Did you guys just see the latest job report? The forecast was so off

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Did you guys just see the latest job report?

Wow the forecast was so off. 130k jobs added vs 55k estimated.

health care led job gains in December, adding 82,000 positions. Social assistance also rose, up 42,000

The jobs added reinforced an aging population with only 1 sector namely health care being the only sector continually adding jobs.

The jobs numbers haven't been credible since Trump fired McEntarfer.

How many worker bees are responsible for compiling parts of this data? You think they would stay quiet if the numbers presented were wildly out of whack?

Hello, I am a worker bee at the Department of Labor in a different division. I am staying quiet about what I see because you can’t run to journalists about things that are just borderline, no one cares about the shenanigans that do get reported, and I need to put food on the table.

Hi there! Please hang on. Every sane person will be needed to dig out of this Administration's mess.

I’m in a different (also inportant) statistical agency and also trapped in this same kind of moral calculus on a daily basis. I hate it and don’t know what to do

[Anonymous]

The administration itself was expecting lower job numbers. Why the good news all of the sudden?

Peter Navarro(Trade and Manufacturing Senior Counselor to the President): "The jobs report comes out tomorrow. We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like ... Wall Street has to adjust for the fact that we're deporting millions of illegals out of the job market."

https://x.com/atrupar/status/2021227426555088924

[Anonymous]

One of the issues with the methodology is that businesses that are hiring tend to respond faster than businesses that are laying people off which is one of the reasons for downward revisions in the data. Also their birth/death model results in reporting issues as well.

[Anonymous]

And yet no one has anything positive to say...

[Anonymous]

Lies - any number that can be manipulated in Trumps favor WILL be manipulated

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Did you guys just see the latest job report?

Wow the forecast was so off. 130k jobs added vs 55k estimated.

health care led job gains in December, adding 82,000 positions. Social assistance also rose, up 42,000

The jobs added reinforced an aging population with only 1 sector namely health care being the only sector continually adding jobs.

It's straightforward: replacement workers were hired for the "illegals" who stopped working or were deported. The jobs lost by these workers weren't counted in the job report because they weren't citizens.

In short, deporting more individuals can artificially boost employment numbers without any real job creation.

I guess most of the people deported worked in the healthcare industry? Because that's where the job growth is showing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Did you guys just see the latest job report?

Wow the forecast was so off. 130k jobs added vs 55k estimated.

health care led job gains in December, adding 82,000 positions. Social assistance also rose, up 42,000

The jobs added reinforced an aging population with only 1 sector namely health care being the only sector continually adding jobs.

The jobs numbers haven't been credible since Trump fired McEntarfer.

All of us with recent college graduates know the truth. There are no jobs. What a joke this corrupt, vile administration is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Did you guys just see the latest job report?

Wow the forecast was so off. 130k jobs added vs 55k estimated.

health care led job gains in December, adding 82,000 positions. Social assistance also rose, up 42,000

The jobs added reinforced an aging population with only 1 sector namely health care being the only sector continually adding jobs.

The jobs numbers haven't been credible since Trump fired McEntarfer.

All of us with recent college graduates know the truth. There are no jobs. What a joke this corrupt, vile administration is.

I though everyone here had kids in IB or at a FAANG making seven figures.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Calm down folks. By end of the day the market will be down significantly because the revisions to 2025 data were massive. Unfortunately media have these "ready to go" articles to publish as soon as the data is out and as a result miss the true story.

The true story of this report is that the 2025 labor market was an absolute catastrophe. And the other catastrophe was that the Fed kept telling us that the labor market was (still is) strong. The credibility of the Federal reserve is really being tested here. The excuse that they have to rely on whatever BLS shows them need to stop. They have to find a way to have a better accurate reading of the economy in real time. I'm sure all the fantastic PhDs we have from Harvard, Berkeley etc can be more innovative than what they are showing us or what they are allowed to show us.

Ooh girl tell me more

[Anonymous]

The initial job numbers are revised significantly downward each time. It’s been the pattern for the entirety of the Trump administration. There is no chance these are the real numbers. They drop by 50% or more next month.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The initial job numbers are revised significantly downward each time. It’s been the pattern for the entirety of the Trump administration. There is no chance these are the real numbers. They drop by 50% or more next month.

This is actually an issue that preceded the Trump administration and relates to the delay (or lack of response) from employers and the numbers eventually get reconciled to the state unemployment commission data. There is probably a better way to collect the data but of course no one is willing to appropriate money for BLS to implement such a system.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The initial job numbers are revised significantly downward each time. It’s been the pattern for the entirety of the Trump administration. There is no chance these are the real numbers. They drop by 50% or more next month.

This is actually an issue that preceded the Trump administration and relates to the delay (or lack of response) from employers and the numbers eventually get reconciled to the state unemployment commission data. There is probably a better way to collect the data but of course no one is willing to appropriate money for BLS to implement such a system.

There was some of this issue in the last year of Biden but it is much much worse for the first year of Trump. It may be a technical issue and not bad faith, but regardless of the cause it is real and so no one should believe the initial job numbers. They are totally meaningless.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When I saw the headlines I went straight to AI to inquire about revisions. Here's what gemini says

"Based on February 11, 2026, BLS data, the 2025 annual benchmark revision drastically lowered US job growth, showing only 181,000 jobs added for the year, down from the initially reported 584,000. This significant downward revision for March 2025 and subsequent months, totaling roughly 862,000 to 898,000 fewer jobs, indicates a much weaker labor market than previously thought. "

Wow just wow. Clearly tariffs accelerated layoffs. Remember economic data are often captured by lagging indicator.

My quick math tells me that in 2025 we added an average of 15k per month wow just wow.

Our unemployed citizens were not lying when they complain that they can't find jobs. And they are still struggling.

If I were a Democrat I wouldn't focus on these numbers. I will focus on the actual people struggling tp find jobs. The folks who need to put food on the table. Citizens can care less about entries in an excel spreadsheet.

But I am.putrong too much faith on a party that has proven to simply be incapable of seizing the moment. Their recent victories are not the result of them suddenly doing something, rather folks are just voting against the folks currently in power.

There's been massive revisions down for several years now. The model broke with covid.

[Anonymous]

The data is not fake. I am a Democrat so sure I could jump on it to fit a narrative, but that will disingenuous.

There is raw data available for this. The methodology has not changed.

What people forget is that under all previous administration BLS has always been the punching bag as far as agency experiencing budget cut.

The BLS is under staffed. And the methodology they use require lots of human resources. And response rates have been decreasing. This explain the wild revisions we have been seeing lately.

Read the report closely.

Let me ask you a question. If you think this is fa, do you also think that the revisions that essentially wiped out all jobs created for 2025 were also fake? There were from the same report.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Also regarding BLS numbers. They're not reporting all of the numbers like they have in the past. They're only reporting certain data points and that helps them skew their numbers to fit their narrative. The data points, which will show huge swings in the negative are not even being reported so they're not impacting the statistical calculation.

Lying about jobs numbers actually makes it less likely the Fed will cut rates. For instance, the market had been pricing in a rate cut in June. Now due to these "better than expected" numbers, it's being priced in for July. If they want their rate cuts, it would actually behoove them to lie in the opposite direction, though of course then that would conflict with the "best economy ever" narrative.