Is the missing middle fight over in Arlington?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lots of Arlington folks gonna be moving since they all just got fired from the DOJ/DOD/DHS

1. Not from north Arlington. You can’t afford to live there working at those places.
2. I highly doubt DOD is going to get rid of anyone. They might get bigger under Trump.
3. I actually saw a law firm was looking for DOJ cast offs on LinkedIn.

No really, housing in N Arlington was pretty affordable (all things considered) prior to 2020, and even after that, between 2020 and 2022 (before interest rates went up) it was not that bad (PITI on a 2.5% mortgage is not bad, on a 6.5% rate on the other hand, pretty bad). One could have bought a pretty decent SFH for 1.25m-1.5m before 2020 or sometime in 2020/2021, and the PITI on that would have only been around 6k (if 1.5m house and 20%). A dual income fed could easily afford that (6k aint much mall things considered). Even less if 1.25m (5k/mo PITI if 20% down). Lets say dual income feds take all in around 300k, that's net what, 225k? Dont know how their pension works but lets assume it similar to 401k and they contribute max, for simplicity 25*2, so after that they still have 175k left or around 14k/mo.

For all this stuff about housing being unaffordable, frankly it used to be quite affordable until 2022 (when mortgage rates started creeping up).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Does anyone in Arlington even care about this issue anymore?

Idk if we care but it's a factor for if we buy our move-up house in N Arlington or McLean (currently in 22203 where I have zero issue with density / MM - but I'd feel differently if we paid $3M in CC Hills). So we're watching it but won't get actively involved in any advocacy if that picks back up.

I can’t imagine any developer in their right mind bothering with this now after it has been reversed and stopped so many times at this point. I also don’t see the appeal for buyers to rent a one bedroom apartment in some place like CC Hill with no walkability or amenities or to buy a townhouse for more money than a townhouse in somewhere like Lyon village. Add to that the uncertainty in the tariff situation and it’s pretty much DOA.

I agree most developers have probably lost interest. But I get tired of the argument that there’s no appeal for multifamily housing in CC hill. Not all buyers are young couples or young professionals - what about the older NIMBYs in CC hill who no longer need 3 levels and 5000 square feet; single people who can’t afford a house but want a quiet neighborhood and easy commute to NW DC; or divorced couples who want to stay close by. Arlington isn’t only for 27-40 something family units

People might not want their 5000 sq ft houses but the alternatives suck. Townhouses and duplexes could be OK, but why would those folks sell their $2.2 million mansion just so they could buy a $1.8 million duplex or townhouse, especially when the neighbor could turn out to be a nightmare? I get that builders want to maximize profits, but the pricing of MM housing really does limit their appeal. And the quadplexes and hexaplexes are even worse -- the noise transmission between low rise apartments like those is awful, and those will be rentals anyways.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lots of Arlington folks gonna be moving since they all just got fired from the DOJ/DOD/DHS

1. Not from north Arlington. You can’t afford to live there working at those places.
2. I highly doubt DOD is going to get rid of anyone. They might get bigger under Trump.
3. I actually saw a law firm was looking for DOJ cast offs on LinkedIn.

No really, housing in N Arlington was pretty affordable (all things considered) prior to 2020, and even after that, between 2020 and 2022 (before interest rates went up) it was not that bad (PITI on a 2.5% mortgage is not bad, on a 6.5% rate on the other hand, pretty bad). One could have bought a pretty decent SFH for 1.25m-1.5m before 2020 or sometime in 2020/2021, and the PITI on that would have only been around 6k (if 1.5m house and 20%). A dual income fed could easily afford that (6k aint much mall things considered). Even less if 1.25m (5k/mo PITI if 20% down). Lets say dual income feds take all in around 300k, that's net what, 225k? Dont know how their pension works but lets assume it similar to 401k and they contribute max, for simplicity 25*2, so after that they still have 175k left or around 14k/mo.

For all this stuff about housing being unaffordable, frankly it used to be quite affordable until 2022 (when mortgage rates started creeping up).

I’d be surprised if even with 2.5% rates people making $300K bought $1.5M houses. We’re at $600K HHI and $6K/mo PITI ($785K @ 7%) and I can’t wait to refinance if rates go down. But maybe that just supports your point about how much rates impacted affordability 2022-onward haha!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lots of Arlington folks gonna be moving since they all just got fired from the DOJ/DOD/DHS

1. Not from north Arlington. You can’t afford to live there working at those places.
2. I highly doubt DOD is going to get rid of anyone. They might get bigger under Trump.
3. I actually saw a law firm was looking for DOJ cast offs on LinkedIn.

