Did you guys just see the latest job report? The forecast was so off
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Anonymous
Hello, I am a worker bee at the Department of Labor in a different division. I am staying quiet about what I see because you can’t run to journalists about things that are just borderline, no one cares about the shenanigans that do get reported, and I need to put food on the table. |
Anonymous
Wow just wow. Clearly tariffs accelerated layoffs. Remember economic data are often captured by lagging indicator. My quick math tells me that in 2025 we added an average of 15k per month wow just wow. Our unemployed citizens were not lying when they complain that they can't find jobs. And they are still struggling. If I were a Democrat I wouldn't focus on these numbers. I will focus on the actual people struggling tp find jobs. The folks who need to put food on the table. Citizens can care less about entries in an excel spreadsheet. But I am.putrong too much faith on a party that has proven to simply be incapable of seizing the moment. Their recent victories are not the result of them suddenly doing something, rather folks are just voting against the folks currently in power. |
Anonymous
Let’s think this through. By not keeping quiet what does that mean? Speaking up to their bosses? That’s pointless. Speaking out to the media? And then they get fired and then harassed and god knows what. So heck yes they are keeping quiet. The ones who saw the writing on the wall have probably already left. |
Anonymous
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There's never been a discrepancy this large between the industry estimate and BLS. Given how much this administration lies, I don't believe it for a second. The market watchers don't either.
Of course fake numbers absolutely could devastate US stability as the lies show even more volatility and lack of transparency. |
Anonymous
| Also regarding BLS numbers. They're not reporting all of the numbers like they have in the past. They're only reporting certain data points and that helps them skew their numbers to fit their narrative. The data points, which will show huge swings in the negative are not even being reported so they're not impacting the statistical calculation. |
Anonymous
They’ll get fired if they don’t and they know there are no jobs out there! |
Anonymous
Too many people want to be the people who opine about the data. Few want to be the fed workers at the bottom of the food chain who produce and compile the data (e.g., Bureau of Labor Statistics). I worked at another agency long ago and had a coworker who used to say: "BLS waits for me like the pit". I also interviewed with the IRS Statistics of Income Division long ago and they left me to have a 1:1 conversation with a recent W&M economics grad. She whispered to me that her job was terrible and not to join. I liked the federal job I finally chose. I had great, committed colleagues and my job felt very productive and socially valuable. I was in more of a policy and regulatory role. The data-gathering shops had more of a boring, low emotional reward reputation. Although the stability and relatively low political pressure was valued at that time. I can only imagine what it's like now with no stability and forced retirements of experienced staff and a President who promotes lying. |
Anonymous
| 130k is not a good number. You need about 200k and higher. |
Anonymous
Hi there! Please hang on. Every sane person will be needed to dig out of this Administration's mess. |
Anonymous
This. Ugh. |
Anonymous
What worries me most and will be the end for workers in America will be if we privatize our national economic data. There are a lot Florida-based crooks in this administration. They would love to privatize BLS data and hand it over to one of their pal in the wild wild south of Florida to a no name company. Can you imagine the excitement in corporate America when the government is no longer the one providing job data but a fellow private company instead. Wow. Just think about the ramifications. |
Anonymous
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Calm down folks. By end of the day the market will be down significantly because the revisions to 2025 data were massive. Unfortunately media have these "ready to go" articles to publish as soon as the data is out and as a result miss the true story.
The true story of this report is that the 2025 labor market was an absolute catastrophe. And the other catastrophe was that the Fed kept telling us that the labor market was (still is) strong. The credibility of the Federal reserve is really being tested here. The excuse that they have to rely on whatever BLS shows them need to stop. They have to find a way to have a better accurate reading of the economy in real time. I'm sure all the fantastic PhDs we have from Harvard, Berkeley etc can be more innovative than what they are showing us or what they are allowed to show us. |
Anonymous
Yeah the ADP payrolls report shows a much more bleak picture and that is an independent report |
Anonymous
This part actually doesn't surprise me because the jobs that are being added are low paying jobs in Healthcare and social services. |
Anonymous
It's straightforward: replacement workers were hired for the "illegals" who stopped working or were deported. The jobs lost by these workers weren't counted in the job report because they weren't citizens. In short, deporting more individuals can artificially boost employment numbers without any real job creation. |