So the Amazon housing boom isn't happening right

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PP here and that is my neighborhood. Some homes were priced low in hope for a bidding war and some owners got them. Others did not. Some sold for below asking. There are some still on the market that in other neighborhoods would have already sold. Depends on the strategy of the seller. But it isn’t consistent with every house like it is in many north Arlington neighborhoods. The gains are not like north Arlington. Period. Never have been and never will be unless the local schools stop being 60%+ Farms. When the market goes down, Barcroft and similar neighborhoods will go down too. Happened the last recession and will happen again. South Arlington is not recession proof.

According to this analysis it would seem that South Arlington is appreciating at an equal if not higher rate than some North Arlington neighborhoods (over a 10 year period).

https://www.arlnow.com/2020/11/03/ask-eli-10-year-real-estate-appreciation-in-arlington/

Spin as you like, yes “some” north Arlington neighborhoods. The reality of the chart you cite is (1) 22203, which includes areas just north of 50 and includes buckingham (poorest section of the county) has the lowest appreciation in the county at 31%. (2) 22206, south part of south Arlington is only a little better at 35%. (3) 22201 is next lowest at 39%. That is north Arlington, but primarily condos which have been hammered over the last 10 years. I guarantee that the sfh’s in and around Clarendon have appreciated more then condos. Next is 22204 at 39%.

The remaining zip codes are Amazon south Arlington and north Arlington where most shf are located. Those range from 45-52%.

No one is saying that south Arlington zip codes are not appreciating. They are. To many, the prices seem like a bargain because they are so much lower then north Arlington and because values have been relatively stagnant for years. But, they are not increasing at the same rate as almost every zip code in north Arlington.

[Anonymous]

Yup. Total bust.

[Anonymous]

I don't know. My neighborhood has nothing for sale now, everything is snapped up fast. New construction has broken new price ceilings. We would'nt be able to afford to buy here now for what most people in our situation would be willing to pay.

I also see the property tax as becoming very high now. And more owners are hanging on to their property if they move, for a rental, due to low interest rates. So I have seen more SFH rental than there used to be.

Maybe this is also due to the Lee Highway revitalization? And people moving out of DC apartments and rowhouses due to covid, and low interest rates.

[Anonymous]

We sold in Shirlington for $600k before Amazon made their announcement four years ago. Same house just sold again for $700k this year. So, a pretty decent return for the people who bought it from us with $0 down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PP here and that is my neighborhood. Some homes were priced low in hope for a bidding war and some owners got them. Others did not. Some sold for below asking. There are some still on the market that in other neighborhoods would have already sold. Depends on the strategy of the seller. But it isn’t consistent with every house like it is in many north Arlington neighborhoods. The gains are not like north Arlington. Period. Never have been and never will be unless the local schools stop being 60%+ Farms. When the market goes down, Barcroft and similar neighborhoods will go down too. Happened the last recession and will happen again. South Arlington is not recession proof.

According to this analysis it would seem that South Arlington is appreciating at an equal if not higher rate than some North Arlington neighborhoods (over a 10 year period).

https://www.arlnow.com/2020/11/03/ask-eli-10-year-real-estate-appreciation-in-arlington/

Spin as you like, yes “some” north Arlington neighborhoods. The reality of the chart you cite is (1) 22203, which includes areas just north of 50 and includes buckingham (poorest section of the county) has the lowest appreciation in the county at 31%. (2) 22206, south part of south Arlington is only a little better at 35%. (3) 22201 is next lowest at 39%. That is north Arlington, but primarily condos which have been hammered over the last 10 years. I guarantee that the sfh’s in and around Clarendon have appreciated more then condos. Next is 22204 at 39%.

The remaining zip codes are Amazon south Arlington and north Arlington where most shf are located. Those range from 45-52%.

No one is saying that south Arlington zip codes are not appreciating. They are. To many, the prices seem like a bargain because they are so much lower then north Arlington and because values have been relatively stagnant for years. But, they are not increasing at the same rate as almost every zip code in north Arlington.

From that exact chart, 22204, aka the Pike and the West Pike, is 43% appreciation. Keep trying to prove your point that you can’t with actual data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s absolutely boosted crystal city and aurora highlands

Quite honestly, all of South Arlington. And adjacent areas of Fairfax and Alexandria too.

We're heavily invested in Alexandria, Arlington and Fairfax County real estate. There has been no discernable impact and we watch it pretty closely as you can imagine.

On a side note, that new building they are proposing is the ugliest, trashiest proposed building I've ever seen. Like, they couldn't afford a decent architect?

The columbia pike area saw zero Amazon boost increasing prices. If anything it hurt prices in the area because the county board went bananas thinking that all the amazonites would want to live in and around the pike and push out all the affordable housing. So they county doubled down on keeping the pike “affordable.” The pike will never gentrify, especially areas west of glebe. Can’t happen. The areas around the west pike have had a modest increase because of covid, but nothing like other areas of Arlington.

