So the Amazon housing boom isn't happening right

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So we looked for a house in 2018, then went back to our rental and thinking of looking again, so with the winding down of HQ2 frenzy, should we see prices softening a bit so we can get a better place than the dreck we saw in 2018?

Prices are up across the metro, my house up maybe 20% since 2017 which has nothing to do with Amazon HQ2. There won't be a softening related to HQ2.

The crash is coming! WFH is the nail in the coffin for close in NoVa. Can’t wait to scoop up a great place at a significant discount and low interest rate within the next two years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So we looked for a house in 2018, then went back to our rental and thinking of looking again, so with the winding down of HQ2 frenzy, should we see prices softening a bit so we can get a better place than the dreck we saw in 2018?

Prices are up across the metro, my house up maybe 20% since 2017 which has nothing to do with Amazon HQ2. There won't be a softening related to HQ2.

The crash is coming! WFH is the nail in the coffin for close in NoVa. Can’t wait to scoop up a great place at a significant discount and low interest rate within the next two years.

I'm not a booster of close in NOVA or close in anywhere really - I don't care - but you do realize that your comment is kind of well, ironic? is that the right word here?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:To the extent that there was a boom it is still on track. They said in November that they are on schedule with hiring and construction goals. I personally know two people who were hired there in the past 6 months. Also Amazon is not a full-time WFH culture so once everyone is vaccinated they will all be back in the office.

That said...the original projections were not a ton of jobs over ten years so the impact wasn’t going to be as great as some people thought it would be.

What are you talking about? It depends on the division/company and supervisor. Everyone we know works from home except if they want to escape their family or specific jobs that have to be done in the office. Many were never in the office at all. Everyone gets a laptop and is mobile.

The jobs there that actually allow you to buy anything decent in this area are not work from home. My sister is a product manager and all of those positions require moving to the area. Same thing with any of the legal positions that offer real money. Just because people are working from home now doesn’t mean that they will be after the general population is vaccinated.

We are discussing Amazon, not other companies. And, most at Amazon don't make enough to buy a million dollar house.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would not underestimate the impact of NYC’s tax burden compared to Virginia.

DP.. .once again, these types of companies don't care that much about taxes because most of them don't even pay that much relative to their profits.

Amazon did not pick VA because of low taxes. Otherwise they would not have chosen NYC as the other HQ2. They chose where they chose due to proximity to the airport and an educated populace, and availability of a metro.

Google just expanded their NYC office (by a lot). If they cared that much about taxes, why would they have expanded in NYC? Why would they have built out their CA offices?

-someone whose worked in high tech for 20 yrs in the Bay Area

And the ^PP was right.. east coast tech culture is different from west coast/NYC tech culture. The majority of tech jobs around the DC area are directly or indirectly tied to the government.

I'm surprised they are going through with building more office space given the new work at home. Plus, reduced travel.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would not underestimate the impact of NYC’s tax burden compared to Virginia.

DP.. .once again, these types of companies don't care that much about taxes because most of them don't even pay that much relative to their profits.

Amazon did not pick VA because of low taxes. Otherwise they would not have chosen NYC as the other HQ2. They chose where they chose due to proximity to the airport and an educated populace, and availability of a metro.

Google just expanded their NYC office (by a lot). If they cared that much about taxes, why would they have expanded in NYC? Why would they have built out their CA offices?

-someone whose worked in high tech for 20 yrs in the Bay Area

And the ^PP was right.. east coast tech culture is different from west coast/NYC tech culture. The majority of tech jobs around the DC area are directly or indirectly tied to the government.

Harvard put out a piece that hit the nail on the head...

https://hbr.org/2021/01/9-trends-that-will-shape-work-in-2021-and-beyond

Trend #9: "States will compete to attract individual talent rather than trying to get companies to relocate."

