How accurate are CollegeVine predictions?

[Anonymous]

I just tried this for my 10th grader with speculated but realistic stats. It seemed really overly optimistic compared to what I see on this board where a 28 on the ACT doesn’t even exist.

[Anonymous]

Class of 2021, kid got rejected from some schools that College Vine said were "safeties." (We knew better.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DS is a rising senior in FCPS. He wants to study CS. College Vine has a 92% chance for admission at VA Tech and 60% CWRU. From what I've read, there is no chance in hell that Tech is a safety. Could easily see deferrals/denials from one or both of these schools.

Does College Vine take into account intended major? If not, it won’t really apply for CS and engineering at many places.

PP...it does allow you to enter that info. I believe you.

For CS major, UIUC is showing 63% overall acceptance rate. You can judge how accurate that is! I like the site for other reasons.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Class of 2021, kid got rejected from some schools that College Vine said were "safeties." (We knew better.)

This is OP. Sorry to hear! Do you mind giving examples?

I plugged in Clark, Muhlenberg, and Marist, and those all came up safeties (and I assume they should be). It skk look so said Fordham was a safety, though. Lots of side-eye from me on that one!

[Anonymous]

Ridiculously inaccurate. Our college counselor, on the other hand, was spot on.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Class of 2021, kid got rejected from some schools that College Vine said were "safeties." (We knew better.)

This is OP. Sorry to hear! Do you mind giving examples?

I plugged in Clark, Muhlenberg, and Marist, and those all came up safeties (and I assume they should be). It skk look so said Fordham was a safety, though. Lots of side-eye from me on that one!

Sorry for the weird typos!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Class of 2021, kid got rejected from some schools that College Vine said were "safeties." (We knew better.)

Weird pandemic year?

Maybe things will smooth out and become more normal in 1-2 years.

[Anonymous]

Yes you should look at Vassar and any other schools she might like. For SLACs, ED typically gives a large bump. My DS applied to a different school ED (would’ve applied to Vassar RD) where the difference was something like 10% regular admissions acceptance rate and over or around 50% ED acceptance rate. I know the ED rate is skewed due to athletes etc but it’s still a great bump.

To get back to your question, I believe that collegevine said the school was a high target and gave a predicted 19% chance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seemed pretty accurate this year, but when something is an under 20% or 10% it is easy to be right.

Thank you. Yes, obviously if it says my child has a 9% chance of admission to Brown (which it does), then rejection is the expected outcome.

It is currently saying 77% chance at Emerson, 58% chance at Oberlin, and 36% chance at Vassar (as examples). 93% chance at Muhlenberg. I used unweighted GPA, which I assume is correct? I'm making some assumptions as DD is a sophomore. She took the PSATs, and I know her historic standardized test scores, so I extrapolated. I assumed staying the course of ECs, though they could be a bit stronger or weaker by senior year. I know how many IB classes she plans to take.

I want to give DD a list of schools to consider for college visits next year. Is it reasonable to mention Vassar? I think she'd freaking love it, but I don't want to set her up for a high reach/out of reach school - and we won't have time for unlimited college visits.

I also wonder what year's admissions this is based on. These things seem to lag a little as many colleges aren't forthcoming w/ data. In this climate there as been a sharp or notable incline 20-21 and 21-22 in most top univ applications. Brown's RD admissions were at 3.5%. It's just nuts and doesn't look to crest until 25 or so.

[Anonymous]

Poster above. By CV's terms, DD got accepted to 3 reaches, denied at a hard target, WL at another hard target, in at 2 targets, in at 2 safeties and denied at a safety.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Poster above. By CV's terms, DD got accepted to 3 reaches, denied at a hard target, WL at another hard target, in at 2 targets, in at 2 safeties and denied at a safety.

TY for the breakdown! That’s… unexpected. I hope that means she had some choices she really loved!

[Anonymous]

We we thought it was more accurate than naviance and the counselor at our high school. But that does not say much.

The break down overall for us made sense-

2 reaches (1 waitlist, 1 rejection), 4 hard targets (1 admission no merit/aid), 1 waitlist, 2 rejections), 6 targets ( 2 rejections, 1 waitlist, 3 acceptances (1 with more merit), 4 safeties (3 acceptances with merit and 1 waitlist - Va Tech in state).

College Vine does not account for major or the hot school. For example, rumor has it that Northeastern had their acceptance rate drop to single digits this year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Poster above. By CV's terms, DD got accepted to 3 reaches, denied at a hard target, WL at another hard target, in at 2 targets, in at 2 safeties and denied at a safety.

TY for the breakdown! That’s… unexpected. I hope that means she had some choices she really loved!

Indeed! Though she is a bit of a Debbie Downer and is all worried about making the wring choice. I'm like no girl. These are all winners!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Poster above. By CV's terms, DD got accepted to 3 reaches, denied at a hard target, WL at another hard target, in at 2 targets, in at 2 safeties and denied at a safety.

Forgot to add denied at a reach as well.

[Anonymous]

Related: how useful are the College Factual rankings -- they seem to be more focused than the big rankings, like ranking by major and by region, etc.

For example, here is the Computer science ranking:
https://www.collegefactual.com/majors/computer-information-sciences/computer-science/rankings/top-ranked/bachelors-degrees/

Are these more useful tools than the ones that try to lump in apples, oranges, and bananas?