Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:your at a DCI feeder? the possibility that DCI might not long-term have spaces for everyone is not so great but the lottery strategy is still pretty simple. lottery for Latins in 5th and if you get a space think hard about it. but spaces at Latin are few. so for most people its still lottery for DCI for 6th and plan to also list some backups.

FYI, we are at a feeder for DCI and did not even lottery for Latin at all. We wanted DCI and chances were good to get in. We got in for the fall. I’m sure we are not the only one in this scenario.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This year was harder for both 5th and 6th than last year which was harder than the year before. There is a trend. I think near-term you will see more not less kids in the DC public school system. I also think the Basis waitlist number is not misleading. There is lots of mid-summer movement on that particular waitlist - and if you are happy with Basis and willing to reenroll for 5th while waiting on that particular waitlist you will probably get in. But if you dont have a clearly Basis kid, my prediction is some uptick in middle school kids at John Francis and probably all 3 of the Hill area DCPS schools.

For 5th, BASIS, Latin, and ITDS % offered was pretty consistent from SY22-23 through SY24-25. Though Cooper was much more competitive last year than in its first two years (44% and 42% offered).

For 6th, it's more of a mix. Capital City, DCI Spanish, ITDS, Stuart-Hobson significantly more competitive. DCI French, Eliot-Hine somewhat more competitive. DCI Chinese, EL Haynes, Friendship Blow-Pierce, Hardy, Wells, Jefferson, KIPP Key, Sojourner Truth about the same or unclear. Capitol Hill Montessori, DC Prep Edgewood, significantly less competitive.

[Anonymous]

Cooper now is admitting a lot of siblings... I think that would explain the different rate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The one thing I would add to this excellent analysis (thanks OP!) is the rates for feeder schools for 5th grade.

For the sixth grade lottery, you’re really taking a risk - you could get completely shut out.

However, there are feeder schools to Stuart-Hobson, Jefferson, Eliot-Hine, and John-Francis that completely clear their waitlists for fifth.

Not ideal to hop to a feeder just for one year, but infinitely better than waiting to try your luck again in sixth, striking out, and being stuck at your inbound, low performing middle school (like CHEC) for middle school.

The number of 5th grade seats an elementary school offers in any given year is really volatile. Of the schools listed above, Thomson is the only feeder that cleared its 5th grade waitlist in SY22-23, SY23-24, and SY24-25.

It's a solid strategy but it's still not a sure bet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Cooper now is admitting a lot of siblings... I think that would explain the different rate.

It changes who is admitted, but not how many students applied/accepted offered seats. Though I guess you're more likely to apply and accept a seat if you already have a sibling enrolled. Looking at the growth in waitlist length on results day, I think the bigger factor here is increased interest over time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Cooper now is admitting a lot of siblings... I think that would explain the different rate.

It changes who is admitted, but not how many students applied/accepted offered seats. Though I guess you're more likely to apply and accept a seat if you already have a sibling enrolled. Looking at the growth in waitlist length on results day, I think the bigger factor here is increased interest over time.

I think Cooper will make far fewer offers now that they are moving to a new building. Everyone who got a spot at my charter took it and we are a DCI feeder.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This year was harder for both 5th and 6th than last year which was harder than the year before. There is a trend. I think near-term you will see more not less kids in the DC public school system. I also think the Basis waitlist number is not misleading. There is lots of mid-summer movement on that particular waitlist - and if you are happy with Basis and willing to reenroll for 5th while waiting on that particular waitlist you will probably get in. But if you dont have a clearly Basis kid, my prediction is some uptick in middle school kids at John Francis and probably all 3 of the Hill area DCPS schools.

For 5th, BASIS, Latin, and ITDS % offered was pretty consistent from SY22-23 through SY24-25. Though Cooper was much more competitive last year than in its first two years (44% and 42% offered).

For 6th, it's more of a mix. Capital City, DCI Spanish, ITDS, Stuart-Hobson significantly more competitive. DCI French, Eliot-Hine somewhat more competitive. DCI Chinese, EL Haynes, Friendship Blow-Pierce, Hardy, Wells, Jefferson, KIPP Key, Sojourner Truth about the same or unclear. Capitol Hill Montessori, DC Prep Edgewood, significantly less competitive.

Why is Capitol Hill Montessori less competitive?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This year was harder for both 5th and 6th than last year which was harder than the year before. There is a trend. I think near-term you will see more not less kids in the DC public school system. I also think the Basis waitlist number is not misleading. There is lots of mid-summer movement on that particular waitlist - and if you are happy with Basis and willing to reenroll for 5th while waiting on that particular waitlist you will probably get in. But if you dont have a clearly Basis kid, my prediction is some uptick in middle school kids at John Francis and probably all 3 of the Hill area DCPS schools.

