How accurate are CollegeVine predictions?
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Anonymous
Not related.  Rankings are subjective and are not “real”. There are a million threads about rankings; please don’t change the topic of this one.
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Anonymous
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I had never heard of college vine and just put it in for my DD who is a senior. One thing I will comment on is that it does not take into account if you applied ED, EA, or RD for schools.
It was quite accurate for her. She only applied EA and RD. I think she would have gotten into the "Hard Target" & "target" that waitlisted her if she had applied to those schools ED. Her results: 3 Reaches (1-denied, 2-waitlisted); 2 Hard Targets (1-accepted, 1-waitlisted); 4 Targets (3-accepted, 1-waitlist); 3 Safeties (3-accepted) |
Anonymous
| They just redid their algorithms and possibly added latest data and chances plummeted big time. Yikes. |
Anonymous
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It was definitely correct regarding Safety schools.
Target was anything with an overall acceptance rate of >65% and the collegevine guestimate of >40% chance. It worked out 100% correct. Hard Targets were a 50/50 mixed bag. Overall acceptance 40% - 65%, and collegevine guestimate between 20% - 30%. I would say it helped setting expectations. |
Anonymous
Yes!! I noticed that too. Also, they have a prompt for specific HS. I wonder if that's new...it was blank which seems like an odd oversight. |
Anonymous
!!! This is the OP of this thread. I gave some examples a few posts down of what it had been. After the changes, Vassar dropped to an 18% chance for her. Oberlin dropped to 34%. Total bummer, but it sounds more accurate to me. |
Anonymous
I also thought it was too optimistic- it made Carnegie Mellon a hard target, and it’s a high reach for my kid. Doesn’t have the stats. But now some of the lower ranked schools seem overly pessimistic. |
Anonymous
| For my kid spot on. But she applied to schools, mostly larger public, in the 50-100 range with higher acceptance rates. She was still a tad weak for some but got into almost all. Again, acceptance rates are key. |
Anonymous
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We thought college vine was fairly accurate. DD applied to 15 schools. According to College Vine the breakdown was as follows:
1 Reach - 1 waitlist 4 Hard Targets- 1 waitlist, 3 rejections 7 Targets - 4 acceptances (2 with merit aid), 1 waitlist and 2 rejections 3 safeties - 2 acceptances (with merit), 1 waitlist It did have Texas as a target but we knew it would be a reach OOS. It also had VA TECH as a safety but we knew that we would be waitlisted there. Test scores and gpa were both over 75% but did not apply ED. We have an older kid with similar stats that was waitlisted. 13/15 seemed to be accurate. |
Anonymous
Thank you for sharing! Was this under the old algorithm or the updated one (with the last few days)? |
Anonymous
It does't seem to factor this into the results. As such, it really doesn't make any sense for private school kids with deflated GPAs. |
Anonymous
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Sad but glad it recalibrated. For my first it had Ivies as reach, a T10 U and 2 T10 LACs as hard target, T 20 LACs as targets. While she did ok, it was much more of a crap shoot that thoses labels would have suggested, and she got lucky with well timed awards. Got into 2 of 4 reaches, 1 of 3 hard targets (&1 WL) and all targets. Was oddly rejected by an 83% acceptance safety!
#2 will need a wider scope of schools and a more realistic scenario. |
Anonymous
| Wow, that recalibration was significant. It changed many "hard target" to "reaches" and "targets" to "reaches"! And finally fixed the unrealistic "safety" for VT. |
Anonymous
| They must still be tweaking their system. It’s totally different today with some significant errors. Yesterday’s reach is a safety today. |
Anonymous
It says dc has a 72% chance (Target) of getting into Wellesley but a 27% chance (hard target) at Skidmore. Give me the Wellesley ED app now. |