How much higher do you think DC area prices can go long-term?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look at SF. They can definitely go higher, there are enough people here with salaries to afford them - those that can't will be priced out.

Hah, only yesterday there was talk about the deflating of the tech bubble, which is why SF real estate is enjoying its own bubble.

In DC, about 90% of homeowners could not afford to purchase at todays prices; we have such low inventory that the constrained supply has triggered a bubble (unlike before, when it was a demand driven bubble). Look at the housing stats: there are fewer and fewer first time buyers every month. Ponzi scheme, with home owners and investors selling homes back and forth to each other -- you better be liquid if you are the one left holding the bag.

Capital city. DC has a long way to go before in same league as London or Paris, like generations. And may never happen because of the cultural and commercial diversity that those towns offer, while DC is a company town. Don't get me wrong, it is a nice town. But the only real attraction to why people move here is jobs; if the housing is so expensive that the jobs really are not paying enough, people will stop moving here and prices will drop. And there are very few jobs that must be located in DC, even law and lobbying could migrate if their salary costs are rising too fast trying to support employees cost of living. They'll just move back office to NC or Ohio, and leave a few partners and frontmen here; that would not support the population of the metro area.

Again you talk out of your rear without any facts, provide some links to your wild theories. Do you even know what a Ponzi scheme is, this is a classic supply and demand issue coupled with a recovering economy.

You are the only person that believes DC isn't the same league as london or paris, in fact it is much better off and has much more new developments in and around it.

People will move to where the jobs are. They won't avoid places with jobs because of high housing costs, in fact high COL will translate into higher salaries.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look at SF. They can definitely go higher, there are enough people here with salaries to afford them - those that can't will be priced out.

Hah, only yesterday there was talk about the deflating of the tech bubble, which is why SF real estate is enjoying its own bubble.

In DC, about 90% of homeowners could not afford to purchase at todays prices; we have such low inventory that the constrained supply has triggered a bubble (unlike before, when it was a demand driven bubble). Look at the housing stats: there are fewer and fewer first time buyers every month. Ponzi scheme, with home owners and investors selling homes back and forth to each other -- you better be liquid if you are the one left holding the bag.

Capital city. DC has a long way to go before in same league as London or Paris, like generations. And may never happen because of the cultural and commercial diversity that those towns offer, while DC is a company town. Don't get me wrong, it is a nice town. But the only real attraction to why people move here is jobs; if the housing is so expensive that the jobs really are not paying enough, people will stop moving here and prices will drop. And there are very few jobs that must be located in DC, even law and lobbying could migrate if their salary costs are rising too fast trying to support employees cost of living. They'll just move back office to NC or Ohio, and leave a few partners and frontmen here; that would not support the population of the metro area.

Again you talk out of your rear without any facts, provide some links to your wild theories. Do you even know what a Ponzi scheme is, this is a classic supply and demand issue coupled with a recovering economy.

You are the only person that believes DC isn't the same league as london or paris, in fact it is much better off and has much more new developments in and around it.

People will move to where the jobs are. They won't avoid places with jobs because of high housing costs, in fact high COL will translate into higher salaries.

Unless you work for the feds.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The amount of money in this area is staggering. House prices will likely continue to rise. It is a shame that there are so few good options for moderate and lower income families. I am pretty conservative, but even I think it's time to raise the minimum wage in this area.

May I introduce you to this thread: http://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/374409.page The amount of money in this area is nothing compared to certain other areas.

I don't disagree that there are few good options for low / middle income families, and that is a problem. However, real estate can go much higher when the local economy is doing well - see the linked thread.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look at SF. They can definitely go higher, there are enough people here with salaries to afford them - those that can't will be priced out.

Hah, only yesterday there was talk about the deflating of the tech bubble, which is why SF real estate is enjoying its own bubble.

In DC, about 90% of homeowners could not afford to purchase at todays prices; we have such low inventory that the constrained supply has triggered a bubble (unlike before, when it was a demand driven bubble). Look at the housing stats: there are fewer and fewer first time buyers every month. Ponzi scheme, with home owners and investors selling homes back and forth to each other -- you better be liquid if you are the one left holding the bag.

Capital city. DC has a long way to go before in same league as London or Paris, like generations. And may never happen because of the cultural and commercial diversity that those towns offer, while DC is a company town. Don't get me wrong, it is a nice town. But the only real attraction to why people move here is jobs; if the housing is so expensive that the jobs really are not paying enough, people will stop moving here and prices will drop. And there are very few jobs that must be located in DC, even law and lobbying could migrate if their salary costs are rising too fast trying to support employees cost of living. They'll just move back office to NC or Ohio, and leave a few partners and frontmen here; that would not support the population of the metro area.