For 5th, BASIS, Latin, and ITDS % offered was pretty consistent from SY22-23 through SY24-25. Though Cooper was much more competitive last year than in its first two years (44% and 42% offered).

For 6th, it's more of a mix. Capital City, DCI Spanish, ITDS, Stuart-Hobson significantly more competitive. DCI French, Eliot-Hine somewhat more competitive. DCI Chinese, EL Haynes, Friendship Blow-Pierce, Hardy, Wells, Jefferson, KIPP Key, Sojourner Truth about the same or unclear. Capitol Hill Montessori, DC Prep Edgewood, significantly less competitive.

Why is Capitol Hill Montessori less competitive?

No high school feeder. Low test scores.

[Anonymous]

We will never find a good school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This year was harder for both 5th and 6th than last year which was harder than the year before. There is a trend. I think near-term you will see more not less kids in the DC public school system. I also think the Basis waitlist number is not misleading. There is lots of mid-summer movement on that particular waitlist - and if you are happy with Basis and willing to reenroll for 5th while waiting on that particular waitlist you will probably get in. But if you dont have a clearly Basis kid, my prediction is some uptick in middle school kids at John Francis and probably all 3 of the Hill area DCPS schools.

For 5th, BASIS, Latin, and ITDS % offered was pretty consistent from SY22-23 through SY24-25. Though Cooper was much more competitive last year than in its first two years (44% and 42% offered).

For 6th, it's more of a mix. Capital City, DCI Spanish, ITDS, Stuart-Hobson significantly more competitive. DCI French, Eliot-Hine somewhat more competitive. DCI Chinese, EL Haynes, Friendship Blow-Pierce, Hardy, Wells, Jefferson, KIPP Key, Sojourner Truth about the same or unclear. Capitol Hill Montessori, DC Prep Edgewood, significantly less competitive.

What are the views on EL Haynes for MS?

[Anonymous]

Latin 2nd initial waitlist: 501, 429 last year, 343 2 years ago. Basis initial waitlist: 290 this year, 235 last year, and 188 2 years ago. I think thats trending more students/more difficult. Based on 5th grade results, 6th grade lottery next year at least looking like it might be somewhat more difficult than this year too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This year was harder for both 5th and 6th than last year which was harder than the year before. There is a trend. I think near-term you will see more not less kids in the DC public school system. I also think the Basis waitlist number is not misleading. There is lots of mid-summer movement on that particular waitlist - and if you are happy with Basis and willing to reenroll for 5th while waiting on that particular waitlist you will probably get in. But if you dont have a clearly Basis kid, my prediction is some uptick in middle school kids at John Francis and probably all 3 of the Hill area DCPS schools.

For 5th, BASIS, Latin, and ITDS % offered was pretty consistent from SY22-23 through SY24-25. Though Cooper was much more competitive last year than in its first two years (44% and 42% offered).

For 6th, it's more of a mix. Capital City, DCI Spanish, ITDS, Stuart-Hobson significantly more competitive. DCI French, Eliot-Hine somewhat more competitive. DCI Chinese, EL Haynes, Friendship Blow-Pierce, Hardy, Wells, Jefferson, KIPP Key, Sojourner Truth about the same or unclear. Capitol Hill Montessori, DC Prep Edgewood, significantly less competitive.

What are the views on EL Haynes for MS?

My view is that its ok. Not great. Same goes for the high school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Latin 2nd initial waitlist: 501, 429 last year, 343 2 years ago. Basis initial waitlist: 290 this year, 235 last year, and 188 2 years ago. I think thats trending more students/more difficult. Based on 5th grade results, 6th grade lottery next year at least looking like it might be somewhat more difficult than this year too.

More applicants, yes, but they've moved further through the waitlists as well, so the overall chances of getting in have been about the same.

BASIS matches + offers by October
SY22-23: 188
SY23-24: 225
SY24-25: 238

BASIS matches + waitlist length on results day
SY22-23: 290
SY23-24: 338
SY24-25: 375
SY25-26: 429


Latin matches + offers by October
SY22-23: 101
SY23-24: 86 (first year lower initial matches due to equitable access)
SY24-25: 111

Latin matches + waitlist length on results day
SY22-23: 418
SY23-24: 418
SY24-25: 504
SY25-26: 572

[Anonymous]

Thoughts on Truth?

[Anonymous]

Not a bad option for a kid who likes to work independently. Management seems very good. Crunchy parents, lots of kids with special needs, nurturing feel. The stronger academic kids often leave after 8th.