Effect on MCPS? : 'MoCo Revenues Crash and Burn'

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Back to the original purpose of this thread....

This is going to have significant impact on MCPS. I predict:

- Expect more school closures. Taylor already said this but we can't sustain the number of schools with the conditions they are in
- Expect class sizes to go up again. As buildings are closed and boundaries are reshaped, class sizes will go up.
- Teachers shouldn't expect raises for a while. They got them in the last budget cycle and they probably won't get another raise for 3 years at least.
- Programs will be cut. Not sure which ones, but with federal and state funding disappearing, some services in MCPS also have to go away.

Yes. Related to various things going on, I think fiscal pressures and enrollment decline make it likely that:
- Crown will be a holding school
- A few of the ESs on the CIP will not be funded for renovation/replacement

I think the Crown outcome is really up in the air. The City of Gaithersburg is throwing its weight around, and they donated the land specifically for a new school. I think if it is a holding school, it has to be one for a finite time in the same way that Woodward is serving for Northwood.

I also think it could be that Wootton becomes the new Crown, but then many legacy neighborhoods will no longer have access to Wootton, which will cause quite a bit of uproar.

Really, it comes to down to who MCPS is more comfortable with pissing off: Rockville or Gaithersburg. I think MCPS would choose Rockville over Gaithersburg, but it's going to be a nasty fight with some serious wounds along the way.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Back to the original purpose of this thread....

This is going to have significant impact on MCPS. I predict:

- Expect more school closures. Taylor already said this but we can't sustain the number of schools with the conditions they are in
- Expect class sizes to go up again. As buildings are closed and boundaries are reshaped, class sizes will go up.
- Teachers shouldn't expect raises for a while. They got them in the last budget cycle and they probably won't get another raise for 3 years at least.
- Programs will be cut. Not sure which ones, but with federal and state funding disappearing, some services in MCPS also have to go away.

Yes. Related to various things going on, I think fiscal pressures and enrollment decline make it likely that:
- Crown will be a holding school
- A few of the ESs on the CIP will not be funded for renovation/replacement

I think the Crown outcome is really up in the air. The City of Gaithersburg is throwing its weight around, and they donated the land specifically for a new school. I think if it is a holding school, it has to be one for a finite time in the same way that Woodward is serving for Northwood.

I also think it could be that Wootton becomes the new Crown, but then many legacy neighborhoods will no longer have access to Wootton, which will cause quite a bit of uproar.

Really, it comes to down to who MCPS is more comfortable with pissing off: Rockville or Gaithersburg. I think MCPS would choose Rockville over Gaithersburg, but it's going to be a nasty fight with some serious wounds along the way.

Right, I should have said "holding school or Option H" because the latter is also very possible, and if enough Gaithersburg clusters are included in Option H perhaps lawsuits would be avoided.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Yes — that’s a very sharp diagnosis, and it gets at something MC (and a lot of affluent low-density places) rarely say out loud.

What you’re describing is a structural mismatch between form, expectations, and revenue.

“Not proper towns” is the key insight

Much of the Wootton / North Potomac / Darnestown area is:

Residential-only zoning

No real town centers

No tax-productive main streets

No walkable commercial base

Retail pushed to arterials or strip centers

Jobs elsewhere (Rockville Pike, I-270, DC)

So functionally:

People live there, but the place itself doesn’t produce much.

That’s the core problem.

Why this creates spending stress

Low-density, estate-style suburbs tend to:

🔻 Under-produce revenue

Very high infrastructure cost per household
(roads, pipes, buses, schools, emergency services)

Property taxes don’t scale linearly with lot size

Little commercial or mixed-use tax base

🔺 Over-demand services

Top-tier schools

Athletic fields, arts, APs, IB-style programming

Road maintenance on long, lightly traveled roads

School transportation (no walkability)

This creates a permanent fiscal gap.

The psychological mismatch

Residents expect:

“Suburban amenities”
(top schools, libraries, pools, transit access, retail)

Without:

Density

Mixed use

Apartments

Commercial intensity

But those amenities are normally paid for by towns — real ones — with:

Downtowns

Offices

Multi-family housing

Sales and business taxes

Wootton-area communities opted out of being towns, but still want the benefits.

Why Gaithersburg is a town (and why this causes tension)

Gaithersburg (actual city + surrounding areas):

Has:

Apartments

Offices

Transit nodes

Commercial corridors

Generates:

Sales tax

Business tax

More efficient service delivery

So when MCPS or the county tries to blend these areas, residents sense (correctly) that:

“We’re being asked to share outcomes without having shared the same development bargain.”

This is why spending feels “inefficient”

It’s not waste so much as form-driven inefficiency:

Buses run long routes to serve few students

Schools serve wide catchments

Roads serve homes, not destinations

Amenities must be duplicated rather than centralized

A real town amortizes those costs.
A pseudo-rural estate suburb cannot.

