| Ukrainian morale is faltering- the tanks are in substantial part a morale booster, or at least intended to be. |
This PP is on the mark, particularly w/ respect to the fact that the US donation of M1s unlocks donations from many other countries, which adds up to a significant tank capability with associated logistics and parts and repair network, (which doesn’t really exist on the same scale for the M1 in Europe, although the US does have itself M1 capability in Europe). Also - don’t forget the *fantastic* Ukrainian rail service. They have done an incredible job getting railway tracks and stations back up and running and they will ensure the tanks get to the front. As for Russian tanks - yes, they have a lot but they have been poorly maintained and the Russians have and can continue to mobilize large numbers of troops, they have been completely unable to train and equip them. Even Russian soldiers themselves complain that they are simply been thrown into the meat grinder. Factor in the reach of HIMARs and excellent intelligence about supply depots and rail/road use, and the Russians are facing a grim year. And, IMO, Ukraine is likely to get ATACMS (call for which just supported by bipartisan US senators) which would enable Ukraine to hit all Russian occupied territory, including Crimea. And the discussion is opening for US F-17s and French Mistrals. Russia cannot and will not win this war; at best they can hope for ceasefire and frozen conflict, which, frankly, would be highly useful for them but hopefully the western allies like FR, US and FRG won’t fall for peace at that price (certainly the Balts, the Poles and the Finns won’t). BTW, could we stop talking about Ukrainians like they’re idiots comparable to US recruits who train for a year on something? The entire population is highly motivated and highly educated. Prior to the war there were tons of UKR IT people working for major American tech and other companies. Ukrainians have been able to code new systems to integrate incoming intelligence and target extremely quickly. Prior to the war, UKR was a major arms manufacturer. They had a tank factory in Kharkiv for decades, for example, and in Lviv since 2019, and continue to build and innovate in the military space. You PPs above who think the US is using stupid UKR forces to test out new weapon systems have it backwards. Ukraine is improving and improvising systems in ways that the US and NATO never imagined. At the end of this war, Ukraine is going to be the best prepared NATO fighting force in all of Europe - having used practically every type of weapon from every NATO country for reals in battle. |
Russia already lost a significant percentage of its operable tanks in this war. A large percentage of those 10k tanks in reserve are not operable, are rusted out, were stripped for parts, stolen and sold, and so on, non-functional due to lack of maintenance, poor storage, most of which due to extreme corruption. Many of the newer of the tanks, T-72, T-80 and others have not been able to be repaired for lack of electronic components due to sanctions. It has been documented that Russia has resorted to deploying antiquated T-62 tanks, which are much more vulnerable to anti-tank weaponry. And even there, Russian attempts to retrieve those functional cold war tanks from storage is optimistic if it is in the hundreds, far short of the 10k. All of this also begins to leave Russia vulnerable relative to self defense or its ambitions on the global stage. |
WTH is a “US F-17”?
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Oh please, you all. We will send mercenaries that know how to fix and operate the tanks.
Germany having a military has never been a good idea, and they are shoring it up as best as they can. Before you know it Ukraine will be under German occupation. But, this will be a willing one, just like the last time. |
| And none of you cares that our money is paying for the purchase of all this and linking hr pockets of the military-industrial complex and their CEOs..again. |
I have a problem with the industrial military complex sucking up taxpayer dollars when they are not needed, or worse, used to arm police departments to the teeth (and used against an unsuspecting American public), or get used in fake wars started with fake information. Ukraine? Bring it on, baby. This is the kind of legitimate use of military weaponry we can all stand behind. |
Why though? Were you ok with trillions of our money being in pockets of CEOs too? |
Wow. So much deeply opinionated but quite wrong in this post. |
At least our oligarchy isn't (yet) anywhere near as bad as Russia's oligarchy. |
Lol, only ignorant American would be unconcerned about Germany. |
Oooga booga. This "ignorant American" lived in Germany for over a decade. I know more about Germany than you ever will. |
There is no such thing as a country where the ENTIRE population is highly educated. I mean who do you think mops the floors there? Paints houses? Carries bricks? Cleans streets? Come on. |
They meant F-16. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28/pentagon-send-f-16s-ukraine-00080045 But I think the 321 heavy tanks is a game changer as well. To understand why, take a look at this: https://twitter.com/golub/status/1583002109485940736 See how low and fast that helicopter is flying to avoid being shot down? That means the Russians may try to use Frogfoots (e.g. jets), which aren't as effective in many cases as helicopters are in the anti-tank role. It's just really, really difficult to (a) acquire a target in a fast moving plane, and (b) hit the target before the target hits you. What that means is it is very unlikely the Russians can muster a significant air-based anti-tank capability. Russia most likely also can't whip up significant infantry support (ex. heavy tanks / artillery / advanced ATGM's) to counter or at least slow down 321 heavy tanks. Infantry without support vs heavy tanks are a bad match up. The heavy tanks wouldn't even need to use an HE - coax is fine unless it's a bunker. Add the Bradleys and new AA's from Germany into the mix and you've got some nice drive-up perimeter security. Even if Russian infantry set up defenses or try to go anti-tank, the tanks just needs to pick them off from long range - remember it's cold now and western tank thermals are really, really good. Even if the Russians had sufficient anti-tank units / weapons lying around and could drop it all in overnight, their current offensives are burning up so much ammo and personnel that heavy tanks showing up on their flanks would be bad news. The Russian Army would probably need to commit whatever reserves they have to stop a breakthrough. That means the Russians would also be forced to close in to try to take out the tanks before a defensive location is wiped out. At that point, the Ukrainians would have even more targets to shoot at. That would make the Russians vulnerable on even well defended positions in their rear areas. Plus there's also the morale factor. There's just something special about heavy tanks like the M1 and German Leopards that's hard to explain in words. They both have "presence". Seasoned troops would be fearful going up against them, let alone conscripts. A sane person would run like hell, and even then, if you saw the tank with your eyeballs; it's probably too late. |
+1 |