Now that consensus has settled upon WFH and a highly mobile workforce being the future, corporate relocations like HQ2 are likely a thing of the past. Instead the focus will be on recruiting individuals. Individuals not only pay taxes but they invest in local ecosystems and make them stronger. Francis Suarez has been doing a fantastic job of this for Miami. If he keeps it up he will be Governor of Florida within a couple cycles.

As much as I like HBR, I don't see full-time WFH as a consensus. Innovative companies can only do so much over a zoom session.

Miami has been booming for about 4 months, let's revisit after a summer in the hellscape that is Florida May-Sep.

Amazon has gone to a work at home culture and had a large work at home culture prior to COVID>

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:To the extent that there was a boom it is still on track. They said in November that they are on schedule with hiring and construction goals. I personally know two people who were hired there in the past 6 months. Also Amazon is not a full-time WFH culture so once everyone is vaccinated they will all be back in the office.

That said...the original projections were not a ton of jobs over ten years so the impact wasn’t going to be as great as some people thought it would be.

What are you talking about? It depends on the division/company and supervisor. Everyone we know works from home except if they want to escape their family or specific jobs that have to be done in the office. Many were never in the office at all. Everyone gets a laptop and is mobile.

The jobs there that actually allow you to buy anything decent in this area are not work from home. My sister is a product manager and all of those positions require moving to the area. Same thing with any of the legal positions that offer real money. Just because people are working from home now doesn’t mean that they will be after the general population is vaccinated.

We are discussing Amazon, not other companies. And, most at Amazon don't make enough to buy a million dollar house.

PP. I’m discussing Amazon. The position she was offered was specifically with Amazon but required moving to the area after the pandemic was over. This was literally a few months ago. She declined because her current company is 100% WFH.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would not underestimate the impact of NYC’s tax burden compared to Virginia.

DP.. .once again, these types of companies don't care that much about taxes because most of them don't even pay that much relative to their profits.

Amazon did not pick VA because of low taxes. Otherwise they would not have chosen NYC as the other HQ2. They chose where they chose due to proximity to the airport and an educated populace, and availability of a metro.

Google just expanded their NYC office (by a lot). If they cared that much about taxes, why would they have expanded in NYC? Why would they have built out their CA offices?

-someone whose worked in high tech for 20 yrs in the Bay Area

And the ^PP was right.. east coast tech culture is different from west coast/NYC tech culture. The majority of tech jobs around the DC area are directly or indirectly tied to the government.

???

And why wouldn’t the employees care about their individual tax burden? Especially with the elimination of the SALT deduction.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would not underestimate the impact of NYC’s tax burden compared to Virginia.

DP.. .once again, these types of companies don't care that much about taxes because most of them don't even pay that much relative to their profits.

Amazon did not pick VA because of low taxes. Otherwise they would not have chosen NYC as the other HQ2. They chose where they chose due to proximity to the airport and an educated populace, and availability of a metro.

Google just expanded their NYC office (by a lot). If they cared that much about taxes, why would they have expanded in NYC? Why would they have built out their CA offices?

-someone whose worked in high tech for 20 yrs in the Bay Area

And the ^PP was right.. east coast tech culture is different from west coast/NYC tech culture. The majority of tech jobs around the DC area are directly or indirectly tied to the government.

Harvard put out a piece that hit the nail on the head...

https://hbr.org/2021/01/9-trends-that-will-shape-work-in-2021-and-beyond

Trend #9: "States will compete to attract individual talent rather than trying to get companies to relocate."

Now that consensus has settled upon WFH and a highly mobile workforce being the future, corporate relocations like HQ2 are likely a thing of the past. Instead the focus will be on recruiting individuals. Individuals not only pay taxes but they invest in local ecosystems and make them stronger. Francis Suarez has been doing a fantastic job of this for Miami. If he keeps it up he will be Governor of Florida within a couple cycles.

As much as I like HBR, I don't see full-time WFH as a consensus. Innovative companies can only do so much over a zoom session.

Miami has been booming for about 4 months, let's revisit after a summer in the hellscape that is Florida May-Sep.

