Hurricane Idalia—Make it make sense

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

Thank you for taking the time to write this explanation. I’ve never lived anywhere prone to hurricanes, so this definitely gave me a better understanding.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

Because the phrasing doesn't matter. She doesn't want to evacuate. So she'll tell herself whatever she needs to to justify it. Logic isn't part of it (not really).

I hope it works out for her!

It will 98 times out of 100.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

Thank you for taking the time to write this explanation. I’ve never lived anywhere prone to hurricanes, so this definitely gave me a better understanding.

+1 I found this very educational!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I live in a hurricane-prone area. I live on a small island. I have never evacuated before despite whatever orders exist, and don't plan to unless a category 5 is coming directly at me.

As a PP explained before, living with this type of risk is just part of the cost of living in a place like this. With Hurricane Ian last year, the direction of the rainfall made nearly every house on my street suffer minor water damage. The key was it was minor because we were all home to deal with it quickly.

Living with hurricanes at this time of year is just what we do. 90% of the time our choices work out fine.

That's better than the 83% success rate of Russian Roulette.

What about the other 10%?

[Anonymous]

I live in Tampa Bay also. Not in a flood zone, but if I was? And I was told to evacuate, I would. This is going to be a water storm, not so much the winds and things like that but the storm surge! It's no joke.

I chose to live inland and I don't have to worry about storm surge, but if you choose to live on the coast then this is the price you pay. You should make good decisions, I would not be staying in the evacuation zone A right now, especially with small children depending on me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I live in a hurricane-prone area. I live on a small island. I have never evacuated before despite whatever orders exist, and don't plan to unless a category 5 is coming directly at me.

As a PP explained before, living with this type of risk is just part of the cost of living in a place like this. With Hurricane Ian last year, the direction of the rainfall made nearly every house on my street suffer minor water damage. The key was it was minor because we were all home to deal with it quickly.

Living with hurricanes at this time of year is just what we do. 90% of the time our choices work out fine.

That's better than the 83% success rate of Russian Roulette.

What about the other 10%?

You and your kids get evacuated by the coast guard and then police and CPS decide what to do about your negligence.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I live in Tampa Bay also. Not in a flood zone, but if I was? And I was told to evacuate, I would. This is going to be a water storm, not so much the winds and things like that but the storm surge! It's no joke.

I chose to live inland and I don't have to worry about storm surge, but if you choose to live on the coast then this is the price you pay. You should make good decisions, I would not be staying in the evacuation zone A right now, especially with small children depending on me.

How is South Tampa doing?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I live in Tampa Bay also. Not in a flood zone, but if I was? And I was told to evacuate, I would. This is going to be a water storm, not so much the winds and things like that but the storm surge! It's no joke.

I chose to live inland and I don't have to worry about storm surge, but if you choose to live on the coast then this is the price you pay. You should make good decisions, I would not be staying in the evacuation zone A right now, especially with small children depending on me.

How is South Tampa doing?

I'm not sure, I actually live in the northern part of Tampa bay. I mean I know Hillsborough county has issued mandatory evacuations for zone a. The storm does seem to be moving north, but already as of the last hour there was water up over the beach roads in Hernando county.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

Yeah, she lives on the Intracoastal and has four kids and an infant. Do you still feel the same?

The Intracoastal isn't really in Tampa? I'm not sure where your friend is, or what her house is like - and I certainly don't know enough about her situation to second guess her own judgment. But you do, it sounds like! I'm sure she appreciates your "concern" about her and her family.

She’s in Belleair. I didn’t realize there were so many FL residents here when I spoke so generally.

Belleair is beautiful!!

[Anonymous]

It really is true about evac - unless you are flying away - driving is kinda not that effective. You have to relo pretty far away to miss the devastation if you had to evac in the first place. I have friends down in the Keys and they don't just evac, they fly and holiday for a few days way ahead of any major storm that's tracking their way. The trick is to get out way early and far. Otherwise, you're still going to be in a mess.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

Thank you for taking the time to write this explanation. I’ve never lived anywhere prone to hurricanes, so this definitely gave me a better understanding.

+1 I found this very educational!

+2

— a girl from Kansas who knows a lot about tornadoes and hail

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

Thank you for taking the time to write this explanation. I’ve never lived anywhere prone to hurricanes, so this definitely gave me a better understanding.

+1 I found this very educational!

+2

— a girl from Kansas who knows a lot about tornadoes and hail

I'm the one who wrote that treatise and thank you - I'm glad it was helpful! I would love to understand living with tornadoes better because I find them TERRIFYING in (what seems to me) their unpredictability. Should I start a new thread for questions - such as, how much are you always thinking about the possibility of a tornado coming through? How do you prepare for the possibility??

Also, OP, with so much wood knocked - it looks like Tampa Bay is going to come out of this all right

I dont know what's going on where your friend is - but here in St Pete we're starting to feel a little better about how this is looking. We won't really know till we know, but - this is better than what we were worried about. I hope your friend is going to be fine - and her house, too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It really is true about evac - unless you are flying away - driving is kinda not that effective. You have to relo pretty far away to miss the devastation if you had to evac in the first place. I have friends down in the Keys and they don't just evac, they fly and holiday for a few days way ahead of any major storm that's tracking their way. The trick is to get out way early and far. Otherwise, you're still going to be in a mess.

That's not true. You really only need to come a few miles inland to be safe. Authorities have been saying that over and over again. There are many shelters, typically in schools, where I am there are shelters for people with special needs and even pet friendly shelters. And free rides if needed.

[Anonymous]

When we first moved to Florida we evacuated every time there was a storm warning now five years later we stay put. The reason why is that when we did try to out run the storm, we kept having to drive and drive and drive because i the storm track keeps moving and eventually one time we went all the way to North Carolina to try and avoid it and that eventually got a tropical storm at our air bnb up there so we might as well have stayed. Also, we now live in a house that is a New Build so completely up to the most modern codes. It is not likely to lose a roof or get flooded even if it winds up being a category three or four storm. Now, we probably would try to evacuate if it’s a CAT5 but that’s not looking likely it for this one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:When we first moved to Florida we evacuated every time there was a storm warning now five years later we stay put. The reason why is that when we did try to out run the storm, we kept having to drive and drive and drive because i the storm track keeps moving and eventually one time we went all the way to North Carolina to try and avoid it and that eventually got a tropical storm at our air bnb up there so we might as well have stayed. Also, we now live in a house that is a New Build so completely up to the most modern codes. It is not likely to lose a roof or get flooded even if it winds up being a category three or four storm. Now, we probably would try to evacuate if it’s a CAT5 but that’s not looking likely it for this one.

Also I forgot to mention that the drive back down the peninsula from wherever you drive to is a nightmare - all that traffic from south Florida on 95 or 75 for hours and hours. Evacuating could mean missing a week or so of work and if you stay it could be just 1-2 days out. People have to calculate that as well.