This is about as misinformed as you can get. Check the prices: those areas on the west Pike are seeing a big boost. In fact, prices are rising slightly faster there - because there was so much room to appreciate. How much do you think a SFH in 22207 was going to increase? The areas of 22204 are seeing tremendous gains, because it started as the cheapest place to buy in Arlington.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:PP here and that is my neighborhood. Some homes were priced low in hope for a bidding war and some owners got them. Others did not. Some sold for below asking. There are some still on the market that in other neighborhoods would have already sold. Depends on the strategy of the seller. But it isn’t consistent with every house like it is in many north Arlington neighborhoods. The gains are not like north Arlington. Period. Never have been and never will be unless the local schools stop being 60%+ Farms. When the market goes down, Barcroft and similar neighborhoods will go down too. Happened the last recession and will happen again. South Arlington is not recession proof.

Haven't you figured it out by now? There are tons of buyers who simply DO NOT CARE about the schools. At all. Or they think the schools are perfectly fine for their needs. In either case, you are describing a south Arlington market circa 2008 - which bears no resemblance to the reality of 2021. Catch up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We sold in Shirlington for $600k before Amazon made their announcement four years ago. Same house just sold again for $700k this year. So, a pretty decent return for the people who bought it from us with $0 down.

This is not indicative of anything Amazon. My house is up about 25% over the same time period and isn't anywhere near Amazon.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PP here and that is my neighborhood. Some homes were priced low in hope for a bidding war and some owners got them. Others did not. Some sold for below asking. There are some still on the market that in other neighborhoods would have already sold. Depends on the strategy of the seller. But it isn’t consistent with every house like it is in many north Arlington neighborhoods. The gains are not like north Arlington. Period. Never have been and never will be unless the local schools stop being 60%+ Farms. When the market goes down, Barcroft and similar neighborhoods will go down too. Happened the last recession and will happen again. South Arlington is not recession proof.

You aren’t looking at or citing objective data. But anyway, I don’t need to convince you, not sure why you want to be wrong about this. The neighborhood started off lower, but it has not appreciated more slowly, the opposite in fact. Per Redfin (keep in mind this includes sales of condos and townhomes):

In March 2021, 22204 home prices were up 29.9% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $543K. On average, homes in 22204 sell after 24 days on the market compared to 15 days last year. There were 36 homes sold in March this year, up from 34 last year.

In March 2021, 22207 home prices were up 16.6% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $1.2M. On average, homes in 22207 sell after 34 days on the market compared to 20 days last year. There were 34 homes sold in March this year, down from 41 last year.

This isn’t apples to apples. 22207 has plenty of McMansions over 1.5 that will sit. 22204 has more condos. If your looking at a standard 3/1.5 colonial or cape cod, the asking price in North Arlington is significantly higher.

Uh, the discussion was about appreciation and days on market, not absolute price. And it’s spelled “you’re” when you are using that word as a verb/contraction.

Pat yourself on the back, grammar police. Your service is not needed to understand the meaning of a post, but you do it anyway. I raise a glass to your self-righteousness!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s absolutely boosted crystal city and aurora highlands

Quite honestly, all of South Arlington. And adjacent areas of Fairfax and Alexandria too.

We're heavily invested in Alexandria, Arlington and Fairfax County real estate. There has been no discernable impact and we watch it pretty closely as you can imagine.

On a side note, that new building they are proposing is the ugliest, trashiest proposed building I've ever seen. Like, they couldn't afford a decent architect?

The columbia pike area saw zero Amazon boost increasing prices. If anything it hurt prices in the area because the county board went bananas thinking that all the amazonites would want to live in and around the pike and push out all the affordable housing. So they county doubled down on keeping the pike “affordable.” The pike will never gentrify, especially areas west of glebe. Can’t happen. The areas around the west pike have had a modest increase because of covid, but nothing like other areas of Arlington.

This is about as misinformed as you can get. Check the prices: those areas on the west Pike are seeing a big boost. In fact, prices are rising slightly faster there - because there was so much room to appreciate. How much do you think a SFH in 22207 was going to increase? The areas of 22204 are seeing tremendous gains, because it started as the cheapest place to buy in Arlington.

Ok, but is a house in 22204 the same price or greater than the same house in 22207? Of course a 50k appreciation on a 600k house is a greater percentage than a 50k appreciation on a 800k house. I’d still rather have the 800k house.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We sold in Shirlington for $600k before Amazon made their announcement four years ago. Same house just sold again for $700k this year. So, a pretty decent return for the people who bought it from us with $0 down.

This is not indicative of anything Amazon. My house is up about 25% over the same time period and isn't anywhere near Amazon.

Well, what is it near?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s absolutely boosted crystal city and aurora highlands

Quite honestly, all of South Arlington. And adjacent areas of Fairfax and Alexandria too.

We're heavily invested in Alexandria, Arlington and Fairfax County real estate. There has been no discernable impact and we watch it pretty closely as you can imagine.

