When will it get bad?

[Anonymous]

These people need to pull their kids and homeschool. Starting dcum threads the day before school starts doesn’t solve their problems.

[Anonymous]

I think these threads need people to clarify if they are in the camp of “I am concerned about my child getting covid-19” and “Even if my child contracts covid-19, i’m not worried about it”. The decision chart for these two groups is going to be different.

I am in FCPS and will not be sending my elementary school child to school tomorrow and instead will be starting a homeschool curriculum until either it pans out that cases are way down like they were in June for our area OR 5-11yo can be vaccinated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think these threads need people to clarify if they are in the camp of “I am concerned about my child getting covid-19” and “Even if my child contracts covid-19, i’m not worried about it”. The decision chart for these two groups is going to be different.

I am in FCPS and will not be sending my elementary school child to school tomorrow and instead will be starting a homeschool curriculum until either it pans out that cases are way down like they were in June for our area OR 5-11yo can be vaccinated.

How about “I am concerned my kids will get Covid 19 but not so concerned I will let anxiety ruin their lives because I can also logically realize that their overall risk of serious complications is still quite low and the only solution to completely avoid delta would be to sequester them in our home entirely until vaccines are here which I can’t do so I will mitigate risk where I can and hope vaccine approval arrives sooner than later” which is where I’m pretty sure 90% of us while the other 10% are on the extreme tail ends in either direction.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:These people need to pull their kids and homeschool. Starting dcum threads the day before school starts doesn’t solve their problems.

I agree. This is nonsense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:VDH modeling said Sept to Oct last I checked. But how bad is bad? The peak is expected to be lower than Jan 2021. I doubt you will need to keep kids home. Unless Governor says so or health dept.

According to who? It’s already worse than Dec 20.

1) not according to your own chart

2) I said according to VDH - Virginia Dept. of Health. And they break it down by area, like Northern VA.

Ahh okay I didn’t recognize the shorthand. And the chart is for before schools officially open (in this area) on the 23rd. Cases are already surging and they will double - making the national outlook in Sept 21 higher than Dec 20 without a doubt.

What do CASES in ALL US have to do with FCPS? Why don't you post the data for Fairfax and show what has happened to deaths as cases have gone up? You won't because that doesn't play into the panic narrative you are trying to spin.

You mean the panic narrative from Dr. Rochelle Walensky of the CDC that vaccine efficiency is wearing off (surprise - we're hitting the sixth month wave of Americans under-65 who were given access in March 2020), a new Delta/Indian variant which is 3x more virulent, and oh - 1 million+ kids (50% of that population unvaxxed) all packed into schools.

WTH do you think this area/FCPS is some sort of bulwark against those odds? Oh, I forgot - a thin mask with 10% efficiency is supposed to stop it.

Your little village is not immune to something sweeping the country.

Are you getting your talking pinots from Trump that you had to specify that Delta is from India? RACIST.

[Anonymous]

Here's the pattern that I've seen.

1. You freaked out and had FCPS close school on a Thursday so our kids couldn't even say good-bye to their friends and teachers or gather any of their supplies or other things.

2. You freaked out because FCPS was doing online-only school and you needed your kid back in school so you made them do concurrent.

3. You freaked out because your kid wasn't in school 4 days a week so you made them bring everyone back 4 days.

4. You freaked out all summer because you were worried there wouldn't be 5 days a school.

5. You're freaking out because the 5 days a week you demanded isn't doing social distancing

WILL YOU EVER BE HAPPY????

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think these threads need people to clarify if they are in the camp of “I am concerned about my child getting covid-19” and “Even if my child contracts covid-19, i’m not worried about it”. The decision chart for these two groups is going to be different.

I am in FCPS and will not be sending my elementary school child to school tomorrow and instead will be starting a homeschool curriculum until either it pans out that cases are way down like they were in June for our area OR 5-11yo can be vaccinated.

How about “I am concerned my kids will get Covid 19 but not so concerned I will let anxiety ruin their lives because I can also logically realize that their overall risk of serious complications is still quite low and the only solution to completely avoid delta would be to sequester them in our home entirely until vaccines are here which I can’t do so I will mitigate risk where I can and hope vaccine approval arrives sooner than later” which is where I’m pretty sure 90% of us while the other 10% are on the extreme tail ends in either direction.

Vaccine approval doesn't help much considering that they don't stop one from contracting or spreading the virus, they just lessen symptoms.

Get the shot, don't get the shot, virus will still spread and sicken people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:VDH modeling said Sept to Oct last I checked. But how bad is bad? The peak is expected to be lower than Jan 2021. I doubt you will need to keep kids home. Unless Governor says so or health dept.

According to who? It’s already worse than Dec 20.

1) not according to your own chart

2) I said according to VDH - Virginia Dept. of Health. And they break it down by area, like Northern VA.

Ahh okay I didn’t recognize the shorthand. And the chart is for before schools officially open (in this area) on the 23rd. Cases are already surging and they will double - making the national outlook in Sept 21 higher than Dec 20 without a doubt.

