Predicted Enrollment Decline in FCPS Materializes

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:2025 had some of the highest graduating classes across the nation (boom year from kids born in 2007) - LBSS alone had one of their biggest graduating classes and presumably other high schools did too.
So, yeah, enrollment is down b/c a ton of seniors are gone now.
So the statistics might not be as dramatic as you think.

There were more juniors than seniors in FCPS last year, so even if there are some 12th grade dropouts this year the numbers aren't obviously consistent with your hypothesis.

It's less about last year's class of seniors being abnormally large than the gradual dropoff in enrollments across grades.

So if you graduate 15000 seniors but now have another smaller group of K and 1st grade students the numbers are going to keep declining (and then you have DOGE/ICE impact on top of that).

What's obvious either way is that FCPS doesn't plan sensibly to address these trends. It will be business as usual until they suddenly de-staff teachers and close schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:2025 had some of the highest graduating classes across the nation (boom year from kids born in 2007) - LBSS alone had one of their biggest graduating classes and presumably other high schools did too.
So, yeah, enrollment is down b/c a ton of seniors are gone now.
So the statistics might not be as dramatic as you think.

There were more juniors than seniors in FCPS last year, so even if there are some 12th grade dropouts this year the numbers aren't obviously consistent with your hypothesis.

The demographic drop off is coming for all of us. This area was not hit quite as hard by the recession and perhaps didn’t see birth rates fall as much during the late 2000s/early 2010s. But there will still be fewer and fewer students over time. Colleges and universities are starting to close as well.

U.S. colleges face enrollment drop, fewer high school seniors

https://www.npr.org/2025/01/08/nx-s1-5246200/demographic-cliff-fewer-college-students-mean-fewer-graduates

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The current Kindergarten and 1st graders were born DURING covid. As in during the lock down part where people probably didn’t want to get pregnant. We are noticing declines in APS in those grades as well. We had lower pre-k numbers last year as well and they are now back to being filled. I think it is a depressed year numbers wise because of COVID lockdowns.

Current K were born during or just right before COVID, but they were planned/conceived well before it. Same with current 1st. The current preschoolers going to K next school year or the year after were the ones conceived and born during and right after Covid.

We’ll see ups and downs in class sizes. But the overall trend is toward fewer and fewer K-12 age children.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My guess is that this is from layoffs as well as immigration enforcement activities in Northern Virginia. The area is getting hit hard from multiple angles.

I was at my family’s house in OH recently and there was a news report on declining enrollment numbers in Columbus by 11%, they linked it to several reasons including reduced birth rates.

Of course they did. MAGAs don’t want to own up to the fact that throwing immigrants out will have an impact. Easier to blame it on something else.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:2025 had some of the highest graduating classes across the nation (boom year from kids born in 2007) - LBSS alone had one of their biggest graduating classes and presumably other high schools did too.
So, yeah, enrollment is down b/c a ton of seniors are gone now.
So the statistics might not be as dramatic as you think.

There were more juniors than seniors in FCPS last year, so even if there are some 12th grade dropouts this year the numbers aren't obviously consistent with your hypothesis.

It's less about last year's class of seniors being abnormally large than the gradual dropoff in enrollments across grades.

So if you graduate 15000 seniors but now have another smaller group of K and 1st grade students the numbers are going to keep declining (and then you have DOGE/ICE impact on top of that).

What's obvious either way is that FCPS doesn't plan sensibly to address these trends. It will be business as usual until they suddenly de-staff teachers and close schools.

De-staffing already happens, every year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where do we suspected the decline is coming from? I know at our ES, K and 1st grades are much smaller than typical. I'm not sure though if that's random chance or county wide.

The enrollment really drops off starting with 5th grade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm wondering if this will cause destaffs at FCPS schools...I think the enrollment date for that is late September some time? Will staff be moved around this far into the school year? (The MS where I work is hovering right around the magial 1,000 students mark so some of us have remained worried.)