The uncomfortable truth

The model only works if:

Property values keep rising fast

Or density is quietly added elsewhere to subsidize it

When growth slows or equity mandates increase, the cracks show — especially in school boundaries.

Plain language summary

You’re basically saying:

“This place was designed to look rural, function like a suburb, and be funded like a town — and that math doesn’t work.”

TL;DR

Easy formula. Makers <<<<< Takers. Eventually you run out of spending other people's money.

Good summary. We can only pay for so much deadweight.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Back to the original purpose of this thread....

This is going to have significant impact on MCPS. I predict:

- Expect more school closures. Taylor already said this but we can't sustain the number of schools with the conditions they are in
- Expect class sizes to go up again. As buildings are closed and boundaries are reshaped, class sizes will go up.
- Teachers shouldn't expect raises for a while. They got them in the last budget cycle and they probably won't get another raise for 3 years at least.
- Programs will be cut. Not sure which ones, but with federal and state funding disappearing, some services in MCPS also have to go away.

Yes, and the increase in class sizes and general strain on funds will cause applications to private school to increase.
https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/1304526.page

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Back to the original purpose of this thread....

This is going to have significant impact on MCPS. I predict:

- Expect more school closures. Taylor already said this but we can't sustain the number of schools with the conditions they are in
- Expect class sizes to go up again. As buildings are closed and boundaries are reshaped, class sizes will go up.
- Teachers shouldn't expect raises for a while. They got them in the last budget cycle and they probably won't get another raise for 3 years at least.
- Programs will be cut. Not sure which ones, but with federal and state funding disappearing, some services in MCPS also have to go away.

Yes. Related to various things going on, I think fiscal pressures and enrollment decline make it likely that:
- Crown will be a holding school
- A few of the ESs on the CIP will not be funded for renovation/replacement

I think the Crown outcome is really up in the air. The City of Gaithersburg is throwing its weight around, and they donated the land specifically for a new school. I think if it is a holding school, it has to be one for a finite time in the same way that Woodward is serving for Northwood.

I also think it could be that Wootton becomes the new Crown, but then many legacy neighborhoods will no longer have access to Wootton, which will cause quite a bit of uproar.

Really, it comes to down to who MCPS is more comfortable with pissing off: Rockville or Gaithersburg. I think MCPS would choose Rockville over Gaithersburg, but it's going to be a nasty fight with some serious wounds along the way.

What does Rockville have to do with this? Wootton isn't in Rockville. Though, it would have been nice had they taken some of the Rootten kids and balance the RM kids over to Rockville, so we don't have a double standard school system in Rockville.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Back to the original purpose of this thread....

This is going to have significant impact on MCPS. I predict:

- Expect more school closures. Taylor already said this but we can't sustain the number of schools with the conditions they are in
- Expect class sizes to go up again. As buildings are closed and boundaries are reshaped, class sizes will go up.
- Teachers shouldn't expect raises for a while. They got them in the last budget cycle and they probably won't get another raise for 3 years at least.
- Programs will be cut. Not sure which ones, but with federal and state funding disappearing, some services in MCPS also have to go away.

Yes. Related to various things going on, I think fiscal pressures and enrollment decline make it likely that:
- Crown will be a holding school
- A few of the ESs on the CIP will not be funded for renovation/replacement

I think the Crown outcome is really up in the air. The City of Gaithersburg is throwing its weight around, and they donated the land specifically for a new school. I think if it is a holding school, it has to be one for a finite time in the same way that Woodward is serving for Northwood.

I also think it could be that Wootton becomes the new Crown, but then many legacy neighborhoods will no longer have access to Wootton, which will cause quite a bit of uproar.

Really, it comes to down to who MCPS is more comfortable with pissing off: Rockville or Gaithersburg. I think MCPS would choose Rockville over Gaithersburg, but it's going to be a nasty fight with some serious wounds along the way.

What does Rockville have to do with this? Wootton isn't in Rockville. Though, it would have been nice had they taken some of the Rootten kids and balance the RM kids over to Rockville, so we don't have a double standard school system in Rockville.

It is in Rockville.

If you mean it's not in the City of Rockville, I didn't say it was.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Back to the original purpose of this thread....

This is going to have significant impact on MCPS. I predict:

- Expect more school closures. Taylor already said this but we can't sustain the number of schools with the conditions they are in
- Expect class sizes to go up again. As buildings are closed and boundaries are reshaped, class sizes will go up.
- Teachers shouldn't expect raises for a while. They got them in the last budget cycle and they probably won't get another raise for 3 years at least.
- Programs will be cut. Not sure which ones, but with federal and state funding disappearing, some services in MCPS also have to go away.

