Predictions about how long it will take to know outcome of the election?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I believe they it is going to be such a landslide for Trump and Rs down the ballot that even the Stacey Abrams of the world who lose by 50,000 votes won’t know what hit them.

What do you base this on?

NP, but Lichtman’s prediction model, general national sentiment and polling reflecting dissatisfaction with Trump (including military!) and last of all.... hope.

Hope floats!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My friend who is very involved in Michigan voter access (its their job) predicts that MI won’t release results until late November. This is because MI can’t start counting mail and absentee ballot until the polls close on Election Day.

Virginia cant count the absentee ballots until the polls close at 7pmon Election Day, but they can feed the ballots into a machine prior to that and then just tally it after 7PM, just like the machines in the precincts. I have a friend who is part of election protection and she said they expect up to 400,000 absentee ballots (these include the voting at the In Person Absentee places open up to Election Day). That is a HUGE percentage of Fairfax County’s electorate.

[Anonymous]

We won't know until December 13th at the latest. It is really important that the word is out that it will take days/weeks to get the absentee and mail-in ballots counted.

Trump is going to claim victory based on election day returns, which, this year, will be a percentage of the total vote.

[Anonymous]

If Trump isn’t leading in-person voting on Election Night by more than, say, 60-40, we will ultimately lose the state.

Secretaries of State can also refuse to release any results until mail-in ballots are counted. It wouldn’t surprise me if a large chunk of states are radio silent for a week or two.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My friend who is very involved in Michigan voter access (its their job) predicts that MI won’t release results until late November. This is because MI can’t start counting mail and absentee ballot until the polls close on Election Day.

And it takes that long?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My friend who is very involved in Michigan voter access (its their job) predicts that MI won’t release results until late November. This is because MI can’t start counting mail and absentee ballot until the polls close on Election Day.

And it takes that long?

With all the legal challenges the GOP will mount to count the mail-in votes? YES.

[Anonymous]

Frankly I cannot understand why elections are so difficult in the USA. I am from Italy, a much less than well organized country with a population that is a 5th of the USA. there is no absentee voting, no weeks of early voting and no electronic machines of any kind. people vote normally on a Sunday, sometimes Sunday and the following Monday.

I was never in line for more than 20-30 minutes in the 25 years i voted there. the ballots are all paper ballots that are put in a box by the voter. when the polls close, the boxes are opened and the paper ballots are counted and the vote registered one by one, manually. normally the polls close around 9pm and results are in by the following morning. how the heck we can do something like that and the USA can't? how come the USA cannot have enough voting places so people are not in line for 5-6 hours? how come the USA cannot have enough people to count the paper votes?

[Anonymous]

The GOP just needs to gum up the counting of votes. They will file an avalanche of lawsuits to prevent or temporarily suspend states from counting. If local officials violate judges’ orders to halt counting while coming to a decision, the GOP will appeal to have those counted votes tossed out permanently.

GOP needs to file enough lawsuits to get things jammed up until December 14. The counting of mail-in votes will start and shutdown multiple times while the courts take time to weigh in. GOP will appeal every state decision, all the way to the SC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Frankly I cannot understand why elections are so difficult in the USA. I am from Italy, a much less than well organized country with a population that is a 5th of the USA. there is no absentee voting, no weeks of early voting and no electronic machines of any kind. people vote normally on a Sunday, sometimes Sunday and the following Monday.

I was never in line for more than 20-30 minutes in the 25 years i voted there. the ballots are all paper ballots that are put in a box by the voter. when the polls close, the boxes are opened and the paper ballots are counted and the vote registered one by one, manually. normally the polls close around 9pm and results are in by the following morning. how the heck we can do something like that and the USA can't? how come the USA cannot have enough voting places so people are not in line for 5-6 hours? how come the USA cannot have enough people to count the paper votes?

1) we vote on a tuesday because voter suppression
2) we don't have enough drop boxes because voter suppression
3) we don't have enough polling places in heavily urban areas because voter suppression
4) we use electronic voting because the machines are hackable and thus votes changeable with no paper record.

Does that answer your question?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Frankly I cannot understand why elections are so difficult in the USA. I am from Italy, a much less than well organized country with a population that is a 5th of the USA. there is no absentee voting, no weeks of early voting and no electronic machines of any kind. people vote normally on a Sunday, sometimes Sunday and the following Monday.