Again you talk out of your rear without any facts, provide some links to your wild theories. Do you even know what a Ponzi scheme is, this is a classic supply and demand issue coupled with a recovering economy.

You are the only person that believes DC isn't the same league as london or paris, in fact it is much better off and has much more new developments in and around it.

People will move to where the jobs are. They won't avoid places with jobs because of high housing costs, in fact high COL will translate into higher salaries.

I'm sorry, you are delusional. Have you ever been to London or Paris?? Yes, that ubiquitous steel and faux brick architecture here will not be the next 70s brown concrete albatross in 20 years, but will be the next Second Empire style.

My point is that employers will decamp to cheaper markets for the majority of their personnel rather than pay higher salaries for COL. What value does proximity truly bring for 90% of employees here? This is already happening in California as companies move to avoid the high cost of hiring people (http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-07-03/why-are-californias-businesses-disappearing). I agree, they will come here as long as we are only market hiring; but once other parts of the country are hiring again, DC will drop down to folks move-to list, just like in the 90s. Unemployment dropped throughout the 90s in DC, but it was still a pit and few people wanted to live there, despite strong job market: http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

Series Id: LAUDV114789400000003
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Area: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Division
Area Type: Metropolitan divisions
State/Region/Division: District of Columbia



True, Ponzi scheme is poor choice of word. I'm not sure what to call a circular market without new participants which are just selling back and forth to each other for higher and higher prices. Krugman pointed this out in last bubble: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/12/opinion/12krugman.html?_r=0 Long and short of it, there are no first time buyers, so this is unsustainable; in that way it is like a Ponzi scheme.

[Anonymous]

"DC in the same league as London or Paris."

Hahhahahahahahhhahahhaah!!!..... hahahaha!!!..
...

Hahahahah!!!....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:"DC in the same league as London or Paris."

Hahhahahahahahhhahahhaah!!!..... hahahaha!!!..
...

Hahahahah!!!....

Actually DC Is better! Why would you want terrible unemployment, expensive old tiny housing .

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:"DC in the same league as London or Paris."

Hahhahahahahahhhahahhaah!!!..... hahahaha!!!..
...

Hahahahah!!!....

Actually DC Is better! Why would you want terrible unemployment, expensive old tiny housing .

True. DC is better. I love the smaller feel of DC, how educated DC is and how beautiful. Paris/London are crumbling cesspits.

[Anonymous]

It is getting difficult for first-timers to afford. Good that this group is not needed in order for values to continue to rise due to the influx of cash from all around the world.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It is getting difficult for first-timers to afford. Good that this group is not needed in order for values to continue to rise due to the influx of cash from all around the world.

Do you have any proof this is a real thing save for a few trophy properties by high level Chinese mucky mucks?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It is getting difficult for first-timers to afford. Good that this group is not needed in order for values to continue to rise due to the influx of cash from all around the world.

I can make stuff up without posting sources.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It is getting difficult for first-timers to afford. Good that this group is not needed in order for values to continue to rise due to the influx of cash from all around the world.

I think there may be some truth to this.
Where does this money come from? Are people here THAT much more productive than they are in other places?
DH and I are newly arrived Feds. We are completely priced out unless we move way, way out. We'd really like to be able to put some roots down here, but it looks extremely difficult.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is getting difficult for first-timers to afford. Good that this group is not needed in order for values to continue to rise due to the influx of cash from all around the world.

I think there may be some truth to this.
Where does this money come from? Are people here THAT much more productive than they are in other places?
DH and I are newly arrived Feds. We are completely priced out unless we move way, way out. We'd really like to be able to put some roots down here, but it looks extremely difficult.

Eh, foreign nationals aren't rushing over to purchase 1940s shacks in Arlington.

And as Fed tapers, these foreign currencies will just be worth a whole lot less.
http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/BL-REB-23567

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:"DC in the same league as London or Paris."

Hahhahahahahahhhahahhaah!!!..... hahahaha!!!..
...

Hahahahah!!!....

Actually DC Is better! Why would you want terrible unemployment, expensive old tiny housing .

True. DC is better. I love the smaller feel of DC, how educated DC is and how beautiful. Paris/London are crumbling cesspits.

DC is an easy place to live but it's hardly a world class city like Paris or London.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well I'm priced out and won't be buying.

--130K HHI

nonsense there is a place for everyone's price point.

I have a family and cannot afford a townhouse or a home on my income. 30K above the mean and median income in this area.

How is it possible that you can't afford even a townhouse, unless you're looking in the most expensive parts of the area, have tons of other expenses, or have minimal cash savings?

[Anonymous]

EOTR is still very affordable. Oh wait, I forgot that when we talk about DC we're secretly only referring to NW.