Hurricane Idalia—Make it make sense

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

Yeah, she lives on the Intracoastal and has four kids and an infant. Do you still feel the same?

It’s like you didn’t read pp’s post at all.

I did. Did you?

I DO know she’s in a mandatory evacuation zone, she said as much herself.

She IS on water.

Per PP: “For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach ”

[Anonymous]

I live in a hurricane-prone area. I live on a small island. I have never evacuated before despite whatever orders exist, and don't plan to unless a category 5 is coming directly at me.

As a PP explained before, living with this type of risk is just part of the cost of living in a place like this. With Hurricane Ian last year, the direction of the rainfall made nearly every house on my street suffer minor water damage. The key was it was minor because we were all home to deal with it quickly.

Living with hurricanes at this time of year is just what we do. 90% of the time our choices work out fine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

+1. We’re just south of Tampa. Just some things to add:

The evacuation zones aren’t by area, they are by sea level. Lowest sea levels evacuate first. We live on the only hill in Florida (lol) and we are in the last evac zone while our neighbors across the street are in the first. You have no idea what zone she’s in, and most of Tampa has not been ordered to evac.

If her house is newer, it will be built up on stilts and likely have some basic hurricane protection, so agree with PP that home is safer than driving through potential storm traffic.

Finally, unlike Irma and Ian, this storm is tracking remarkably stable. That is it has barely changed its expected path since late Sunday night. The experts seem pretty confident in this path. Compare with Ian and Irma where for days before the path was jumping wildly over the state. Irma four days out was set to hit Miami, then a day later they had it set to go south of Florida and hook back around and hit Sarasota. Three day out, Ian was set to hit well north of Tampa and then a day later they had it moved considerably south.

My son is freaked about hurricanes because of the last few, but I told him there’s no way I would make us stay home unless I was certain there was no risk. And that’s how I still feel.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

Yeah, she lives on the Intracoastal and has four kids and an infant. Do you still feel the same?

The Intracoastal isn't really in Tampa? I'm not sure where your friend is, or what her house is like - and I certainly don't know enough about her situation to second guess her own judgment. But you do, it sounds like! I'm sure she appreciates your "concern" about her and her family.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

Yeah, she lives on the Intracoastal and has four kids and an infant. Do you still feel the same?

The Intracoastal isn't really in Tampa? I'm not sure where your friend is, or what her house is like - and I certainly don't know enough about her situation to second guess her own judgment. But you do, it sounds like! I'm sure she appreciates your "concern" about her and her family.

She’s in Belleair. I didn’t realize there were so many FL residents here when I spoke so generally.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

+1. We’re just south of Tampa. Just some things to add:

The evacuation zones aren’t by area, they are by sea level. Lowest sea levels evacuate first. We live on the only hill in Florida (lol) and we are in the last evac zone while our neighbors across the street are in the first. You have no idea what zone she’s in, and most of Tampa has not been ordered to evac.

If her house is newer, it will be built up on stilts and likely have some basic hurricane protection, so agree with PP that home is safer than driving through potential storm traffic.

Finally, unlike Irma and Ian, this storm is tracking remarkably stable. That is it has barely changed its expected path since late Sunday night. The experts seem pretty confident in this path. Compare with Ian and Irma where for days before the path was jumping wildly over the state. Irma four days out was set to hit Miami, then a day later they had it set to go south of Florida and hook back around and hit Sarasota. Three day out, Ian was set to hit well north of Tampa and then a day later they had it moved considerably south.

My son is freaked about hurricanes because of the last few, but I told him there’s no way I would make us stay home unless I was certain there was no risk. And that’s how I still feel.

I am the PP - and we're south of Tampa, too, up a little hill. I wonder if we're neighbors!

Here's hoping the weather gods are kind to us over the next couple of days. I do still get freaked out - but I really really appreciate the more weathered (so to speak) Floridians who keep their heads about them and just buy some extra wine. I hope your son feels more comfortable with all this soon, too!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

Yeah, she lives on the Intracoastal and has four kids and an infant. Do you still feel the same?

The Intracoastal isn't really in Tampa? I'm not sure where your friend is, or what her house is like - and I certainly don't know enough about her situation to second guess her own judgment. But you do, it sounds like! I'm sure she appreciates your "concern" about her and her family.

She’s in Belleair. I didn’t realize there were so many FL residents here when I spoke so generally.

Yeah, I mean look - I wouldn't want to stay in a beach town through a hurricane. But I really would trust that she has evaluated her options and decided that staying is her best one. Like PP said, if she has a newer house, it's probably built to be as hurricane resistant as possible - and she might also just feel the dangers of packing four kids into a car for a very uncertain drive is more risk than staying.

And if things do start looking hairier, there are evacuation shelters in her area that she can get to. She has time to make that decision.

