Predicted Enrollment Decline in FCPS Materializes

[Anonymous]

An observation:

If the number listed is true, it is quite a drop.

However, last year, the number grew by about a thousand from September to June.
The year before it grew by about 2000.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The current Kindergarten and 1st graders were born DURING covid. As in during the lock down part where people probably didn’t want to get pregnant. We are noticing declines in APS in those grades as well. We had lower pre-k numbers last year as well and they are now back to being filled. I think it is a depressed year numbers wise because of COVID lockdowns.

You are off by one year. My baby concieved on February 14, 2020 was born in November of 2020. He is 4, and will go to kindergarten next year.

The kids currently in kindergarten may were conceived prior to COVID.

[Anonymous]

Declining birth rate

Federal job cuts

Deportations and less immigration to the area

Increase in private school and homeschool enrollments (due to frustration with safety, quality education, overused and unsafe technology, drugs/vaping, violence, unqualified staff to fill vacancies, unchecked bullying, transgender bathroom/locker room issues).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The current Kindergarten and 1st graders were born DURING covid. As in during the lock down part where people probably didn’t want to get pregnant. We are noticing declines in APS in those grades as well. We had lower pre-k numbers last year as well and they are now back to being filled. I think it is a depressed year numbers wise because of COVID lockdowns.

Current 1st graders were born October 2018 through September 2019 (age six by September 30, 2025). Current Ks, October 2019 through September 2020 (age five by September 30, 2025). Both were conceived before Covid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My guess is that this is from layoffs as well as immigration enforcement activities in Northern Virginia. The area is getting hit hard from multiple angles.

I was at my family’s house in OH recently and there was a news report on declining enrollment numbers in Columbus by 11%, they linked it to several reasons including reduced birth rates.

Of course they did. MAGAs don’t want to own up to the fact that throwing immigrants out will have an impact. Easier to blame it on something else.

So you are upset we won't have to educate children from other countries with our taxes?

Exactly. They are illegal immigrants not paying taxes to fund our schools. These students increase class size, often don’t speak English, and take resources from students with parents paying taxes.

Yes, they do pay taxes. Stop watching Fox News.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The current Kindergarten and 1st graders were born DURING covid. As in during the lock down part where people probably didn’t want to get pregnant. We are noticing declines in APS in those grades as well. We had lower pre-k numbers last year as well and they are now back to being filled. I think it is a depressed year numbers wise because of COVID lockdowns.

Current 1st graders were born October 2018 through September 2019 (age six by September 30, 2025). Current Ks, October 2019 through September 2020 (age five by September 30, 2025). Both were conceived before Covid.

My daughter is a 2019 birth (1st grade). I also have a kid born in 2016. I recall at the time nationwide birth rates in 2019 were much lower than 2016. Things were already trending down. But that difference was nothing compared to the drop off seen in 2020, 2021 and I think even into 2022. I'm not sure it ever even recovered. So this is just going to get much worse in the coming years.

[Anonymous]

So will our taxes go down?That might help the area recover.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So will our taxes go down?That might help the area recover.

No. They are going up. They will continue to go up unless the spending goes down.

The dollars are being spent in the wrong places.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So will our taxes go down?That might help the area recover. [/

The county tax rate already went down last year. If your tax due went up it is because your property value went up. If we get a recession in our area, your property value will decline and your taxes will go down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The current Kindergarten and 1st graders were born DURING covid. As in during the lock down part where people probably didn’t want to get pregnant. We are noticing declines in APS in those grades as well. We had lower pre-k numbers last year as well and they are now back to being filled. I think it is a depressed year numbers wise because of COVID lockdowns.

You are off by one year. My baby concieved on February 14, 2020 was born in November of 2020. He is 4, and will go to kindergarten next year.

The kids currently in kindergarten may were conceived prior to COVID.

Ew. You could just say February 2020. You don’t need to give us specifics of your amorous pandemic Valentine’s Day. 🤣

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The current Kindergarten and 1st graders were born DURING covid. As in during the lock down part where people probably didn’t want to get pregnant. We are noticing declines in APS in those grades as well. We had lower pre-k numbers last year as well and they are now back to being filled. I think it is a depressed year numbers wise because of COVID lockdowns.

You are off by one year. My baby concieved on February 14, 2020 was born in November of 2020. He is 4, and will go to kindergarten next year.

The kids currently in kindergarten may were conceived prior to COVID.

Ew. You could just say February 2020. You don’t need to give us specifics of your amorous pandemic Valentine’s Day. 🤣

And that was a pre-pandemic Valentine’s Day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My guess is that this is from layoffs as well as immigration enforcement activities in Northern Virginia. The area is getting hit hard from multiple angles.

I was at my family’s house in OH recently and there was a news report on declining enrollment numbers in Columbus by 11%, they linked it to several reasons including reduced birth rates.

Of course they did. MAGAs don’t want to own up to the fact that throwing immigrants out will have an impact. Easier to blame it on something else.

So you are upset we won't have to educate children from other countries with our taxes?

Exactly. They are illegal immigrants not paying taxes to fund our schools. These students increase class size, often don’t speak English, and take resources from students with parents paying taxes.

I get upset at this. I was told by 2 different elementary school teachers that they could help my child with reading and speech because they were too overwhelmed with kids that year who didn’t speak English. My kid had an IEP and I still had to go for outside help for them. The school’s resources were tapped out for non-english speaking kids. It was a higher priority for them. 😢

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My guess is that this is from layoffs as well as immigration enforcement activities in Northern Virginia. The area is getting hit hard from multiple angles.

In addition to declining birth rates....

Yeah, this. This is the big one.

I think it's also true that Fairfax County as a whole is really less family friendly than some surrounding counties. The county knows it makes more money off of, for example, building new senior housing, and they're prioritizing that (and trying to bring back businesses) over trying to attract new families.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:2025 had some of the highest graduating classes across the nation (boom year from kids born in 2007) - LBSS alone had one of their biggest graduating classes and presumably other high schools did too.
So, yeah, enrollment is down b/c a ton of seniors are gone now.
So the statistics might not be as dramatic as you think.

2026 is the biggest graduating class.

It will drop even more next year and keep dropping each year after that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The current Kindergarten and 1st graders were born DURING covid. As in during the lock down part where people probably didn’t want to get pregnant. We are noticing declines in APS in those grades as well. We had lower pre-k numbers last year as well and they are now back to being filled. I think it is a depressed year numbers wise because of COVID lockdowns.

It is not going to rebound.

Look at the birth stats for the country.