Predictions about how long it will take to know outcome of the election?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Prediction:

1. Initial results known by Wednesday AM
2. Whatever the initial results are, Trump announces clear victory, and denounces the extensive voting fraud he will claim took place in about a dozen or so states
3. By the subsequent Monday, most states will have officially reported
4. GOP will have brought suits in close-call states and possibly other jurisdictions where they have campaign counsel teed up
5. By the statutory deadlines, the SecState offices will certify their electors, EXCEPT in a few states in which Trump has suits still in progress
6. Ultimately the EC will convene being composed of a mix of actual electors and, from some disputed states, electors chosen by local law that enables the Republican state officials to pick the electors
7. Trump will "win" in the EC no matter what the actual popular vote OR the electoral selection is

It’s a good prediction and plausible.
The only problem with this is that Dems are the Secretaries of State in most of the swing states and can move ahead to certify:
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina

The GOP only has the Secretaries of State in OH and FL.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Won’t know for another 4 years and by then, we will be electing Trump jr.

Junior doesn't have much personality. (I don't follow the Trumps so I don't know how much executive management experience he has).

That matters.

[Anonymous]

This is the timeline for the Electoral College. There’s so many people involved who could gum up the process.

All controversies for tabulating votes must be resolved by December 8. So the timeline is even shorter.

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates

Individuals involved in Electoral College voting:
Secretary of State to certify votes
Governor to authorize Certificates of Ascertainment
Electors selected by winning political party to vote on Dec 14
President of Senate and National Archivist receive Electoral College votes before transfer to the House Clerk
VPOTUS, as President of Senate, presides over counting the EC votes
One House member and one Senate member can object to the vote. House & Senate would withdraw to consider objections
VPOTUS would need to declare the winner of Electoral College

No way in hell Republicans will allow this to go forward.

[Anonymous]

It will be called for Biden on election night even with a couple of swing states too close to call for several days until all ballots are counted.

Early in-person votes and huge numbers of mail-in ballots received before election day should be counted on election night with the election day votes. Biden will have big enough leads in the states won by Hillary and at least 4 states won by Trump to give him an electoral vote majority.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is the timeline for the Electoral College. There’s so many people involved who could gum up the process.

All controversies for tabulating votes must be resolved by December 8. So the timeline is even shorter.

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates

Individuals involved in Electoral College voting:
Secretary of State to certify votes
Governor to authorize Certificates of Ascertainment
Electors selected by winning political party to vote on Dec 14
President of Senate and National Archivist receive Electoral College votes before transfer to the House Clerk
VPOTUS, as President of Senate, presides over counting the EC votes
One House member and one Senate member can object to the vote. House & Senate would withdraw to consider objections
VPOTUS would need to declare the winner of Electoral College

No way in hell Republicans will allow this to go forward.

January 6, 2021—Congress counts the electoral votes
Congress meets in joint session to count the electoral votes. The Vice President, as President of the Senate, presides over the count and announces the results of the Electoral College vote. The President of the Senate then declares which persons, if any, have been elected President and Vice President of the United States.

If any objections to the electoral votes are made, they must be submitted in writing and be signed by at least one member of the House and one Senator. If objections are presented, the House and Senate withdraw to their respective chambers to consider the merits of the objection(s) under procedures set out in Federal law.

What?? Pence can gum this up himself??? What am I missing?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It will be called for Biden on election night even with a couple of swing states too close to call for several days until all ballots are counted.

Early in-person votes and huge numbers of mail-in ballots received before election day should be counted on election night with the election day votes. Biden will have big enough leads in the states won by Hillary and at least 4 states won by Trump to give him an electoral vote majority.

Right. And then Barr and the RNC will bring the legal challenges and another type of uncertainty begins.

[Anonymous]

Between exit polling and counting, we’ll know who won within 48 hours.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is the timeline for the Electoral College. There’s so many people involved who could gum up the process.

All controversies for tabulating votes must be resolved by December 8. So the timeline is even shorter.