Yes. Related to various things going on, I think fiscal pressures and enrollment decline make it likely that:
- Crown will be a holding school
- A few of the ESs on the CIP will not be funded for renovation/replacement

I think the Crown outcome is really up in the air. The City of Gaithersburg is throwing its weight around, and they donated the land specifically for a new school. I think if it is a holding school, it has to be one for a finite time in the same way that Woodward is serving for Northwood.

I also think it could be that Wootton becomes the new Crown, but then many legacy neighborhoods will no longer have access to Wootton, which will cause quite a bit of uproar.

Really, it comes to down to who MCPS is more comfortable with pissing off: Rockville or Gaithersburg. I think MCPS would choose Rockville over Gaithersburg, but it's going to be a nasty fight with some serious wounds along the way.

What does Rockville have to do with this? Wootton isn't in Rockville. Though, it would have been nice had they taken some of the Rootten kids and balance the RM kids over to Rockville, so we don't have a double standard school system in Rockville.

It is in Rockville.

If you mean it's not in the City of Rockville, I didn't say it was.

Actually, I just checked and Wootton actually is within the city limits of the City of Rockville, so what are you talking about?

https://rockvillemd.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=0aa9fe18b6c64b46a61230da64a2b2fd

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Back to the original purpose of this thread....

This is going to have significant impact on MCPS. I predict:

- Expect more school closures. Taylor already said this but we can't sustain the number of schools with the conditions they are in
- Expect class sizes to go up again. As buildings are closed and boundaries are reshaped, class sizes will go up.
- Teachers shouldn't expect raises for a while. They got them in the last budget cycle and they probably won't get another raise for 3 years at least.
- Programs will be cut. Not sure which ones, but with federal and state funding disappearing, some services in MCPS also have to go away.

Yes. Related to various things going on, I think fiscal pressures and enrollment decline make it likely that:
- Crown will be a holding school
- A few of the ESs on the CIP will not be funded for renovation/replacement

I think the Crown outcome is really up in the air. The City of Gaithersburg is throwing its weight around, and they donated the land specifically for a new school. I think if it is a holding school, it has to be one for a finite time in the same way that Woodward is serving for Northwood.

I also think it could be that Wootton becomes the new Crown, but then many legacy neighborhoods will no longer have access to Wootton, which will cause quite a bit of uproar.

Really, it comes to down to who MCPS is more comfortable with pissing off: Rockville or Gaithersburg. I think MCPS would choose Rockville over Gaithersburg, but it's going to be a nasty fight with some serious wounds along the way.

What does Rockville have to do with this? Wootton isn't in Rockville. Though, it would have been nice had they taken some of the Rootten kids and balance the RM kids over to Rockville, so we don't have a double standard school system in Rockville.

It is in Rockville.

If you mean it's not in the City of Rockville, I didn't say it was.

DP. Wootton is in fact in the City of Rockville.

[Anonymous]

We wouldn't have nearly as many problems in MCPS if we funded schools like we did in the past. The budget has nominally increased, but inflation-adjusted per-pupil funding has gone down. And that don't even adjust for the higher labor costs these days.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Back to the original purpose of this thread....

This is going to have significant impact on MCPS. I predict:

- Expect more school closures. Taylor already said this but we can't sustain the number of schools with the conditions they are in
- Expect class sizes to go up again. As buildings are closed and boundaries are reshaped, class sizes will go up.
- Teachers shouldn't expect raises for a while. They got them in the last budget cycle and they probably won't get another raise for 3 years at least.
- Programs will be cut. Not sure which ones, but with federal and state funding disappearing, some services in MCPS also have to go away.

Yes. Related to various things going on, I think fiscal pressures and enrollment decline make it likely that:
- Crown will be a holding school
- A few of the ESs on the CIP will not be funded for renovation/replacement

I think the Crown outcome is really up in the air. The City of Gaithersburg is throwing its weight around, and they donated the land specifically for a new school. I think if it is a holding school, it has to be one for a finite time in the same way that Woodward is serving for Northwood.

I also think it could be that Wootton becomes the new Crown, but then many legacy neighborhoods will no longer have access to Wootton, which will cause quite a bit of uproar.

Really, it comes to down to who MCPS is more comfortable with pissing off: Rockville or Gaithersburg. I think MCPS would choose Rockville over Gaithersburg, but it's going to be a nasty fight with some serious wounds along the way.

What does Rockville have to do with this? Wootton isn't in Rockville. Though, it would have been nice had they taken some of the Rootten kids and balance the RM kids over to Rockville, so we don't have a double standard school system in Rockville.

It is in Rockville.

If you mean it's not in the City of Rockville, I didn't say it was.

Actually, I just checked and Wootton actually is within the city limits of the City of Rockville, so what are you talking about?

https://rockvillemd.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=0aa9fe18b6c64b46a61230da64a2b2fd

It doesn't serve Rockville. So, who cares, get it out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Back to the original purpose of this thread....

