So the Amazon housing boom isn't happening right

[Anonymous]

Another pike sfh resident, living next to the west pike and no home prices are not bonkers. Not at all. I watch our neighborhood very carefully. While prices are up, they are not crazy like other areas of Arlington. Homes are sitting too, a few in our neighborhood for a long time. The more expensive they are the longer they sit. They sell if they are nice And priced right. It is hard to get above. Million dollars on the west pike. We have not seen the bidding war frenzy like north Arlington, not for Amazon or covid. Maybe an anecdotal example here and there. Prices were flat here for so long, it is nice to see some appreciation. East pike may be different.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Another pike sfh resident, living next to the west pike and no home prices are not bonkers. Not at all. I watch our neighborhood very carefully. While prices are up, they are not crazy like other areas of Arlington. Homes are sitting too, a few in our neighborhood for a long time. The more expensive they are the longer they sit. They sell if they are nice And priced right. It is hard to get above. Million dollars on the west pike. We have not seen the bidding war frenzy like north Arlington, not for Amazon or covid. Maybe an anecdotal example here and there. Prices were flat here for so long, it is nice to see some appreciation. East pike may be different.

Name your neighborhood then? Because there are bidding wars, and houses aren’t on the market past the open house. Look at the history on this West (mid?) Pike house and tell me real estate is stagnant.

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/4428-1st-St-S-22204/home/11260526


Nothing is just sitting if it has a realistic price. Again, started with a lower floor, but definitely not stagnant, unless you bought the biggest nicest house in the neighborhood in 2008 just before the bottom dropped out. But you’d have been hosed in all other Arlington neighborhoods under the same conditions, too.

[Anonymous]

PP here and that is my neighborhood. Some homes were priced low in hope for a bidding war and some owners got them. Others did not. Some sold for below asking. There are some still on the market that in other neighborhoods would have already sold. Depends on the strategy of the seller. But it isn’t consistent with every house like it is in many north Arlington neighborhoods. The gains are not like north Arlington. Period. Never have been and never will be unless the local schools stop being 60%+ Farms. When the market goes down, Barcroft and similar neighborhoods will go down too. Happened the last recession and will happen again. South Arlington is not recession proof.

[Anonymous]

Amazon is going to attract 20s-30s...people who want apartments or condos. South Arlingtonians who thought their 50s split level was gonna go for a Palo Alto $3.5 mil were sorely disappointed, I guess?

[Anonymous]

There was a lot of hype. Amazon employees also will not be interested in living in Marks, won’t qualify for Cafs and probably won’t be interested in living in areas full of marks and cafs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:PP here and that is my neighborhood. Some homes were priced low in hope for a bidding war and some owners got them. Others did not. Some sold for below asking. There are some still on the market that in other neighborhoods would have already sold. Depends on the strategy of the seller. But it isn’t consistent with every house like it is in many north Arlington neighborhoods. The gains are not like north Arlington. Period. Never have been and never will be unless the local schools stop being 60%+ Farms. When the market goes down, Barcroft and similar neighborhoods will go down too. Happened the last recession and will happen again. South Arlington is not recession proof.

You aren’t looking at or citing objective data. But anyway, I don’t need to convince you, not sure why you want to be wrong about this. The neighborhood started off lower, but it has not appreciated more slowly, the opposite in fact. Per Redfin (keep in mind this includes sales of condos and townhomes):

In March 2021, 22204 home prices were up 29.9% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $543K. On average, homes in 22204 sell after 24 days on the market compared to 15 days last year. There were 36 homes sold in March this year, up from 34 last year.

In March 2021, 22207 home prices were up 16.6% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $1.2M. On average, homes in 22207 sell after 34 days on the market compared to 20 days last year. There were 34 homes sold in March this year, down from 41 last year.

[Anonymous]

I thought this discussion was about Amazon. Your numbers reflect covid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PP here and that is my neighborhood. Some homes were priced low in hope for a bidding war and some owners got them. Others did not. Some sold for below asking. There are some still on the market that in other neighborhoods would have already sold. Depends on the strategy of the seller. But it isn’t consistent with every house like it is in many north Arlington neighborhoods. The gains are not like north Arlington. Period. Never have been and never will be unless the local schools stop being 60%+ Farms. When the market goes down, Barcroft and similar neighborhoods will go down too. Happened the last recession and will happen again. South Arlington is not recession proof.

