Reply to Bubble 2.0?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]with any investment prices go up and then go down and then up. The general trend for housing in the macro is up. We still have quite a ways to climb to over 20% peak which would be the point everyone could afford to sell or refi.[/quote]

Yeah, but the problem is, lending standards are tighter, and wages/salaries are not increasing. High level jobs are getting cut, and are being replaced by lower paying jobs.

How can a typical family afford a 700K, 800K, or 1million mortgage with stagnant job growth? I think the only way to afford these homes in the future is for people to save up a 40% or 50% downpayment. Then the mortgage payments will be sustainable, assuming interest rates stay where they are and don't go much about 7%

But of course that means that also means there will be fewer buyers total = downward pressure on home prices.

I think we'll enter this sort of slow growth or plateau in home prices within a few years. But right now, there's so much pent up demand that people are going crazy with bidding over ask, with escalation clauses, and waiving contingencies.[/quote]

Maybe I am an outlier but everyone I know in the DC area (contractors, private companies, public companies) has had steady income increases in the last 3 years that has exceeded inflation. The only people who have felt the pain are the actual fed workers.[/quote]

Agree.[/quote]

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