NIH Long Covid study

[Anonymous]

Isn't the takeaway this, which most people here don't seem to be understanding: the physical ailments that would generally be responsible for causing the reported symptoms of "long Covid" are not present in higher rates in the Covid test group than in the control group. Meaning, there is, according to this study, no evidence of Covid causing long-term health problems. There is some evidence that those symptoms may be caused by underlying anxiety. So many posters seem to be interpreting this as "long term Covid exists and we still don't know why."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is an important study and jumping off point for long-haul Covid issues. If you've taken a research methods class, you know that one can only fail to support or support a hypothesis. This study did not test whether anxiety or mental health concerns were the cause of long-haul Covid symptoms, so we can't draw any scientifically supported conclusions about the syndrome being all "in your head." This study did not evlauate the "realness" of post-Covid symptoms, only some possible causal factors.

Some medical professionals believe that mast cell activation syndrome (MCAS) and/or postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS), a dysautonomia, may be the cause of long-haul Covid symptoms. As far as I can tell from a keyword search of the article, none of the diagnostic blood or urine markers for MCAS were tested in this study. Nor were study participants subjected to a tilt table test, the diagnostic standard for POTS. As well, the possible causes of dysautonomia, like an imbalance the renin-angiostensin-aldosterone system were not tested in this study. It is a great start, and I it is good that we have this research, but it still leaves more questions than answers when it comes to post-Covid symptoms.

Agree, though I would amend your statement to "some medical professionals hypothesize that mast cell activation syndrome (MCAS) and/or postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS), a dysautonomia, may be the cause of long-haul Covid symptoms." Not belief. A lot of what gets discussed as fact or belief around long Covid is really just scientific speculation. Similar to speculation early int he pandemic as to why Covid was so mild in young children -- there were medical professionals who hypothesized that hit had to do with frequent recent exposure to other coronaviruses, and other people speculated that certain childhood vaccines could be offering a stronger immune response. Neither of those are medical facts, it's just people thinking critically about something and speculating on possible causes.

I think it will be difficult to design a study into MCAS/POTS as possible causes of long Covid until the medical community can narrow the meaning of "long Covid". One thing making it hard to do research in this area right now is that the current trend is to constantly expand the definition of long Covid, to include literally any symptom that occurs in a person who at some point tested positive for Covid. You can't run studies into that. Most likely future studies will be limited to people with the most severe or debilitating long Covid symptoms, which is probably as it should be. I think with time many people who are currently considered to have long Covid will no longer be treated as such. A lingering cough after a respiratory virus is not uncommon. Mental health issues like anxiety or depression can have many causes and will be very hard to link to Covid itself.

I think in a few years, the idea that "most" people who get Covid have long Covid will be considered silly.

It would be good to know wouldn’t it? I’ve somehow managed to avoid Covid thus far (it’s so prevalent now it may be any day) and my biggest concern is the long term issues you read about with potential impacts on cardiovascular function, onset of diabetes, brain plaques, etc. If we could rule these kinds of things out - or show they are super rare - in vaxxed and boosted people - society could really return to almost fully normal

Yes, and that's why the media hype around this is so irresponsible.

I haven't had Covid yet either (as far as I know), but I choose not to worry about long Covid until I see a study *with a control group* that shows that it is a frequent occurrence in mild cases. So far, that study doesn't exist. I am not susceptible to media hype because I know how to evaluate sources.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Isn't the takeaway this, which most people here don't seem to be understanding: the physical ailments that would generally be responsible for causing the reported symptoms of "long Covid" are not present in higher rates in the Covid test group than in the control group. Meaning, there is, according to this study, no evidence of Covid causing long-term health problems. There is some evidence that those symptoms may be caused by underlying anxiety. So many posters seem to be interpreting this as "long term Covid exists and we still don't know why."

No, that is not the correct interpretation (scientist here). The correct interpretation is not that there are no health problems. In fact, there are numerous studies that connect COVID with increased risk for vascular problems, diabetes, even impotence. That said, long covid is not about increased risk but about symptoms.

The correct interpretation is that “none of the tests performed in this study were significantly different between the two groups.”

There are numerous illnesses we accept as real and that there are no physiological tests for, just reports of symptoms or fuzzy cognitive tests that are impossible to standardize. Examples include schizophrenia, Alzheimer’s, ADHD, and chronic back or knee pain. We assume many many people are sick with colds even without finding their specific virus or physiological signals. So the conclusion of this study doesn’t say much. It definitely does not say long covid is just a bunch of lazy fakers, and it definitely doesn’t say it isn’t, either. Science is slow, and is abused if you jump to conclusions.

[Anonymous]

I assume long Covid triggers some sort of autoimmune problem that doctors can’t figure out. If long Covid shows up in more men than women, medical science will bend over backwards to find a solution. If it’s more women, it will be the new hysteria.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I assume long Covid triggers some sort of autoimmune problem that doctors can’t figure out. If long Covid shows up in more men than women, medical science will bend over backwards to find a solution. If it’s more women, it will be the new hysteria.