What do CASES in ALL US have to do with FCPS? Why don't you post the data for Fairfax and show what has happened to deaths as cases have gone up? You won't because that doesn't play into the panic narrative you are trying to spin.

You mean the panic narrative from Dr. Rochelle Walensky of the CDC that vaccine efficiency is wearing off (surprise - we're hitting the sixth month wave of Americans under-65 who were given access in March 2020), a new Delta/Indian variant which is 3x more virulent, and oh - 1 million+ kids (50% of that population unvaxxed) all packed into schools.

WTH do you think this area/FCPS is some sort of bulwark against those odds? Oh, I forgot - a thin mask with 10% efficiency is supposed to stop it.

Your little village is not immune to something sweeping the country.

Are you getting your talking pinots from Trump that you had to specify that Delta is from India? RACIST.

Dp. There is a lot of vitriol pointed to the unvaccinated. One of the complaints is that US "anti vaxxers" are creating variants. It is important to note that delta did not originate in the US, so you can't blame your countrymen for that one. Delta did, in fact, originate in India and it isn't racist to state a fact.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Here's the pattern that I've seen.

1. You freaked out and had FCPS close school on a Thursday so our kids couldn't even say good-bye to their friends and teachers or gather any of their supplies or other things.

2. You freaked out because FCPS was doing online-only school and you needed your kid back in school so you made them do concurrent.

3. You freaked out because your kid wasn't in school 4 days a week so you made them bring everyone back 4 days.

4. You freaked out all summer because you were worried there wouldn't be 5 days a school.

5. You're freaking out because the 5 days a week you demanded isn't doing social distancing

WILL YOU EVER BE HAPPY????

Different subgroups freak out about different things. There is no way to make everyone happy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:VDH modeling said Sept to Oct last I checked. But how bad is bad? The peak is expected to be lower than Jan 2021. I doubt you will need to keep kids home. Unless Governor says so or health dept.

According to who? It’s already worse than Dec 20.

Is this after they unloaded several planes from Afganistan in Dulles airport few days ago?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:VDH modeling said Sept to Oct last I checked. But how bad is bad? The peak is expected to be lower than Jan 2021. I doubt you will need to keep kids home. Unless Governor says so or health dept.

According to who? It’s already worse than Dec 20.

Is this after they unloaded several planes from Afganistan in Dulles airport few days ago?

Omfg

[Anonymous]

They better not f*ng close

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
I plan to keep my kids home when cases rise. Any ideas on when that might be?

I’d be fine with keeping my kindergartner home from the beginning but DH wants him to at least start the year. How long will it be safe?

Op, in case you haven't figured it out, this covid situation changes on a dsily and werkly basis. But, if you want to see the latest modeling from epidemiologists, go to VDH data insights and look at the links for UVA modeling. The full reports come out on Friday afternoons. Two weeks ago, the Fairfax model showed a peak the werk of Sept 5 and a sharp drop immediately after. The last model, however, shows us going up for about a month and then coming down more gradually than the previous model. Bottom line is that the current model shows us being at or above our current case level for about 2 months.

But the model can and will change as more info comes in and as people change their behavior (for better or worse).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Predictions I've seen have been around the 20-30 day mark after school starts.

Our school started Monday, no cases reported Tuesday. 6 cases Wednesday, 12 cases Thursday, 18 cases Friday.

The R0 of Delta is no joke. Where previously it was spreading to 2 - 3 people per infected person, delta is up over 8 based on some studies. That grows FAST.

Which schools in FCPS started Monday, or are you not in Fairfax?

My DC who only has contact with FCPS friends got COVID last week. You can't time this. There will be a lot of cases, they just will be underreported because they are asymptomatic or very mild due to a lot of the kids being vaccinated. My DC's case was mild and we reported it--not everyone will do that. I have friends who view getting COVID as inevitable and won't keep their kids home for a mild case that can be disguised.

This is what scares me and shows how dumb people can be. Yes, for MOST kids this will be nothing. But for that chubby, out of shape kid with a family history of diabetes - perhaps not. That kid could have covid trigger diabetes. Or, that kid with the underlying health issue that you aren't aware of that sits next to your not so sick kid you sent in to school with tylenol -- well, might not be the greatest of outcomes. There might be one kid in each school that could potentially have a serious negative outcome from covid (statistically probably a LOT less) but why would you do that to someone else's kid?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here's the pattern that I've seen.

1. You freaked out and had FCPS close school on a Thursday so our kids couldn't even say good-bye to their friends and teachers or gather any of their supplies or other things.

2. You freaked out because FCPS was doing online-only school and you needed your kid back in school so you made them do concurrent.

3. You freaked out because your kid wasn't in school 4 days a week so you made them bring everyone back 4 days.

4. You freaked out all summer because you were worried there wouldn't be 5 days a school.

5. You're freaking out because the 5 days a week you demanded isn't doing social distancing

WILL YOU EVER BE HAPPY????

Different subgroups freak out about different things. There is no way to make everyone happy.

I’m in group 1-4 above but definitely not freaking out about #5. I’m fine with the current situation.