Have you noticed 538's recent Senate forecast trend?

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11/06/2018 20:18

Subject: Have you noticed 538's recent Senate forecast trend?

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Anonymous

Anonymous wrote:THIS ELECTION WILL TELL ME WHICH STATES I WILL NEVER LIVE IN

That makes me happy, because I know you won't probably won't be living in the states I'm considering a relocation to!!!!

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11/06/2018 20:24

Subject: Have you noticed 538's recent Senate forecast trend?

quote

Anonymous

The predictive ness of the polls critically depends on the turnout assumption embedded in the polls. I have been watching the two early voting blogs in Nevada and Florida, and both suggest a turnout more favorable to Democrats than the polls suggest (specifically for the Nelson-Scott and Rosen-Heller races). So I am cautiously optimistic for the night.