This is going to have significant impact on MCPS. I predict:

- Expect more school closures. Taylor already said this but we can't sustain the number of schools with the conditions they are in
- Expect class sizes to go up again. As buildings are closed and boundaries are reshaped, class sizes will go up.
- Teachers shouldn't expect raises for a while. They got them in the last budget cycle and they probably won't get another raise for 3 years at least.
- Programs will be cut. Not sure which ones, but with federal and state funding disappearing, some services in MCPS also have to go away.

Yes. Related to various things going on, I think fiscal pressures and enrollment decline make it likely that:
- Crown will be a holding school
- A few of the ESs on the CIP will not be funded for renovation/replacement

I think the Crown outcome is really up in the air. The City of Gaithersburg is throwing its weight around, and they donated the land specifically for a new school. I think if it is a holding school, it has to be one for a finite time in the same way that Woodward is serving for Northwood.

I also think it could be that Wootton becomes the new Crown, but then many legacy neighborhoods will no longer have access to Wootton, which will cause quite a bit of uproar.

Really, it comes to down to who MCPS is more comfortable with pissing off: Rockville or Gaithersburg. I think MCPS would choose Rockville over Gaithersburg, but it's going to be a nasty fight with some serious wounds along the way.

What does Rockville have to do with this? Wootton isn't in Rockville. Though, it would have been nice had they taken some of the Rootten kids and balance the RM kids over to Rockville, so we don't have a double standard school system in Rockville.

It is in Rockville.

If you mean it's not in the City of Rockville, I didn't say it was.

Actually, I just checked and Wootton actually is within the city limits of the City of Rockville, so what are you talking about?

https://rockvillemd.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=0aa9fe18b6c64b46a61230da64a2b2fd

It doesn't serve Rockville. So, who cares, get it out.

It serves part of Rockville. What is your problem?

[Anonymous]

Make way for some brand new data centers to be built!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m still fuming that the casino revenue that was predominantly supposed to go to schools isn’t.

I thought that it did but that it was not an augmented amount. Meaning the casino revenue replaced the existing revenue. So the casino revenue was funneled to the schools and then they used the existing school revenue to fund something else.

It was supposed to increase school funding, not just allow them to shift funding to another project and backfill with casino money. Total bait and switch.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m still fuming that the casino revenue that was predominantly supposed to go to schools isn’t.

I thought that it did but that it was not an augmented amount. Meaning the casino revenue replaced the existing revenue. So the casino revenue was funneled to the schools and then they used the existing school revenue to fund something else.

It was supposed to increase school funding, not just allow them to shift funding to another project and backfill with casino money. Total bait and switch.

Even the money is in the hands of MCPS, it went to contracts for boundary studies, studies of various fancy programs, DEI, "training", more "training", lunch, busing, to name just a few. Anything but the real increase for excellent teacher's pay. BTW, I am not a teacher.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Back to the original purpose of this thread....

This is going to have significant impact on MCPS. I predict:

- Expect more school closures. Taylor already said this but we can't sustain the number of schools with the conditions they are in
- Expect class sizes to go up again. As buildings are closed and boundaries are reshaped, class sizes will go up.
- Teachers shouldn't expect raises for a while. They got them in the last budget cycle and they probably won't get another raise for 3 years at least.
- Programs will be cut. Not sure which ones, but with federal and state funding disappearing, some services in MCPS also have to go away.

Yes. Related to various things going on, I think fiscal pressures and enrollment decline make it likely that:
- Crown will be a holding school
- A few of the ESs on the CIP will not be funded for renovation/replacement

I think the Crown outcome is really up in the air. The City of Gaithersburg is throwing its weight around, and they donated the land specifically for a new school. I think if it is a holding school, it has to be one for a finite time in the same way that Woodward is serving for Northwood.

I also think it could be that Wootton becomes the new Crown, but then many legacy neighborhoods will no longer have access to Wootton, which will cause quite a bit of uproar.

Really, it comes to down to who MCPS is more comfortable with pissing off: Rockville or Gaithersburg. I think MCPS would choose Rockville over Gaithersburg, but it's going to be a nasty fight with some serious wounds along the way.

What does Rockville have to do with this? Wootton isn't in Rockville. Though, it would have been nice had they taken some of the Rootten kids and balance the RM kids over to Rockville, so we don't have a double standard school system in Rockville.

It is in Rockville.

If you mean it's not in the City of Rockville, I didn't say it was.

Actually, I just checked and Wootton actually is within the city limits of the City of Rockville, so what are you talking about?

https://rockvillemd.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=0aa9fe18b6c64b46a61230da64a2b2fd

It doesn't serve Rockville. So, who cares, get it out.

It serves part of Rockville. What is your problem?

Not going to bat for the 10 to 20% of students from Rockville. When the other 80% don't pay Rockville taxes.