Amazon has gone to a work at home culture and had a large work at home culture prior to COVID>

Source? Why bother building the new campus if that is their long term plan? I’m not convinced this will impact housing but I don’t think WFH will be the reason.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I lived between California and Seattle for 12 years and worked the entire time in the tech industry, including 4 years with Amazon. I finally moved back to the DC area to be near family. Here's what you need to understand: DC's culture is the polar opposite of the west coast. I don't know how else to say it. It's so conservative here. Not politically conservative like pro life/low taxes but just in terms of lifestyle and evaluation of risk. People are not creative in the same ways. They can't envision widescale disruption. Any time there is a startup related post on the DCUM jobs forum it's some absurd question that would never be asked in Silicon Valley, met by equally absurd replies that make me roll my eyes.

If Amazon scales up their office here, they will end up with the culture of a 9-5 consulting firm. That is not what they want. It's a death knell. You can always stick back office and retail folks here but that just negatively reinforces the culture even more.

I wish I knew how to shake up DC's tech scene but it has so much momentum behind what it does well (Gov consulting and services) that I don't think it's possible, and heck that oil well may keep producing for decades to come so there's an argument to keep the status quo as is.

DC's other major problem is NYC. Real estate prices have fallen so much in NYC that it's become extremely attractive to the major tech firms. In the last 4 quarters, Amazon has leased more space in NYC than anywhere else. JB1 always wanted to be there but split HQ2 due to political pressure. If costs continue to fall in NYC and Yang wins the Mayorship, which puts a friendly face in City Hall, then NYC will probably pull back in all of the talent that may have otherwise headed down to DC. If I'm a mid 40s exec in ecommerce, media, or cloud, I would much rather be in the NYC ecosystem, in terms of network and career.

Just my 2 cents. Time will tell.

I don't work in tech - heck, I don't even work in government; I am nonprofits - but I would love to hear more about what you think are the head-shaking questions and answers that you see on the board. What does DC get wrong about startups?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would not underestimate the impact of NYC’s tax burden compared to Virginia.

DP.. .once again, these types of companies don't care that much about taxes because most of them don't even pay that much relative to their profits.

Amazon did not pick VA because of low taxes. Otherwise they would not have chosen NYC as the other HQ2. They chose where they chose due to proximity to the airport and an educated populace, and availability of a metro.

Google just expanded their NYC office (by a lot). If they cared that much about taxes, why would they have expanded in NYC? Why would they have built out their CA offices?

-someone whose worked in high tech for 20 yrs in the Bay Area

And the ^PP was right.. east coast tech culture is different from west coast/NYC tech culture. The majority of tech jobs around the DC area are directly or indirectly tied to the government.

Harvard put out a piece that hit the nail on the head...

https://hbr.org/2021/01/9-trends-that-will-shape-work-in-2021-and-beyond

Trend #9: "States will compete to attract individual talent rather than trying to get companies to relocate."

Now that consensus has settled upon WFH and a highly mobile workforce being the future, corporate relocations like HQ2 are likely a thing of the past. Instead the focus will be on recruiting individuals. Individuals not only pay taxes but they invest in local ecosystems and make them stronger. Francis Suarez has been doing a fantastic job of this for Miami. If he keeps it up he will be Governor of Florida within a couple cycles.

As much as I like HBR, I don't see full-time WFH as a consensus. Innovative companies can only do so much over a zoom session.

Miami has been booming for about 4 months, let's revisit after a summer in the hellscape that is Florida May-Sep.

Amazon has gone to a work at home culture and had a large work at home culture prior to COVID>

Source? Why bother building the new campus if that is their long term plan? I’m not convinced this will impact housing but I don’t think WFH will be the reason.

Very young people (just out of college) may want to be on campus to be social, and become trained...then transition to WFH once they hit late 20s and are more established. Campus will also become internal event space for lots of team get togethers, internal events, "off-sites" (ironically may need to be renamed "on-sites"). That's what my company thinks will happen in the future.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would not underestimate the impact of NYC’s tax burden compared to Virginia.