I was never in line for more than 20-30 minutes in the 25 years i voted there. the ballots are all paper ballots that are put in a box by the voter. when the polls close, the boxes are opened and the paper ballots are counted and the vote registered one by one, manually. normally the polls close around 9pm and results are in by the following morning. how the heck we can do something like that and the USA can't? how come the USA cannot have enough voting places so people are not in line for 5-6 hours? how come the USA cannot have enough people to count the paper votes?

Because the richest people in US society remain in power by preventing Americans from voting. You have a political party that spends tens of millions annually to disenfranchise their fellow citizens. There is no solidarity in the United States.

These delays and complications are all done on purpose to try to influence the outcome of American elections.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Frankly I cannot understand why elections are so difficult in the USA. I am from Italy, a much less than well organized country with a population that is a 5th of the USA. there is no absentee voting, no weeks of early voting and no electronic machines of any kind. people vote normally on a Sunday, sometimes Sunday and the following Monday.

I was never in line for more than 20-30 minutes in the 25 years i voted there. the ballots are all paper ballots that are put in a box by the voter. when the polls close, the boxes are opened and the paper ballots are counted and the vote registered one by one, manually. normally the polls close around 9pm and results are in by the following morning. how the heck we can do something like that and the USA can't? how come the USA cannot have enough voting places so people are not in line for 5-6 hours? how come the USA cannot have enough people to count the paper votes?

1) we vote on a tuesday because voter suppression
2) we don't have enough drop boxes because voter suppression
3) we don't have enough polling places in heavily urban areas because voter suppression
4) we use electronic voting because the machines are hackable and thus votes changeable with no paper record. (And no digital trail, thanks to Diebold.)

Does that answer your question?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The GOP just needs to gum up the counting of votes. They will file an avalanche of lawsuits to prevent or temporarily suspend states from counting. If local officials violate judges’ orders to halt counting while coming to a decision, the GOP will appeal to have those counted votes tossed out permanently.

GOP needs to file enough lawsuits to get things jammed up until December 14. The counting of mail-in votes will start and shutdown multiple times while the courts take time to weigh in. GOP will appeal every state decision, all the way to the SC.

+1

[Anonymous]

Prediction:

1. Initial results known by Wednesday AM
2. Whatever the initial results are, Trump announces clear victory, and denounces the extensive voting fraud he will claim took place in about a dozen or so states
3. By the subsequent Monday, most states will have officially reported
4. GOP will have brought suits in close-call states and possibly other jurisdictions where they have campaign counsel teed up
5. By the statutory deadlines, the SecState offices will certify their electors, EXCEPT in a few states in which Trump has suits still in progress
6. Ultimately the EC will convene being composed of a mix of actual electors and, from some disputed states, electors chosen by local law that enables the Republican state officials to pick the electors
7. Trump will "win" in the EC no matter what the actual popular vote OR the electoral selection is

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Prediction:

1. Initial results known by Wednesday AM
2. Whatever the initial results are, Trump announces clear victory, and denounces the extensive voting fraud he will claim took place in about a dozen or so states
3. By the subsequent Monday, most states will have officially reported
4. GOP will have brought suits in close-call states and possibly other jurisdictions where they have campaign counsel teed up
5. By the statutory deadlines, the SecState offices will certify their electors, EXCEPT in a few states in which Trump has suits still in progress
6. Ultimately the EC will convene being composed of a mix of actual electors and, from some disputed states, electors chosen by local law that enables the Republican state officials to pick the electors
7. Trump will "win" in the EC no matter what the actual popular vote OR the electoral selection is

please stop it

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Prediction:

1. Initial results known by Wednesday AM
2. Whatever the initial results are, Trump announces clear victory, and denounces the extensive voting fraud he will claim took place in about a dozen or so states
3. By the subsequent Monday, most states will have officially reported
4. GOP will have brought suits in close-call states and possibly other jurisdictions where they have campaign counsel teed up
5. By the statutory deadlines, the SecState offices will certify their electors, EXCEPT in a few states in which Trump has suits still in progress
6. Ultimately the EC will convene being composed of a mix of actual electors and, from some disputed states, electors chosen by local law that enables the Republican state officials to pick the electors
7. Trump will "win" in the EC no matter what the actual popular vote OR the electoral selection is

This, unfortunately, is a very reasonable prediction.