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates

Individuals involved in Electoral College voting:
Secretary of State to certify votes
Governor to authorize Certificates of Ascertainment
Electors selected by winning political party to vote on Dec 14
President of Senate and National Archivist receive Electoral College votes before transfer to the House Clerk
VPOTUS, as President of Senate, presides over counting the EC votes
One House member and one Senate member can object to the vote. House & Senate would withdraw to consider objections
VPOTUS would need to declare the winner of Electoral College

No way in hell Republicans will allow this to go forward.

January 6, 2021—Congress counts the electoral votes
Congress meets in joint session to count the electoral votes. The Vice President, as President of the Senate, presides over the count and announces the results of the Electoral College vote. The President of the Senate then declares which persons, if any, have been elected President and Vice President of the United States.

If any objections to the electoral votes are made, they must be submitted in writing and be signed by at least one member of the House and one Senator. If objections are presented, the House and Senate withdraw to their respective chambers to consider the merits of the objection(s) under procedures set out in Federal law.

What?? Pence can gum this up himself??? What am I missing?

It is a formality. He can't change the electoral votes or refuse to acknowledge them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Between exit polling and counting, we’ll know who won within 48 hours.

Is this even what the media uses to actually declare winners?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Between exit polling and counting, we’ll know who won within 48 hours.

Exit polling is useless when so many people are voting by mail. Why do you think they call it “exit” polling?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is the timeline for the Electoral College. There’s so many people involved who could gum up the process.

All controversies for tabulating votes must be resolved by December 8. So the timeline is even shorter.

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates

Individuals involved in Electoral College voting:
Secretary of State to certify votes
Governor to authorize Certificates of Ascertainment
Electors selected by winning political party to vote on Dec 14
President of Senate and National Archivist receive Electoral College votes before transfer to the House Clerk
VPOTUS, as President of Senate, presides over counting the EC votes
One House member and one Senate member can object to the vote. House & Senate would withdraw to consider objections
VPOTUS would need to declare the winner of Electoral College

No way in hell Republicans will allow this to go forward.

January 6, 2021—Congress counts the electoral votes
Congress meets in joint session to count the electoral votes. The Vice President, as President of the Senate, presides over the count and announces the results of the Electoral College vote. The President of the Senate then declares which persons, if any, have been elected President and Vice President of the United States.

If any objections to the electoral votes are made, they must be submitted in writing and be signed by at least one member of the House and one Senator. If objections are presented, the House and Senate withdraw to their respective chambers to consider the merits of the objection(s) under procedures set out in Federal law.

What?? Pence can gum this up himself??? What am I missing?

It is a formality. He can't change the electoral votes or refuse to acknowledge them.

But he will.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Between exit polling and counting, we’ll know who won within 48 hours.

Is this even what the media uses to actually declare winners?

Yes, it’s what they’ve traditionally used. They shouldn’t even conduct them this year because the sample will be so skewed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Between exit polling and counting, we’ll know who won within 48 hours.

Is this even what the media uses to actually declare winners?

Yes, which is why 2000 and 2016 were effed up, because Florida and then manipulated returns that didn't jibe with scientific polling that had been accurate for the previous 100 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think we will "know" that night or early the next day. Trump and Barr will drag the challenges until Dec 14, and it will be like 2000 all over again.

I suspect it will be the other way around; Trump soft winner election night, followed by DNC protests. The delay/drama will be from swing state inner-cities due to deluge of absentee ballot counting. Fox News, Rush and Ben Shapiro will immediately push ballot harvesting conspiracies.

[Anonymous]

NYT: Anthony Spano, a Trump supporter in Old Forge, Pa., said the president was “so right” when he warned of potential fraud by Democrats. “If they think there’s unrest now, just wait to see if they try to steal this election,” said Mr. Spano, who has worked as a truck mechanic. “Personally, I think people that are nonviolent, we’re going to get very violent.”

Some Dems are saying the violence will continue if Trump wins. Not that they'll do it, but that it will happen.

This Republican is taking it a step further.