At least 2 WSHS zoned elementary schools had to destaff teachers this year due to decreasing enrollment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My guess is that this is from layoffs as well as immigration enforcement activities in Northern Virginia. The area is getting hit hard from multiple angles.

In addition to declining birth rates....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:2025 had some of the highest graduating classes across the nation (boom year from kids born in 2007) - LBSS alone had one of their biggest graduating classes and presumably other high schools did too.
So, yeah, enrollment is down b/c a ton of seniors are gone now.
So the statistics might not be as dramatic as you think.

There were more juniors than seniors in FCPS last year, so even if there are some 12th grade dropouts this year the numbers aren't obviously consistent with your hypothesis.

It's less about last year's class of seniors being abnormally large than the gradual dropoff in enrollments across grades.

So if you graduate 15000 seniors but now have another smaller group of K and 1st grade students the numbers are going to keep declining (and then you have DOGE/ICE impact on top of that).

What's obvious either way is that FCPS doesn't plan sensibly to address these trends. It will be business as usual until they suddenly de-staff teachers and close schools.

De-staffing already happens, every year.

If they waste money on a new western high school when enrollments are declining, expect more de-staffing and for someone else’s schools to get closed on short notice.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My guess is that this is from layoffs as well as immigration enforcement activities in Northern Virginia. The area is getting hit hard from multiple angles.

They wouldn't have this data yet. Those things have happened in the last three months. The data they are using is probably YE 2024.

Greater impacts are probably the reduction in the number of children a family has and the move to private schools during COVID.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:2025 had some of the highest graduating classes across the nation (boom year from kids born in 2007) - LBSS alone had one of their biggest graduating classes and presumably other high schools did too.
So, yeah, enrollment is down b/c a ton of seniors are gone now.
So the statistics might not be as dramatic as you think.

There were more juniors than seniors in FCPS last year, so even if there are some 12th grade dropouts this year the numbers aren't obviously consistent with your hypothesis.

It's less about last year's class of seniors being abnormally large than the gradual dropoff in enrollments across grades.

So if you graduate 15000 seniors but now have another smaller group of K and 1st grade students the numbers are going to keep declining (and then you have DOGE/ICE impact on top of that).

What's obvious either way is that FCPS doesn't plan sensibly to address these trends. It will be business as usual until they suddenly de-staff teachers and close schools.

De-staffing already happens, every year.

If they waste money on a new western high school when enrollments are declining, expect more de-staffing and for someone else’s schools to get closed on short notice.

Maybe, wait and see what the high schools look like first. My neighborhood seems to have more young children and there is new construction in the western area. Lots of it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My guess is that this is from layoffs as well as immigration enforcement activities in Northern Virginia. The area is getting hit hard from multiple angles.

I was at my family’s house in OH recently and there was a news report on declining enrollment numbers in Columbus by 11%, they linked it to several reasons including reduced birth rates.

Of course they did. MAGAs don’t want to own up to the fact that throwing immigrants out will have an impact. Easier to blame it on something else.

So you are upset we won't have to educate children from other countries with our taxes?

[Anonymous]

If it's immigrants isn't that a good thing meaning less social services to fund

[Anonymous]

This is a good thing. Yes we will get less funding, but there are less kids to instruct. The class sizes were too big anyway. Hopefully there are corresponding drops in cost for special services as well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My guess is that this is from layoffs as well as immigration enforcement activities in Northern Virginia. The area is getting hit hard from multiple angles.

I was at my family’s house in OH recently and there was a news report on declining enrollment numbers in Columbus by 11%, they linked it to several reasons including reduced birth rates.

Of course they did. MAGAs don’t want to own up to the fact that throwing immigrants out will have an impact. Easier to blame it on something else.

So you are upset we won't have to educate children from other countries with our taxes?

Exactly. They are illegal immigrants not paying taxes to fund our schools. These students increase class size, often don’t speak English, and take resources from students with parents paying taxes.