On a side note, that new building they are proposing is the ugliest, trashiest proposed building I've ever seen. Like, they couldn't afford a decent architect?

The columbia pike area saw zero Amazon boost increasing prices. If anything it hurt prices in the area because the county board went bananas thinking that all the amazonites would want to live in and around the pike and push out all the affordable housing. So they county doubled down on keeping the pike “affordable.” The pike will never gentrify, especially areas west of glebe. Can’t happen. The areas around the west pike have had a modest increase because of covid, but nothing like other areas of Arlington.

This is about as misinformed as you can get. Check the prices: those areas on the west Pike are seeing a big boost. In fact, prices are rising slightly faster there - because there was so much room to appreciate. How much do you think a SFH in 22207 was going to increase? The areas of 22204 are seeing tremendous gains, because it started as the cheapest place to buy in Arlington.

Ok, but is a house in 22204 the same price or greater than the same house in 22207? Of course a 50k appreciation on a 600k house is a greater percentage than a 50k appreciation on a 800k house. I’d still rather have the 800k house.

Ok, then you’re posting in the wrong thread. This is about whether or not Amazon is fueling the market in adjacent areas. It is, even on the West Pike. And good luck trying to find a livable SFH for $600,000K. That’s a tear-down price. You don’t have your finger on the pulse of local real estate and don’t know how to make money.

[Anonymous]

I don’t know why any of you are comparing prices as they are today. The increases over the last year are due to COVID, not Amazon. So 2020-2021 gains are irrelevant and if there is any gain attributable to Amazon, it is impossible to differentiate the gain from COVID. Likewise, PPs with charts on 10 year gains, not Amazon-related.

If you want to look at potential Amazon numbers, you have to compare 2019-2020 and look for spikes and where. I recall the ask Eli articles saying the spike was mostly statistically notable around the crystal city area, and not really everywhere else.

Yes, prices are up everywhere. 22204 is up too, maybe not as high as most North Arlington zip codes. 43% is high, but others are higher. Yes property taxes are nuts for those hanging on to their property.

And yes, more people are buying in South Arlington neighborhoods with high farms schools. Many do not have kids and plan to move before kids go to school or go private. Schools do matter even now. Obviously someone coming to the neighborhood means that another is leaving- I know 3 who took the opportunity to leave because of schools.

I am one of them. I used to live in a school boundary with a majority immigrant and low income population. We recently moved out because of the schools. OMG I could just kick myself for not doing it sooner despite the financial hit we would have taken. The difference, even remote, is just night and day. Now I know why so many of our neighbors of all backgrounds moved out for schools. I didn’t want to believe it. I am Latina and didn’t want to go there and it pained me deeply. But I did and my child is so much better off.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s absolutely boosted crystal city and aurora highlands

Quite honestly, all of South Arlington. And adjacent areas of Fairfax and Alexandria too.

We're heavily invested in Alexandria, Arlington and Fairfax County real estate. There has been no discernable impact and we watch it pretty closely as you can imagine.

On a side note, that new building they are proposing is the ugliest, trashiest proposed building I've ever seen. Like, they couldn't afford a decent architect?

The columbia pike area saw zero Amazon boost increasing prices. If anything it hurt prices in the area because the county board went bananas thinking that all the amazonites would want to live in and around the pike and push out all the affordable housing. So they county doubled down on keeping the pike “affordable.” The pike will never gentrify, especially areas west of glebe. Can’t happen. The areas around the west pike have had a modest increase because of covid, but nothing like other areas of Arlington.

This is about as misinformed as you can get. Check the prices: those areas on the west Pike are seeing a big boost. In fact, prices are rising slightly faster there - because there was so much room to appreciate. How much do you think a SFH in 22207 was going to increase? The areas of 22204 are seeing tremendous gains, because it started as the cheapest place to buy in Arlington.

Ok, but is a house in 22204 the same price or greater than the same house in 22207? Of course a 50k appreciation on a 600k house is a greater percentage than a 50k appreciation on a 800k house. I’d still rather have the 800k house.

Ok, then you’re posting in the wrong thread. This is about whether or not Amazon is fueling the market in adjacent areas. It is, even on the West Pike. And good luck trying to find a livable SFH for $600,000K. That’s a tear-down price. You don’t have your finger on the pulse of local real estate and don’t know how to make money.

tons of people lost money buying in south Arlington during the height of the market in the early 2000s, only to have things go down in a couple years. South Arlington took a hit then, north Arlington did not or remained the same.

I would not buy in south Arlington right now for the purpose of making money unless you planned to hold the house for at least a decade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We sold in Shirlington for $600k before Amazon made their announcement four years ago. Same house just sold again for $700k this year. So, a pretty decent return for the people who bought it from us with $0 down.

This is not indicative of anything Amazon. My house is up about 25% over the same time period and isn't anywhere near Amazon.

Well, what is it near?

Nothing other than the middle of Fairfax County.