You aren’t looking at or citing objective data. But anyway, I don’t need to convince you, not sure why you want to be wrong about this. The neighborhood started off lower, but it has not appreciated more slowly, the opposite in fact. Per Redfin (keep in mind this includes sales of condos and townhomes):

In March 2021, 22204 home prices were up 29.9% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $543K. On average, homes in 22204 sell after 24 days on the market compared to 15 days last year. There were 36 homes sold in March this year, up from 34 last year.

In March 2021, 22207 home prices were up 16.6% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $1.2M. On average, homes in 22207 sell after 34 days on the market compared to 20 days last year. There were 34 homes sold in March this year, down from 41 last year.

This isn’t apples to apples. 22207 has plenty of McMansions over 1.5 that will sit. 22204 has more condos. If your looking at a standard 3/1.5 colonial or cape cod, the asking price in North Arlington is significantly higher.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Amazon is going to attract 20s-30s...people who want apartments or condos. South Arlingtonians who thought their 50s split level was gonna go for a Palo Alto $3.5 mil were sorely disappointed, I guess?

No they want SFHs too. Don’t most people? You buy a condo because that’s all you can afford not because you want to share walls and here your neighbors have sex.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PP here and that is my neighborhood. Some homes were priced low in hope for a bidding war and some owners got them. Others did not. Some sold for below asking. There are some still on the market that in other neighborhoods would have already sold. Depends on the strategy of the seller. But it isn’t consistent with every house like it is in many north Arlington neighborhoods. The gains are not like north Arlington. Period. Never have been and never will be unless the local schools stop being 60%+ Farms. When the market goes down, Barcroft and similar neighborhoods will go down too. Happened the last recession and will happen again. South Arlington is not recession proof.

You aren’t looking at or citing objective data. But anyway, I don’t need to convince you, not sure why you want to be wrong about this. The neighborhood started off lower, but it has not appreciated more slowly, the opposite in fact. Per Redfin (keep in mind this includes sales of condos and townhomes):

In March 2021, 22204 home prices were up 29.9% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $543K. On average, homes in 22204 sell after 24 days on the market compared to 15 days last year. There were 36 homes sold in March this year, up from 34 last year.

In March 2021, 22207 home prices were up 16.6% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $1.2M. On average, homes in 22207 sell after 34 days on the market compared to 20 days last year. There were 34 homes sold in March this year, down from 41 last year.

This isn’t apples to apples. 22207 has plenty of McMansions over 1.5 that will sit. 22204 has more condos. If your looking at a standard 3/1.5 colonial or cape cod, the asking price in North Arlington is significantly higher.

Agreed, can’t just compare 22204 to 22207 and call it a day. And I don’t have time to provide all the reasons why. If you think 22204 is so great, tell your friends to buy here and stay here all the way through their kid’s high school years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PP here and that is my neighborhood. Some homes were priced low in hope for a bidding war and some owners got them. Others did not. Some sold for below asking. There are some still on the market that in other neighborhoods would have already sold. Depends on the strategy of the seller. But it isn’t consistent with every house like it is in many north Arlington neighborhoods. The gains are not like north Arlington. Period. Never have been and never will be unless the local schools stop being 60%+ Farms. When the market goes down, Barcroft and similar neighborhoods will go down too. Happened the last recession and will happen again. South Arlington is not recession proof.

You aren’t looking at or citing objective data. But anyway, I don’t need to convince you, not sure why you want to be wrong about this. The neighborhood started off lower, but it has not appreciated more slowly, the opposite in fact. Per Redfin (keep in mind this includes sales of condos and townhomes):

In March 2021, 22204 home prices were up 29.9% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $543K. On average, homes in 22204 sell after 24 days on the market compared to 15 days last year. There were 36 homes sold in March this year, up from 34 last year.

In March 2021, 22207 home prices were up 16.6% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $1.2M. On average, homes in 22207 sell after 34 days on the market compared to 20 days last year. There were 34 homes sold in March this year, down from 41 last year.

This isn’t apples to apples. 22207 has plenty of McMansions over 1.5 that will sit. 22204 has more condos. If your looking at a standard 3/1.5 colonial or cape cod, the asking price in North Arlington is significantly higher.

Uh, the discussion was about appreciation and days on market, not absolute price. And it’s spelled “you’re” when you are using that word as a verb/contraction.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PP here and that is my neighborhood. Some homes were priced low in hope for a bidding war and some owners got them. Others did not. Some sold for below asking. There are some still on the market that in other neighborhoods would have already sold. Depends on the strategy of the seller. But it isn’t consistent with every house like it is in many north Arlington neighborhoods. The gains are not like north Arlington. Period. Never have been and never will be unless the local schools stop being 60%+ Farms. When the market goes down, Barcroft and similar neighborhoods will go down too. Happened the last recession and will happen again. South Arlington is not recession proof.

