Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:These analyses are really interesting. Though if I were doing it, I'd run "chances" using the seats offered through June (or August at the latest). Families of rising middle schoolers with any mobility option aren't going to wait around hoping their number comes up at Basis in September or whatever. It's too risky.

I think some will, if they're happy enough with their elementary to stay for 5th. This was us-- re-lotteried for 6th while also doing some private applications and thinking through how we could move and where to. Ended up getting lucky at Cooper for 6th.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.

Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)

For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered

For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered

What about DCI spanish? Definately lower then French. Maybe single percentages?

I only included schools that made 20 or more total offers as a proxy for schools with a "true" entry year in either 5th or 6th.

In practice, the entry year for DCI Spanish is earlier, through the feeders. Last year 100% of feeder school students were offered a seat at DCI Spanish by October. Meanwhile, the non-feeder DCI Spanish lottery made a total of 3 offers, or 1% offered.

Thanks for the analysis’ above. Helpful to know. Basically no chance for DCI spanish if non-feeder.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.

Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)

For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered

For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered

What about DCI spanish? Definately lower then French. Maybe single percentages?

DCI Spanish barely got all the feeder kids in this year

All the feeder kids got in this year.

They said that they ran the numbers and all feeder kids will have spots at DCI for the next few years even with feeder school expansions. Maybe not all the feeder spanish kids will get the spanish track maybe in the future and might be in other language track which further decreases those numbers for non-feeders.

Thus DCI is the most competitive seat for non-feeders kids EOTP.

I am at a DCI feeder with a rising 5th grader and the message is that there could not be enough seats. This cohort of rising 5th graders is significantly larger than last year across all schools.

I’m the PP above. I was at the open house recently and above was what the principal said. So this was directly from DCI. Maybe not enough spanish seats for all spanish feeder kids and some might have to do other language tracks.

But priority is all feeder kids for all available seats.

The principal met with my feeder and said that they absolutely couldn’t promise all students would get seats and wouldn’t know until enrollment was final in October. If you look at enrollment data there were 361 students enrolled from the current 5th grade class that filled the 270 DCI seats. Some did not elect to enroll in DCI. There are 464 current 4th grade students in feeders. That’s a big difference.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.

Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)

For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered

For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered

What about DCI spanish? Definately lower then French. Maybe single percentages?

DCI Spanish barely got all the feeder kids in this year

All the feeder kids got in this year.

They said that they ran the numbers and all feeder kids will have spots at DCI for the next few years even with feeder school expansions. Maybe not all the feeder spanish kids will get the spanish track maybe in the future and might be in other language track which further decreases those numbers for non-feeders.

Thus DCI is the most competitive seat for non-feeders kids EOTP.

I am at a DCI feeder with a rising 5th grader and the message is that there could not be enough seats. This cohort of rising 5th graders is significantly larger than last year across all schools.

I’m the PP above. I was at the open house recently and above was what the principal said. So this was directly from DCI. Maybe not enough spanish seats for all spanish feeder kids and some might have to do other language tracks.

But priority is all feeder kids for all available seats.

The principal met with my feeder and said that they absolutely couldn’t promise all students would get seats and wouldn’t know until enrollment was final in October. If you look at enrollment data there were 361 students enrolled from the current 5th grade class that filled the 270 DCI seats. Some did not elect to enroll in DCI. There are 464 current 4th grade students in feeders. That’s a big difference.

It is-- this may definitely be the year not everyone gets in.

However, you have to consider that some will peel off in 5th for BASIS and Latin. Looking at last year's attrition from 4th to 5th would be instructive.

And I know a few who turned down DCI for ITDS and Deal.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.

Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)

For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered

For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered

What about DCI spanish? Definately lower then French. Maybe single percentages?

DCI Spanish barely got all the feeder kids in this year

All the feeder kids got in this year.

They said that they ran the numbers and all feeder kids will have spots at DCI for the next few years even with feeder school expansions. Maybe not all the feeder spanish kids will get the spanish track maybe in the future and might be in other language track which further decreases those numbers for non-feeders.