DP.. .once again, these types of companies don't care that much about taxes because most of them don't even pay that much relative to their profits.

Amazon did not pick VA because of low taxes. Otherwise they would not have chosen NYC as the other HQ2. They chose where they chose due to proximity to the airport and an educated populace, and availability of a metro.

Google just expanded their NYC office (by a lot). If they cared that much about taxes, why would they have expanded in NYC? Why would they have built out their CA offices?

-someone whose worked in high tech for 20 yrs in the Bay Area

And the ^PP was right.. east coast tech culture is different from west coast/NYC tech culture. The majority of tech jobs around the DC area are directly or indirectly tied to the government.

Harvard put out a piece that hit the nail on the head...

https://hbr.org/2021/01/9-trends-that-will-shape-work-in-2021-and-beyond

Trend #9: "States will compete to attract individual talent rather than trying to get companies to relocate."

Now that consensus has settled upon WFH and a highly mobile workforce being the future, corporate relocations like HQ2 are likely a thing of the past. Instead the focus will be on recruiting individuals. Individuals not only pay taxes but they invest in local ecosystems and make them stronger. Francis Suarez has been doing a fantastic job of this for Miami. If he keeps it up he will be Governor of Florida within a couple cycles.

As much as I like HBR, I don't see full-time WFH as a consensus. Innovative companies can only do so much over a zoom session.

Miami has been booming for about 4 months, let's revisit after a summer in the hellscape that is Florida May-Sep.

Amazon has gone to a work at home culture and had a large work at home culture prior to COVID>

Source? Why bother building the new campus if that is their long term plan? I’m not convinced this will impact housing but I don’t think WFH will be the reason.

Its been internal that they keep extending the work from home. We know several people who have moved away to lower cost housing because of it. They will not be full work at home for all but for many it will be more than originally planned.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would not underestimate the impact of NYC’s tax burden compared to Virginia.

DP.. .once again, these types of companies don't care that much about taxes because most of them don't even pay that much relative to their profits.

Amazon did not pick VA because of low taxes. Otherwise they would not have chosen NYC as the other HQ2. They chose where they chose due to proximity to the airport and an educated populace, and availability of a metro.

Google just expanded their NYC office (by a lot). If they cared that much about taxes, why would they have expanded in NYC? Why would they have built out their CA offices?

-someone whose worked in high tech for 20 yrs in the Bay Area

And the ^PP was right.. east coast tech culture is different from west coast/NYC tech culture. The majority of tech jobs around the DC area are directly or indirectly tied to the government.

Harvard put out a piece that hit the nail on the head...

https://hbr.org/2021/01/9-trends-that-will-shape-work-in-2021-and-beyond

Trend #9: "States will compete to attract individual talent rather than trying to get companies to relocate."

Now that consensus has settled upon WFH and a highly mobile workforce being the future, corporate relocations like HQ2 are likely a thing of the past. Instead the focus will be on recruiting individuals. Individuals not only pay taxes but they invest in local ecosystems and make them stronger. Francis Suarez has been doing a fantastic job of this for Miami. If he keeps it up he will be Governor of Florida within a couple cycles.

As much as I like HBR, I don't see full-time WFH as a consensus. Innovative companies can only do so much over a zoom session.

Miami has been booming for about 4 months, let's revisit after a summer in the hellscape that is Florida May-Sep.

Amazon has gone to a work at home culture and had a large work at home culture prior to COVID>

Source? Why bother building the new campus if that is their long term plan? I’m not convinced this will impact housing but I don’t think WFH will be the reason.

Very young people (just out of college) may want to be on campus to be social, and become trained...then transition to WFH once they hit late 20s and are more established. Campus will also become internal event space for lots of team get togethers, internal events, "off-sites" (ironically may need to be renamed "on-sites"). That's what my company thinks will happen in the future.