[Anonymous]

Make what make sense? Why are you using that phrase? It's dumb.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

+1. We’re just south of Tampa. Just some things to add:

The evacuation zones aren’t by area, they are by sea level. Lowest sea levels evacuate first. We live on the only hill in Florida (lol) and we are in the last evac zone while our neighbors across the street are in the first. You have no idea what zone she’s in, and most of Tampa has not been ordered to evac.

If her house is newer, it will be built up on stilts and likely have some basic hurricane protection, so agree with PP that home is safer than driving through potential storm traffic.

Finally, unlike Irma and Ian, this storm is tracking remarkably stable. That is it has barely changed its expected path since late Sunday night. The experts seem pretty confident in this path. Compare with Ian and Irma where for days before the path was jumping wildly over the state. Irma four days out was set to hit Miami, then a day later they had it set to go south of Florida and hook back around and hit Sarasota. Three day out, Ian was set to hit well north of Tampa and then a day later they had it moved considerably south.

My son is freaked about hurricanes because of the last few, but I told him there’s no way I would make us stay home unless I was certain there was no risk. And that’s how I still feel.

I am the PP - and we're south of Tampa, too, up a little hill. I wonder if we're neighbors!

Here's hoping the weather gods are kind to us over the next couple of days. I do still get freaked out - but I really really appreciate the more weathered (so to speak) Floridians who keep their heads about them and just buy some extra wine. I hope your son feels more comfortable with all this soon, too!

I'm not a lifelong Floridian. Eight years in Miami - which weirdly had zero hurricanes that period. And then 7 here on the gulf coast. I always get really really nervous about storms and am super precautious. But this one genuinely seems like anyone Tampa or south would be putting themselves in more danger to leave their house. If you lived in the direct cone of the predicted storm, then yeah, get the hell out. But Tampa is totally outside the predicted area - not just off the predicted path (two different things). So we are pretty comfortable with this decision.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

Yeah, she lives on the Intracoastal and has four kids and an infant. Do you still feel the same?

The Intracoastal isn't really in Tampa? I'm not sure where your friend is, or what her house is like - and I certainly don't know enough about her situation to second guess her own judgment. But you do, it sounds like! I'm sure she appreciates your "concern" about her and her family.

She’s in Belleair. I didn’t realize there were so many FL residents here when I spoke so generally.

Yeah, I mean look - I wouldn't want to stay in a beach town through a hurricane. But I really would trust that she has evaluated her options and decided that staying is her best one. Like PP said, if she has a newer house, it's probably built to be as hurricane resistant as possible - and she might also just feel the dangers of packing four kids into a car for a very uncertain drive is more risk than staying.

And if things do start looking hairier, there are evacuation shelters in her area that she can get to. She has time to make that decision.

She has since posted another Instagram story about how she’s now worried about her garage/Florida “basement” level flooding, but they are staying put.

I just worry for the kids being scared and having enough food/water in the event they are flooded in.

[Anonymous]

I’m from Tampa and the city has had so many misses that people seem to get rather blasé about hurricanes. Also if you’re not in a flood zone and have a generator, you’re in pretty good shape to ride it out.

[Anonymous]

Today's weather reporting is like reading the little boy who cried wolf to my child. We can only take so many fear mongering stories before completely ignoring them and potentially missing the one actual "hit" of a storm. To bring it closer to home, how many "snowstorms" have we had through the years where schools closed, government shut down, and I'm out in my driveway shoveling raindrops. It's all about getting clicks on headlines and eyeballs on TV and a ho hum forecast doesnt move the needle.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Today's weather reporting is like reading the little boy who cried wolf to my child. We can only take so many fear mongering stories before completely ignoring them and potentially missing the one actual "hit" of a storm. To bring it closer to home, how many "snowstorms" have we had through the years where schools closed, government shut down, and I'm out in my driveway shoveling raindrops. It's all about getting clicks on headlines and eyeballs on TV and a ho hum forecast doesnt move the needle.

That's not how hurricanes work

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

+1. We’re just south of Tampa. Just some things to add:

The evacuation zones aren’t by area, they are by sea level. Lowest sea levels evacuate first. We live on the only hill in Florida (lol) and we are in the last evac zone while our neighbors across the street are in the first. You have no idea what zone she’s in, and most of Tampa has not been ordered to evac.

If her house is newer, it will be built up on stilts and likely have some basic hurricane protection, so agree with PP that home is safer than driving through potential storm traffic.

Finally, unlike Irma and Ian, this storm is tracking remarkably stable. That is it has barely changed its expected path since late Sunday night. The experts seem pretty confident in this path. Compare with Ian and Irma where for days before the path was jumping wildly over the state. Irma four days out was set to hit Miami, then a day later they had it set to go south of Florida and hook back around and hit Sarasota. Three day out, Ian was set to hit well north of Tampa and then a day later they had it moved considerably south.

My son is freaked about hurricanes because of the last few, but I told him there’s no way I would make us stay home unless I was certain there was no risk. And that’s how I still feel.

I am the PP - and we're south of Tampa, too, up a little hill. I wonder if we're neighbors!