Thus DCI is the most competitive seat for non-feeders kids EOTP.

I am at a DCI feeder with a rising 5th grader and the message is that there could not be enough seats. This cohort of rising 5th graders is significantly larger than last year across all schools.

I’m the PP above. I was at the open house recently and above was what the principal said. So this was directly from DCI. Maybe not enough spanish seats for all spanish feeder kids and some might have to do other language tracks.

But priority is all feeder kids for all available seats.

The principal met with my feeder and said that they absolutely couldn’t promise all students would get seats and wouldn’t know until enrollment was final in October. If you look at enrollment data there were 361 students enrolled from the current 5th grade class that filled the 270 DCI seats. Some did not elect to enroll in DCI. There are 464 current 4th grade students in feeders. That’s a big difference.

It is-- this may definitely be the year not everyone gets in.

However, you have to consider that some will peel off in 5th for BASIS and Latin. Looking at last year's attrition from 4th to 5th would be instructive.

And I know a few who turned down DCI for ITDS and Deal.

361 is the number of students in feeders when they were in 4th. So looks like 91 students found another path for middle school. DCI did not have any lottery seats for non feeder kids in any language. If 100 kids have another option this year they are still significantly over. I would be worried if I was at MV or Stokes. They have much larger classes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.

Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)

For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered

For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered

What about DCI spanish? Definately lower then French. Maybe single percentages?

DCI Spanish barely got all the feeder kids in this year

All the feeder kids got in this year.

They said that they ran the numbers and all feeder kids will have spots at DCI for the next few years even with feeder school expansions. Maybe not all the feeder spanish kids will get the spanish track maybe in the future and might be in other language track which further decreases those numbers for non-feeders.

Thus DCI is the most competitive seat for non-feeders kids EOTP.

I am at a DCI feeder with a rising 5th grader and the message is that there could not be enough seats. This cohort of rising 5th graders is significantly larger than last year across all schools.

I’m the PP above. I was at the open house recently and above was what the principal said. So this was directly from DCI. Maybe not enough spanish seats for all spanish feeder kids and some might have to do other language tracks.

But priority is all feeder kids for all available seats.

The principal met with my feeder and said that they absolutely couldn’t promise all students would get seats and wouldn’t know until enrollment was final in October. If you look at enrollment data there were 361 students enrolled from the current 5th grade class that filled the 270 DCI seats. Some did not elect to enroll in DCI. There are 464 current 4th grade students in feeders. That’s a big difference.

It is-- this may definitely be the year not everyone gets in.

However, you have to consider that some will peel off in 5th for BASIS and Latin. Looking at last year's attrition from 4th to 5th would be instructive.

And I know a few who turned down DCI for ITDS and Deal.

361 is the number of students in feeders when they were in 4th. So looks like 91 students found another path for middle school. DCI did not have any lottery seats for non feeder kids in any language. If 100 kids have another option this year they are still significantly over. I would be worried if I was at MV or Stokes. They have much larger classes.

Everyone at MV got a seat at DCI this year even before the enrollment deadline. They did not even have to go on the waitlist. Don’t know about the other schools.

[Anonymous]

We are under 10 at Basis and have been told to not expect movement until August at earliest and to make other plans.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are under 10 at Basis and have been told to not expect movement until August at earliest and to make other plans.

I think you'll get a call earlier than that. Lots of families assessing the school now and will turn it down for not being the right fit by the deadline. We are there and know people who were like #90 and got a spot right before school started, so I think there is lots of movement before August.

[Anonymous]

The one thing I would add to this excellent analysis (thanks OP!) is the rates for feeder schools for 5th grade.

For the sixth grade lottery, you’re really taking a risk - you could get completely shut out.

However, there are feeder schools to Stuart-Hobson, Jefferson, Eliot-Hine, and John-Francis that completely clear their waitlists for fifth.

Not ideal to hop to a feeder just for one year, but infinitely better than waiting to try your luck again in sixth, striking out, and being stuck at your inbound, low performing middle school (like CHEC) for middle school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.

Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)

For 5th grade:
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered

For 6th grade:
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered

What about DCI spanish? Definately lower then French. Maybe single percentages?

DCI Spanish barely got all the feeder kids in this year

All the feeder kids got in this year.

They said that they ran the numbers and all feeder kids will have spots at DCI for the next few years even with feeder school expansions. Maybe not all the feeder spanish kids will get the spanish track maybe in the future and might be in other language track which further decreases those numbers for non-feeders.

Thus DCI is the most competitive seat for non-feeders kids EOTP.

I am at a DCI feeder with a rising 5th grader and the message is that there could not be enough seats. This cohort of rising 5th graders is significantly larger than last year across all schools.

I’m the PP above. I was at the open house recently and above was what the principal said. So this was directly from DCI. Maybe not enough spanish seats for all spanish feeder kids and some might have to do other language tracks.

But priority is all feeder kids for all available seats.

The principal met with my feeder and said that they absolutely couldn’t promise all students would get seats and wouldn’t know until enrollment was final in October. If you look at enrollment data there were 361 students enrolled from the current 5th grade class that filled the 270 DCI seats. Some did not elect to enroll in DCI. There are 464 current 4th grade students in feeders. That’s a big difference.

It is-- this may definitely be the year not everyone gets in.

However, you have to consider that some will peel off in 5th for BASIS and Latin. Looking at last year's attrition from 4th to 5th would be instructive.

And I know a few who turned down DCI for ITDS and Deal.

361 is the number of students in feeders when they were in 4th. So looks like 91 students found another path for middle school. DCI did not have any lottery seats for non feeder kids in any language. If 100 kids have another option this year they are still significantly over. I would be worried if I was at MV or Stokes. They have much larger classes.

Everyone at MV got a seat at DCI this year even before the enrollment deadline. They did not even have to go on the waitlist. Don’t know about the other schools.

But MV has a lot more students overall in 4th grade (41 according to enrollment data) and so do other feeders so there could potentially not be extra seats for MV.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are under 10 at Basis and have been told to not expect movement until August at earliest and to make other plans.

You will definitely get an offer by the summer

[Anonymous]

I know this has come up in other threads, but given how unusual this year is, in terms of federal cuts and their employment effects, I wonder whether whether WL movement overall will increase or decrease. I just don't have any sense for it and I wonder if the schools do yet and if we'll really even know until late summer as the cuts trickle through and families make choices. That said, I appreciate this analysis OP and will be interested in recreating it w/this year's data late in the year to see if this year is anomalous (and, if so, in which direction), or not.

[Anonymous]

This year was harder for both 5th and 6th than last year which was harder than the year before. There is a trend. I think near-term you will see more not less kids in the DC public school system. I also think the Basis waitlist number is not misleading. There is lots of mid-summer movement on that particular waitlist - and if you are happy with Basis and willing to reenroll for 5th while waiting on that particular waitlist you will probably get in. But if you dont have a clearly Basis kid, my prediction is some uptick in middle school kids at John Francis and probably all 3 of the Hill area DCPS schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I know this has come up in other threads, but given how unusual this year is, in terms of federal cuts and their employment effects, I wonder whether whether WL movement overall will increase or decrease. I just don't have any sense for it and I wonder if the schools do yet and if we'll really even know until late summer as the cuts trickle through and families make choices. That said, I appreciate this analysis OP and will be interested in recreating it w/this year's data late in the year to see if this year is anomalous (and, if so, in which direction), or not.

This is anecdotal but we don’t know of anyone moving in DC’s 4th grade class. Obviously that might change, but no one has plans to move and those that got into Latin are super happy. The rest are aiming for DCI next year.

[Anonymous]

your at a DCI feeder? the possibility that DCI might not long-term have spaces for everyone is not so great but the lottery strategy is still pretty simple. lottery for Latins in 5th and if you get a space think hard about it. but spaces at Latin are few. so for most people its still lottery for DCI for 6th and plan to also list some backups.