This is based on what? Your gut feeling? Ma'am, this is a serious conversation, please stick to verifiable facts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I assume long Covid triggers some sort of autoimmune problem that doctors can’t figure out. If long Covid shows up in more men than women, medical science will bend over backwards to find a solution. If it’s more women, it will be the new hysteria.

This is based on what? Your gut feeling? Ma'am, this is a serious conversation, please stick to verifiable facts.

This is an anonymous message board, after all. I'm not justifying pp's gut feeling, but I am saying it's OK to express here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Isn't the takeaway this, which most people here don't seem to be understanding: the physical ailments that would generally be responsible for causing the reported symptoms of "long Covid" are not present in higher rates in the Covid test group than in the control group. Meaning, there is, according to this study, no evidence of Covid causing long-term health problems. There is some evidence that those symptoms may be caused by underlying anxiety. So many posters seem to be interpreting this as "long term Covid exists and we still don't know why."

OP here and I don't think most posters in this thread have drawn that conclusion at all. I do think that's what a lot of people on Twitter are saying, including a lot of doctors who have been posting about long Covid for a long time and are trying to immediately discredit this study because it contradicts what they've been saying. I am cynical because I think many of these doctors fear that if it turns out long Covid isn't really the crisis they have been touting it as, they will no longer get the media and speaking gigs related to long Covid. I think there's some grifting going on.

One thing I appreciated about the thread on this study I posted in my OP is that it's very balanced. He notes the limitations of the study -- it doesn't include patients who had serious cases of Covid that required hospitalization, and the tests they ran are not exhaustive (though do cover all the standard diagnostic bases, I should note). He's not saying the study participants are lying about their symptoms, be he's noting that the study found these symptoms could not be attributed to any of the physiological conditions they tested for. I think it's most notable that they could find any difference in lung capacity and only very slight differences in endurance between the test and control groups, even though members of the test group were much more likely to list "shortness of breath" as a symptom. This does lend itself to the idea that there is some psychosomatic component to this.

The thing is, I do think there are longterm issues with Covid in some people. But this study seems to indicate that they are not widespread and that, specifically, they aren't common in people who had mild cases (which is most people). I can't figure out why people don't see this as GOOD news, given all the long Covid hype we've seen recently. Why are people so invested in the idea that Covid (an illness pretty much all of us will have eventually) is debilitating? Wouldn't it be good to learn that most people return to good health after recovery? It honestly sets me at ease as someone who has not had it yet but knows it's probably only a matter of time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I assume long Covid triggers some sort of autoimmune problem that doctors can’t figure out. If long Covid shows up in more men than women, medical science will bend over backwards to find a solution. If it’s more women, it will be the new hysteria.

This is based on what? Your gut feeling? Ma'am, this is a serious conversation, please stick to verifiable facts.

This is an anonymous message board, after all. I'm not justifying pp's gut feeling, but I am saying it's OK to express here.

I mean sure, I guess we can all speculate wildly based on on nothing.

In that case, I think long Covid is basically a form of Munchausens, in which people attribute any and all physical or mental issues to Covid as a way of attracting attention, especially from medical caregivers. Also potentially to retain a reason to avoid in-person work forever. This is based on nothing more than my gut feeling, but I think it's important to share with everyone here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Isn't the takeaway this, which most people here don't seem to be understanding: the physical ailments that would generally be responsible for causing the reported symptoms of "long Covid" are not present in higher rates in the Covid test group than in the control group. Meaning, there is, according to this study, no evidence of Covid causing long-term health problems. There is some evidence that those symptoms may be caused by underlying anxiety. So many posters seem to be interpreting this as "long term Covid exists and we still don't know why."

No, that is not the correct interpretation (scientist here). The correct interpretation is not that there are no health problems. In fact, there are numerous studies that connect COVID with increased risk for vascular problems, diabetes, even impotence. That said, long covid is not about increased risk but about symptoms.

The correct interpretation is that “none of the tests performed in this study were significantly different between the two groups.”

There are numerous illnesses we accept as real and that there are no physiological tests for, just reports of symptoms or fuzzy cognitive tests that are impossible to standardize. Examples include schizophrenia, Alzheimer’s, ADHD, and chronic back or knee pain. We assume many many people are sick with colds even without finding their specific virus or physiological signals. So the conclusion of this study doesn’t say much. It definitely does not say long covid is just a bunch of lazy fakers, and it definitely doesn’t say it isn’t, either. Science is slow, and is abused if you jump to conclusions.

