If “looking for a large club” then these are not the teams I would be considering at all. |
This is not scientific at all, as I only know the NCAP-Burke swimmers and the Makos girl swimmers with or against whom we have swum in summer (I do data, so I’m familiar with the kids, but I don’t know the Makos boys off hand). When you look at SwimIO for their names, it seems the poster’s statement that 6 swimmers “will have at least one AAAA time” by next Fall is reasonable. I didn’t narrow my search to right now, instead looking at historical data (which allowed me to look at 12 year old times for those who just turned 13). From my quick glance, NCAP-Burke has a swimmer who will move up by next Fall, but currently has 1 AAAA time, along with two younger 13 yo swimmers who achieved AAAA times two months ago, but then turned 13, plus three swimmers who are 12 but will be 13 next Fall and have close-to AAAA times right now. Makos girls (I don’t know the boys) are very very strong. Two Makos girls are newly 13 and have (or had at age 12) 9 and 6 AAA times respectively. It is reasonable that these two girls will easily achieve AAAA or better by age 14. Five other 13-14 Makos girls have or had multiple AAA times either at age 12 or at age 14. Seems to me you just need to see what works best for you. |
| When we were looking between clubs, I messaged a few mamas whose kids had swum with both clubs (believe it or not, there are several families with kids split between Makos and NCAP-Burke, and many that switched from one to the other). That really helped me think about the best place for our swimmers. |
| OP, the one that has openings. |
I would say for a 400 person club Mako has a lot of high performing swimmers. Pound for pound more than other clubs. That shows that they are taking swimmers and getting them to that level - good coaching. Whereas a lot of the NCAP performers, were already proven swimmers that jumped. You also see NCAP swimmers bounce a lot back and forth, more than other clubs - almost like they need a break from that club. |
I am not the myswimio guy, I swear, but that site is really good for stuff like this and I love messing around with numbers and stats, so I went down the rabbit hole on this. You can look at myswimio for Makos in general to see which current 13-14 and 15-16 swimmers have AAA/AAAA times and whether they are new to an age group or not. Makos best 13 year old girls are not new 13s (I only looked at the 13s with current A times or better), all of them were 13 at the first meets of this season and all but 1 of them turn 14 either right before or shortly after JOs. But yes, if the OPs swimmer is a girl, that is an extremely strong cohort assuming the top 13-14s all train together. You can also search by NCAP overall, and that’s a little harder to figure out unless you know who the kids are at a particular site because they don’t have site identifiers (which, if you’re reading my swimio guy, if you are able to group all of NCAP as a whole but still have the site identifiers that would be cool). But there are only 6 girls and 3 boys in the 11-12 group currently who have AAAA times and none of them are from Burke. I’m familiar more with who the Burke girls are, and they did not have any girl that started this season at 12 and hit a AAAA before turning 13. There is 1 boy (there may be more but I know of the 1) and 1 girl from Burke who currently have a decent chance at hitting a AAAA at 12 before aging up to 13 for next season. I’m not saying these kids aren’t incredibly talented but based on the stats it’s a bit of a reach to say that there will be 6 kids in Burke’s Silver 1 group next year (so not including the swimmers currently in the group who will not be there next year) who will have achieved a AAAA as either an 11-12 or 13-14. |
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Sizes of the locations:
Makos - approx 650, all at GMU (overflow at STJ? Or was that just during COVID?) NCAP-Burke - approx 175 (max 200); but the Level 1 practice groups (Bronze, Silver, Gold) are intentionally very small (total, NCAP has approx 2520) Machine - hard to know across the locations, approx 1610 total Marlins - hard to know across the seven locations, approx 850 total https://swimmerstats.com/teams.php |
Point of clarification: There are 13 year olds who will stay in Silver I next year, and there are 12 year olds who will move up to Silver I next year. Not all Silver I swimmers move up next year because many will only be 14 next year. This is why OP needs to arrange time at each club/site with the appropriate coach. We can’t possibly know the number of openings and expected movement even within our own kid’s club. |
| Swim parent of a D3 and D1 swimmers, I live in MoCo and we were RMSC, try several teams and go with the best fit for your kid and and schedule. There have been decent/gooe swimmers from many clubs, although NCAP probably has the most kids that swim in college. Remember, as a non revenue sport, it is highly unlikely that a male swimmer will ever get athletic scholarships to swim. |
| Decent/good- oops |
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“Ncap Burke practice facility is old, dated, and not nice.”
So true! But my kid isn’t swimming there in order to use the old treadmills or tiny weight room. And here’s something to consider—I find the tiny NCAP Burke facility to have a much safer vibe for my young teen daughter. My girls have swam at rec centers and the St James and I can’t stand the crowds of loitering randos that pop up there. If I’m running late for a pick up my daughter can wait in the tiny ugly lobby at Burke and not be approached by chatty adult men. The front desk staff is right there. Also no obvious spots for sexual assaulters to lurk. Sorry to take it down a dark path, but it is a big redeeming quality of the old facility in my mind. And the important part—the coaches are good and my kid has friends there. |
+100!!! |
Isn't that literally the facility where the abuse happened that prompted the name change from Curle-Burke? |
yes |
| In typical fashion, this thread has been hijacked. OP, it sounds like you’ve made an intentional choice not to pursue NCAP, whose various sites comprise many of the top 13-14 swimmers in PVS. For a 13-yo female swimmer, the data suggests that Makos would provide a stronger training cohort than Marlins. They have a solid number of comparable 13-14 girls to your swimmer. For a boy that age, I’d consider looking at York. SwimCloud would suggest that neither Makos nor Marlins would have much of a training cohort (it’s there, but smaller). York might provide the cohort and culture you’re seeking. (I’m not affiliated with York personally.) As others have said, location is critical in this area, as traffic is uniquely terrible. Good luck to your swimmer! |