Here's hoping the weather gods are kind to us over the next couple of days. I do still get freaked out - but I really really appreciate the more weathered (so to speak) Floridians who keep their heads about them and just buy some extra wine. I hope your son feels more comfortable with all this soon, too!

I'm not a lifelong Floridian. Eight years in Miami - which weirdly had zero hurricanes that period. And then 7 here on the gulf coast. I always get really really nervous about storms and am super precautious. But this one genuinely seems like anyone Tampa or south would be putting themselves in more danger to leave their house. If you lived in the direct cone of the predicted storm, then yeah, get the hell out. But Tampa is totally outside the predicted area - not just off the predicted path (two different things). So we are pretty comfortable with this decision.

NP. I have family in Tampa who made the same call not to evacuate- they may have made a different call if they were in the cone of prediction as well but they're south of it.

Honestly the predicted landfall zone is probably the least-bad spot on the FL gulf coast because it's relatively lass populated and there are still wetland buffers along the coast.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I grew up in an area where natural disasters were frequent enough that they didn't scare people like they do to people who aren't used to them. So I'm definitely familiar with that "eh it'll be fine" mentality (not that I agree with it)

I’m not debating evacuating or not, but her phrasing is ridiculous. If it turned S last time and avoided her, who is to say this one won’t also turn S and hit her directly?

I also live in Tampa Bay and am not evacuating, and let me explain this to you:

1. Mandatory evacuation orders don't apply to everyone in the area. They apply to people in certain evacuation zones. So evacuation zone A gets the mandatory order first - those are the people closest to the water. There are zones B, C, and D - these are further and further out from the water. You may get a mandatory order for more of the zones, the worse the storm is expected to be. Right now it's just zone A that's got the order in Hillsborough County, where Tampa is. We live in zone X, which means we are never mandated to evacuate, even though our county is under an evacuation order.

If you don't know what zone your friend is in, you don't know if she's been mandated to evacuate - and some people choose not to evacuate even if there is an order for their zone, for good and bad reasons.

2. Your friend is correct that we don't know where the hurricane is going to hit exactly, yet. Hurricanes move, they have uncertain paths. When we were new to Florida, we decided to evacuate for our first hurricane - which looked like it was bearing right down on us. We ended up evacuating across the state - and in the end, the hurricane hit where we'd evacuated to, and when we finally got home we hadn't even lost power here.

3. There are costs and dangers to leaving. The airports are closed and gas is hard to come by. You can only get as far as one tank of gas will get you - and you may end up stuck in traffic on the highway as the hurricane is coming. That is a worst case scenario. More likely, you get a hotel in Orlando - and then the hurricane hits Orlando. Or wherever. You can end up putting yourself in danger, trying to escape danger. For many many people, the safest thing to do is hunker down at home. That is not the case if you are in a trailer park, or a house right on the beach - but if you are inland at all, in a solid house, you usually want to buy flashlights, cookies, and water, and just stay put.

Your friend is making a rational decision - it may not be the decision you'd make, but it's not crazy. People outside of Florida don't really understand what it's like living with hurricanes. My parents still call asking me to go evacuate - and as many times as I tell them that there is nowhere to evacuate to, because you don't know where the hurricane is actually going to hit and you can only get as far as one tank of gas will take you, they still have to say it. So you're just thinking this through like everyone outside of Florida is thinking this through - but your friend is thinking it through like someone who actually lives with these storms.

Yeah, she lives on the Intracoastal and has four kids and an infant. Do you still feel the same?

The Intracoastal isn't really in Tampa? I'm not sure where your friend is, or what her house is like - and I certainly don't know enough about her situation to second guess her own judgment. But you do, it sounds like! I'm sure she appreciates your "concern" about her and her family.

She’s in Belleair. I didn’t realize there were so many FL residents here when I spoke so generally.

Yeah, I mean look - I wouldn't want to stay in a beach town through a hurricane. But I really would trust that she has evaluated her options and decided that staying is her best one. Like PP said, if she has a newer house, it's probably built to be as hurricane resistant as possible - and she might also just feel the dangers of packing four kids into a car for a very uncertain drive is more risk than staying.

And if things do start looking hairier, there are evacuation shelters in her area that she can get to. She has time to make that decision.

She has since posted another Instagram story about how she’s now worried about her garage/Florida “basement” level flooding, but they are staying put.

I just worry for the kids being scared and having enough food/water in the event they are flooded in.

OP you're just looking to judge this person. "Basement" in Florida typically refers to a house built since 1996 where they build on sticks. By law, you can put a garage and non-a/c'd space down there, and even wall it in - but the space is engineered specifically to have hurricane flood waters tear through them without damaging the building. So the entire point of the "basement" is to absorb hurricane waters. They expect water to go in that space. It's not like a basement in the NE where water would be a major problem. That she is in a house on stilts tells me she is extremely well positioned to stay home - her house is designed to withstand some hurricane damage.

Stop looking to judge her.