Like jumping to the conclusion that covid will cause rampant long term damage to the health of the majority of people who get it? Is that the type of conclusion you’re worried about people jumping to?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I assume long Covid triggers some sort of autoimmune problem that doctors can’t figure out. If long Covid shows up in more men than women, medical science will bend over backwards to find a solution. If it’s more women, it will be the new hysteria.

This is based on what? Your gut feeling? Ma'am, this is a serious conversation, please stick to verifiable facts.

This is an anonymous message board, after all. I'm not justifying pp's gut feeling, but I am saying it's OK to express here.

DP. The problem is that there are plenty of people who will think the PP's statement is based on something and will incorporate it into their thinking about Covid. People are notoriously bad at evaluating sources of information.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How do you explain my cardiac issues that are very clearly seen via MRI and echocardiogram? And no, they weren’t there previously. I am in my 30s, incredibly fit, was running 35-40 miles per week before I got sick (this was pre-vaccine; first wave). Literally couldn’t breathe even though my lung capacity is usually off the charts. I needed inhalers for the first time in my life and even those didn’t work super well. Ekg and blood work showed many abnormalities. I was declared disabled for 1.5 years because I had medical evidence of my persistent illness. These are all very objective measures. Nothing psychosomatic about it.

So you had MRIs and echocardiograms before your 30s? I would have to ask why? If these were not visible before COVID and are now, I could see how you would jump to causation and not correlation. However, I assume you actually never had an MRI or echo before, so you have no evidence. My sister developed the problems that you describe in her mid-30s--in 2002! Long before Covid. And many thousands of others develop these issues in their 30s as well. Please, understand, correlation is not causation. Talk a bit about your mindset overall. What are your stress and anxiety levels like generally?

I had had cardiac work ups before long covid thank you very much. I have been an athlete (former college athlete) my entire life. Now what else do you want to tell me is all in my head?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The new Havana syndrome

Not sure this is making the point you think it is making

NP. This is the leftist "I know you are but what am I"

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I assume long Covid triggers some sort of autoimmune problem that doctors can’t figure out. If long Covid shows up in more men than women, medical science will bend over backwards to find a solution. If it’s more women, it will be the new hysteria.

This is based on what? Your gut feeling? Ma'am, this is a serious conversation, please stick to verifiable facts.

This is an anonymous message board, after all. I'm not justifying pp's gut feeling, but I am saying it's OK to express here.

I mean sure, I guess we can all speculate wildly based on on nothing.

In that case, I think long Covid is basically a form of Munchausens, in which people attribute any and all physical or mental issues to Covid as a way of attracting attention, especially from medical caregivers. Also potentially to retain a reason to avjoid in-person work forever. This is based on nothing more than my gut feeling, but I think it's important to share with everyone here.

I think you left out the /S

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Isn't the takeaway this, which most people here don't seem to be understanding: the physical ailments that would generally be responsible for causing the reported symptoms of "long Covid" are not present in higher rates in the Covid test group than in the control group. Meaning, there is, according to this study, no evidence of Covid causing long-term health problems. There is some evidence that those symptoms may be caused by underlying anxiety. So many posters seem to be interpreting this as "long term Covid exists and we still don't know why."

Yes, that is the conclusion (the "scientist's" objection notwithstanding), and it is congruent with all other Long Covid studies that had a proper control group. The problem isn't that we don't have the proper tests to pinpoint the physiological cause. The problem is that there is no statistical difference in the prevalence of these symptoms between the test group and the control group, and therefore no evidence that the virus caused the symptoms.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How do you explain my cardiac issues that are very clearly seen via MRI and echocardiogram? And no, they weren’t there previously. I am in my 30s, incredibly fit, was running 35-40 miles per week before I got sick (this was pre-vaccine; first wave). Literally couldn’t breathe even though my lung capacity is usually off the charts. I needed inhalers for the first time in my life and even those didn’t work super well. Ekg and blood work showed many abnormalities. I was declared disabled for 1.5 years because I had medical evidence of my persistent illness. These are all very objective measures. Nothing psychosomatic about it.

So you had MRIs and echocardiograms before your 30s? I would have to ask why? If these were not visible before COVID and are now, I could see how you would jump to causation and not correlation. However, I assume you actually never had an MRI or echo before, so you have no evidence. My sister developed the problems that you describe in her mid-30s--in 2002! Long before Covid. And many thousands of others develop these issues in their 30s as well. Please, understand, correlation is not causation. Talk a bit about your mindset overall. What are your stress and anxiety levels like generally?

I had had cardiac work ups before long covid thank you very much. I have been an athlete (former college athlete) my entire life. Now what else do you want to tell me is all in my head?

Why? I was a division 1 college athlete in an actual, cardio intensive sport and never once had a cardiac work up involving EKGs, MRIs, and bloodwork. I assume, then, there was a red flag at some point in time. Wouldn't that be just as likely a suspect in your case of shortness of breath and abnormalities? Related to whatever prompted the testing earlier in your life?