You cannot be talking about Amazon. They don't "train" employees. That isn't the culture. They don't have team get togethers as people are all over the world as a team. And, its been said that off-sites will not be what they used to.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:To the extent that there was a boom it is still on track. They said in November that they are on schedule with hiring and construction goals. I personally know two people who were hired there in the past 6 months. Also Amazon is not a full-time WFH culture so once everyone is vaccinated they will all be back in the office.

That said...the original projections were not a ton of jobs over ten years so the impact wasn’t going to be as great as some people thought it would be.

What are you talking about? It depends on the division/company and supervisor. Everyone we know works from home except if they want to escape their family or specific jobs that have to be done in the office. Many were never in the office at all. Everyone gets a laptop and is mobile.

The jobs there that actually allow you to buy anything decent in this area are not work from home. My sister is a product manager and all of those positions require moving to the area. Same thing with any of the legal positions that offer real money. Just because people are working from home now doesn’t mean that they will be after the general population is vaccinated.

We are discussing Amazon, not other companies. And, most at Amazon don't make enough to buy a million dollar house.

PP. I’m discussing Amazon. The position she was offered was specifically with Amazon but required moving to the area after the pandemic was over. This was literally a few months ago. She declined because her current company is 100% WFH.

What HR tells you and the actual job are two different things. There are some jobs that you need to go into the office for.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I lived between California and Seattle for 12 years and worked the entire time in the tech industry, including 4 years with Amazon. I finally moved back to the DC area to be near family. Here's what you need to understand: DC's culture is the polar opposite of the west coast. I don't know how else to say it. It's so conservative here. Not politically conservative like pro life/low taxes but just in terms of lifestyle and evaluation of risk. People are not creative in the same ways. They can't envision widescale disruption. Any time there is a startup related post on the DCUM jobs forum it's some absurd question that would never be asked in Silicon Valley, met by equally absurd replies that make me roll my eyes.

If Amazon scales up their office here, they will end up with the culture of a 9-5 consulting firm. That is not what they want. It's a death knell. You can always stick back office and retail folks here but that just negatively reinforces the culture even more.

I wish I knew how to shake up DC's tech scene but it has so much momentum behind what it does well (Gov consulting and services) that I don't think it's possible, and heck that oil well may keep producing for decades to come so there's an argument to keep the status quo as is.

DC's other major problem is NYC. Real estate prices have fallen so much in NYC that it's become extremely attractive to the major tech firms. In the last 4 quarters, Amazon has leased more space in NYC than anywhere else. JB1 always wanted to be there but split HQ2 due to political pressure. If costs continue to fall in NYC and Yang wins the Mayorship, which puts a friendly face in City Hall, then NYC will probably pull back in all of the talent that may have otherwise headed down to DC. If I'm a mid 40s exec in ecommerce, media, or cloud, I would much rather be in the NYC ecosystem, in terms of network and career.




Just my 2 cents. Time will tell.

Andrew Yang has no chance of winning in NYC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would not underestimate the impact of NYC’s tax burden compared to Virginia.

DP.. .once again, these types of companies don't care that much about taxes because most of them don't even pay that much relative to their profits.

Amazon did not pick VA because of low taxes. Otherwise they would not have chosen NYC as the other HQ2. They chose where they chose due to proximity to the airport and an educated populace, and availability of a metro.

Google just expanded their NYC office (by a lot). If they cared that much about taxes, why would they have expanded in NYC? Why would they have built out their CA offices?

-someone whose worked in high tech for 20 yrs in the Bay Area

And the ^PP was right.. east coast tech culture is different from west coast/NYC tech culture. The majority of tech jobs around the DC area are directly or indirectly tied to the government.

Majority but not all. All kinds of non-federal work in:
- Advisory/research/consulting/VCs
- Healthcare/financial/education/services
- Telecomm/ISP/security
- Data/analytics
- Science/energy/research

Not to mention local offices for many larger tech companies.