 50% downpayment. Then the mortgage payments will be sustainable, assuming interest rates stay where they are and don't go much about 7%

But of course that means that also means there will be fewer buyers total = downward pressure on home prices.

I think we'll enter this sort of slow growth or plateau in home prices within a few years. But right now, there's so much pent up demand that people are going crazy with bidding over ask, with escalation clauses, and waiving contingencies.

Maybe I am an outlier but everyone I know in the DC area (contractors, private companies, public companies) has had steady income increases in the last 3 years that has exceeded inflation. The only people who have felt the pain are the actual fed workers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Maybe I am an outlier but everyone I know in the DC area (contractors, private companies, public companies) has had steady income increases in the last 3 years that has exceeded inflation. The only people who have felt the pain are the actual fed workers.

I would say, yes - you are an outlier.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Maybe I am an outlier but everyone I know in the DC area (contractors, private companies, public companies) has had steady income increases in the last 3 years that has exceeded inflation. The only people who have felt the pain are the actual fed workers.

I would say, yes - you are an outlier.

I agree- contracting companies are starting to feel the pinch. The one I work for isn't giving promotions or cost of living increases this year. I think things will be worse next year, because these cuts aren't going away (unless you're the FAA of course).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:with any investment prices go up and then go down and then up. The general trend for housing in the macro is up. We still have quite a ways to climb to over 20% peak which would be the point everyone could afford to sell or refi.

Yeah, but the problem is, lending standards are tighter, and wages/salaries are not increasing. High level jobs are getting cut, and are being replaced by lower paying jobs.

How can a typical family afford a 700K, 800K, or 1million mortgage with stagnant job growth? I think the only way to afford these homes in the future is for people to save up a 40% or 50% downpayment. Then the mortgage payments will be sustainable, assuming interest rates stay where they are and don't go much about 7%

But of course that means that also means there will be fewer buyers total = downward pressure on home prices.

I think we'll enter this sort of slow growth or plateau in home prices within a few years. But right now, there's so much pent up demand that people are going crazy with bidding over ask, with escalation clauses, and waiving contingencies.

Maybe I am an outlier but everyone I know in the DC area (contractors, private companies, public companies) has had steady income increases in the last 3 years that has exceeded inflation. The only people who have felt the pain are the actual fed workers.

Agree.

[Anonymous]

:48 - NP here. I love you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Maybe I am an outlier but everyone I know in the DC area (contractors, private companies, public companies) has had steady income increases in the last 3 years that has exceeded inflation. The only people who have felt the pain are the actual fed workers.

I would say, yes - you are an outlier.

I agree- contracting companies are starting to feel the pinch. The one I work for isn't giving promotions or cost of living increases this year. I think things will be worse next year, because these cuts aren't going away (unless you're the FAA of course).

Agree. I'm a project manager at a, shall we say, Large Market defense contractor. Hiring in the DC area (where we are operating) is frozen, and pay increases have been incredibly meager compared to how they were in the mid-2000's.

The defense budget cuts are going to be the major factor for budget cuts in the DC area. If you haven't felt pain yet, congratulations and I wish that it continues for you! However, I can tell you right now that we are set at market competitiveness...and we haven't budgeted for any new hires (we're actually hedging on some attrition) or pay increases above inflation for the next few years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I agree- contracting companies are starting to feel the pinch. The one I work for isn't giving promotions or cost of living increases this year. I think things will be worse next year, because these cuts aren't going away (unless you're the FAA of course).

I work on an FAA contract -- score!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:sorry i couldn't resist i'll try to stop after this one

Are you retarded or something?

And :51, I loath you and your ilk who would prefer to slur the developmentally disabled rather than arguing your point based on its merits? Perhaps you are *retarded* because you lack the cognitive skills to muster one point to defend your view.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Maybe I am an outlier but everyone I know in the DC area (contractors, private companies, public companies) has had steady income increases in the last 3 years that has exceeded inflation. The only people who have felt the pain are the actual fed workers.

I would say, yes - you are an outlier.

I agree- contracting companies are starting to feel the pinch. The one I work for isn't giving promotions or cost of living increases this year. I think things will be worse next year, because these cuts aren't going away (unless you're the FAA of course).

Agree. I'm a project manager at a, shall we say, Large Market defense contractor. Hiring in the DC area (where we are operating) is frozen, and pay increases have been incredibly meager compared to how they were in the mid-2000's.

The defense budget cuts are going to be the major factor for budget cuts in the DC area. If you haven't felt pain yet, congratulations and I wish that it continues for you! However, I can tell you right now that we are set at market competitiveness...and we haven't budgeted for any new hires (we're actually hedging on some attrition) or pay increases above inflation for the next few years.

Yes the large contractors like LM, NG etc... are bloated and expensive where as small to medium are doing fine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Maybe I am an outlier but everyone I know in the DC area (contractors, private companies, public companies) has had steady income increases in the last 3 years that has exceeded inflation. The only people who have felt the pain are the actual fed workers.

I would say, yes - you are an outlier.

I agree- contracting companies are starting to feel the pinch. The one I work for isn't giving promotions or cost of living increases this year. I think things will be worse next year, because these cuts aren't going away (unless you're the FAA of course).

Agree. I'm a project manager at a, shall we say, Large Market defense contractor. Hiring in the DC area (where we are operating) is frozen, and pay increases have been incredibly meager compared to how they were in the mid-2000's.

The defense budget cuts are going to be the major factor for budget cuts in the DC area. If you haven't felt pain yet, congratulations and I wish that it continues for you! However, I can tell you right now that we are set at market competitiveness...and we haven't budgeted for any new hires (we're actually hedging on some attrition) or pay increases above inflation for the next few years.

Yes the large contractors like LM, NG etc... are bloated and expensive where as small to medium are doing fine.

Props to them. However, the primary reason the large contractors are "bloated" is because they've hired a lot of people, especially in the DC metro economy. We're talking jobs and employee income, not whether or not a company is making a profit or a loss. We've all seen enough headlines to know that a profitable company does not necessarily mean a company looking to hire lots of employees.