Private school enrollment across DMV
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Anonymous
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What has happened is that the overall pool of private school students has expanded post-Covid and this has added to the number of schools that a very stable at this point. There is a very stable market now for the suburban privates like SSSAS, Bullis, SAES, Flint Hill, SJC, Holy Child, etc. that might have been vulnerable a generation ago to a downturn, but now feel very solid, particularly at the high school level.
The ones where it less clear are the more speciality schools and those that are located outside the wealthier areas. So overall the numbers and market has expanded but this trend doesn’t sweep up every school. |
Anonymous
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On the one hand, the US birth rate clearly is dropping.
On the other hand, a lot of people became disillusioned about their public during COVID because parents could see how curricula have been watered down over the past 20-25 years. This caused demand for private schooling to increase. It is not clear to me what the net result is of these 2 opposing trends. |
Anonymous
If this is the school I think it is, I completely get why you wouldn’t want to name it. Just know that the head of school has a long history of telling families—and staff—that things are the way they are “everywhere” to try to prevent them from comparing notes with other schools and learning the truth. It’s all smoke and mirrors. |
Anonymous
For what it's worth, my kids are at a small religious school in VA that is doing quite well, enrollment-wise. Partially I suspect this is because its niche is en vogue. |
Anonymous
You didn’t want an education for your kids ? Indoctrination more important that’s sucky parenting |
Anonymous
+1. I don’t think it’s a bad thing if these small, not-very-regulated schools close |
Anonymous
| The COVID effect is probably going to last at least a decade. There are a lot of families, like mine, who pulled our kids from public at the start of COVID when our kids were in elementary and middle school who stuck with private through high school and were happy to do so. Those that opted for private for their kindergarteners who would have otherwise gone public are still in it from the COVID effect so I suspect even with the birth rate decline the schools around here will have a few more years of runway. I'd be preparing for the next few years if I were a private school, though, making sure I could weather a downturn around 2030. |
Anonymous
It’s an interesting conversation but it feels like a lot of speculation. Hard numbers are missing for applications, acceptances, and yield. Several factors can be at play for each individual school and for the region as a whole. And the Covid effect and birthrate might have very different consequences, depending on the grades served. |
Anonymous
I am the trustee PP. There are actually a lot of hard numbers compiled by various accreditation bodies that Boards and Heads and admissions professionals have access to. I think it’s accurate that 2030 is a reckoning point, if not before, depending on geography. At my school, we are seeing the Covid families start to depart as their kids hit natural inflection points (6th, 8th) and we are seeing far less loyalty than a private school would expect in the past. It used to be that families were willing to ride out a rough year socially or academically because they were focused on the long-term school community. Now, parents will pull a kid mid-year or after just 1-2 years if they have a teacher they don’t click with or something else that used to be considered uncomfortable but minor. Covid caused so much disruption that some parents never want disruption again, but many others are like “eh, they survived a few changes already, they can handle this one.” |
Anonymous
Our school requires everyone buy tuition insurance, though that doesnt' cover all possibilities. Something tells me the "maga dummies" are not applying to the top privates around here anyway. |
Anonymous
So you don’t believe in a variety of choices for different families. |
Anonymous
| Our school has grown each year. We're outside the beltway - overcrowding and redistricting have a lot of parents anxious. |
Anonymous
Regulation does not correlate to a good education. Take a look at the public schools. They've got more regulations than they know what to do with and the kids can't read. |
Anonymous
So you would have the accreditation process for schools be non-existent? |
Anonymous
Are you saying you know the “smaller religious school in VA” is not accredited? |