You aren’t looking at or citing objective data. But anyway, I don’t need to convince you, not sure why you want to be wrong about this. The neighborhood started off lower, but it has not appreciated more slowly, the opposite in fact. Per Redfin (keep in mind this includes sales of condos and townhomes):

In March 2021, 22204 home prices were up 29.9% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $543K. On average, homes in 22204 sell after 24 days on the market compared to 15 days last year. There were 36 homes sold in March this year, up from 34 last year.

In March 2021, 22207 home prices were up 16.6% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $1.2M. On average, homes in 22207 sell after 34 days on the market compared to 20 days last year. There were 34 homes sold in March this year, down from 41 last year.

This isn’t apples to apples. 22207 has plenty of McMansions over 1.5 that will sit. 22204 has more condos. If your looking at a standard 3/1.5 colonial or cape cod, the asking price in North Arlington is significantly higher.

Agreed, can’t just compare 22204 to 22207 and call it a day. And I don’t have time to provide all the reasons why. If you think 22204 is so great, tell your friends to buy here and stay here all the way through their kid’s high school years.

What does that have to do with appreciation? Nothing. Okay, here’s more granular data. Your neighborhood has a competitive score of 88/100, which is considered “very competitive.” Here’s what it stays about your neighborhood:

Many homes get multiple offers, some with waived contingencies.
The average homes sell for about 3% above list price and go pending in around 8 days.
Hot homes can sell for about 8% above list price and go pending in around 5 days.

And when you compare that to “North Arlington,” which is rated 56/100, or “somewhat competitive,” it says:

Some homes get multiple offers.
The average homes sell for around list price and go pending in around 34 days.
Hot homes can sell for about 1% above list price and go pending in around 6 days.


Whether a family stays for 5 years or 20 doesn’t matter. Concentration of affordable housing isn’t necessarily a good thing, but even that hasn’t been enough to stop appreciation of neighborhoods with proximity to DC and Amazon, access to Arlington services, and other amenities that are desirable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:PP here and that is my neighborhood. Some homes were priced low in hope for a bidding war and some owners got them. Others did not. Some sold for below asking. There are some still on the market that in other neighborhoods would have already sold. Depends on the strategy of the seller. But it isn’t consistent with every house like it is in many north Arlington neighborhoods. The gains are not like north Arlington. Period. Never have been and never will be unless the local schools stop being 60%+ Farms. When the market goes down, Barcroft and similar neighborhoods will go down too. Happened the last recession and will happen again. South Arlington is not recession proof.

According to this analysis it would seem that South Arlington is appreciating at an equal if not higher rate than some North Arlington neighborhoods (over a 10 year period).

https://www.arlnow.com/2020/11/03/ask-eli-10-year-real-estate-appreciation-in-arlington/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Amazon is going to attract 20s-30s...people who want apartments or condos. South Arlingtonians who thought their 50s split level was gonna go for a Palo Alto $3.5 mil were sorely disappointed, I guess?

No they want SFHs too. Don’t most people? You buy a condo because that’s all you can afford not because you want to share walls and here your neighbors have sex.

Yes and no.

Sure, if you offered people a SFH walkable to work and Metro and bars and restaurants for the same price as a condo, I imagine most people would take it, but that's not the reality of the market. What they want and what they can buy are two different things, and only one of those things actually affects the market.

In the real world there are precious few SFHs in locations like that, in our area there are precious few and all of them are incredibly expensive. So facing that reality, the real world choice Amazon workers are going to be making is:

A) A condo in a great location that's within their budget

B) A SFH in a great location that they couldn't possibly afford

C) A SFH in a place most single, young, tech workers would be bored to tears and would never consider.

There are other considerations too - even if they could afford a SFH a single person neither needs nor wants to furnish and clean (or pay someone to clean) that much space. I live in a small SFH with just my wife and the cleaning and maintenance is by far my least favorite part of owning my home.

[Anonymous]

Real Amazon people here, many people on my AWS team including myself will be relocating from Seattle to HQ2 this fall. We are getting paid the same and we are gonna hire more. Many of us bought last and this year. Many SDE1/2 colleagues who do not have a family are renting apartments.