No really, housing in N Arlington was pretty affordable (all things considered) prior to 2020, and even after that, between 2020 and 2022 (before interest rates went up) it was not that bad (PITI on a 2.5% mortgage is not bad, on a 6.5% rate on the other hand, pretty bad). One could have bought a pretty decent SFH for 1.25m-1.5m before 2020 or sometime in 2020/2021, and the PITI on that would have only been around 6k (if 1.5m house and 20%). A dual income fed could easily afford that (6k aint much mall things considered). Even less if 1.25m (5k/mo PITI if 20% down). Lets say dual income feds take all in around 300k, that's net what, 225k? Dont know how their pension works but lets assume it similar to 401k and they contribute max, for simplicity 25*2, so after that they still have 175k left or around 14k/mo.

For all this stuff about housing being unaffordable, frankly it used to be quite affordable until 2022 (when mortgage rates started creeping up).

I’d be surprised if even with 2.5% rates people making $300K bought $1.5M houses. We’re at $600K HHI and $6K/mo PITI ($785K @ 7%) and I can’t wait to refinance if rates go down. But maybe that just supports your point about how much rates impacted affordability 2022-onward haha!

Yeah the rate makes a massive difference to what is affordable (as at least per the very rough math I did). At 2.5% or hell even 4% pre pandemic, places were fairly affordable in my view (prices had also not gone up much).

But today at the current rate, it's quite tough. We couldn't take advantage of the low rates (still young ish, ie just under 30, not yet married and we didn't want to buy before that and frankly were not even thinking about housing). We currently have a HHI of almost 400k but just as you have a PITI of around 6k at 7% for a 925k house (and we went, I think, conservative enough on our payments). For the same PITI we could have afforded a lot more and a lot nicer house a few years ago. Alas, it is what it is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lots of Arlington folks gonna be moving since they all just got fired from the DOJ/DOD/DHS

1. Not from north Arlington. You can’t afford to live there working at those places.
2. I highly doubt DOD is going to get rid of anyone. They might get bigger under Trump.
3. I actually saw a law firm was looking for DOJ cast offs on LinkedIn.

No really, housing in N Arlington was pretty affordable (all things considered) prior to 2020, and even after that, between 2020 and 2022 (before interest rates went up) it was not that bad (PITI on a 2.5% mortgage is not bad, on a 6.5% rate on the other hand, pretty bad). One could have bought a pretty decent SFH for 1.25m-1.5m before 2020 or sometime in 2020/2021, and the PITI on that would have only been around 6k (if 1.5m house and 20%). A dual income fed could easily afford that (6k aint much mall things considered). Even less if 1.25m (5k/mo PITI if 20% down). Lets say dual income feds take all in around 300k, that's net what, 225k? Dont know how their pension works but lets assume it similar to 401k and they contribute max, for simplicity 25*2, so after that they still have 175k left or around 14k/mo.

For all this stuff about housing being unaffordable, frankly it used to be quite affordable until 2022 (when mortgage rates started creeping up).

I’d be surprised if even with 2.5% rates people making $300K bought $1.5M houses. We’re at $600K HHI and $6K/mo PITI ($785K @ 7%) and I can’t wait to refinance if rates go down. But maybe that just supports your point about how much rates impacted affordability 2022-onward haha!

Yeah the rate makes a massive difference to what is affordable (as at least per the very rough math I did). At 2.5% or hell even 4% pre pandemic, places were fairly affordable in my view (prices had also not gone up much).

But today at the current rate, it's quite tough. We couldn't take advantage of the low rates (still young ish, ie just under 30, not yet married and we didn't want to buy before that and frankly were not even thinking about housing). We currently have a HHI of almost 400k but just as you have a PITI of around 6k at 7% for a 925k house (and we went, I think, conservative enough on our payments). For the same PITI we could have afforded a lot more and a lot nicer house a few years ago. Alas, it is what it is.

I’m the PP you quoted and yeah, this resonates. Early 30s now and kick ourselves for not buying earlier during low interest rates but to your point we also weren’t even thinking about it at the time due to age / life stage etc.