I agree with you. But there is one fact that's often omitted in these discussions. The overall quality of life, state of nutrition and access to medicine and healthcare and sanitation in many of these places where access to vaccination is also limited. Same was true in first world before the overall advancement in medicine, access to sanitation, antibiotics and many new antiviral medications and supplements. |
I'm still having a hard time pinning down what you are saying. So are you saying that Autism is more or less constant in presentation over time, but because of more inclusive diagnostic criteria, the numbers are increasing? If that is what you are saying, then I would disagree with that for a number of reasons. One being that if it were only increasing because of criteria, then the rate should increase more or less in stair-step fashion. Being that every change in criteria leads to a sudden reclassification of cases, and then stasis within that criteria. But that's not what we see with autism, we see the rate going up year after year, even when no criteria has changed between those years. |
No. I think I may have some greater understanding of whatever thought process is going on here, though. |
Fear. People who fall for anti-vaxxer BS tend to be dim. They’ve always struggled, and they are scared their kids will struggle like them. Along come the wellness grifters who make them feel smart and special. Not short bus special, but real special. They’d do anything to feel smart and special. And so they fall for the scam, and they kill or disable their kids. Nature is brutal, and she is relentless. I have to believe this is part of the programming, how we keep human populations in check. |
PP who is still having trouble pinning things down, what do you think the bolded below means?
Does "a big difference" mean exactly the same as "the ONLY difference" to you? Why? |
There is no mechanism by which “sanitation” prevents someone from getting measles, because it is an airborne virus. It is not yellow fever. And let’s just say when it comes to viruses, we haven’t managed to figure out flu or norovirus. Measles is more virulent than either one of those. |
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Diagnostic substitution explains a lot of the autism "epidemic."
We were told my son had autism when he actually had a language disorder and intellectual disability. |
Yes, it's certainly multifactorial. Something that hasn't been discussed yet is it went from a diagnosis that was: 1. Heavily stigmatized 2. Had no effective interventions 3. Was not supported with any sort of financial scaffolding whatsoever 4. Essentially was a condemnation of your parenting (remember "refrigerator mothers?") To something with: 1. Less stigma than previously 2. Proven Early Intervention improvement in outcome 3. Comes with supports including (but certainly not limited to) disability support 4. Is understood not to be primarily driven by parenting faults |
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^^PPS, because apparently that is necessary now -- I am NOT stating that the rejection of the "refrigerator mother theory" is the ONLY reason we have more diagnoses of autism. Multifactorial means "involving or dependent on a number of factors, especially genetic or environmental factors" -- and that number is not one. |
This is not how that works. Most disease including autism are based on a liability threshold model. Above a certain threshold you have the disease and below the threshold you don’t.Highly polygenic behavioral traits typically follow a normal distribution curve. Lowering the diagnostic threshold creates a non-linear increase in the number of people diagnosed. Here’s an example of how diagnostic rates could change dramatically with no change in the underlying prevalence of the disease. I’m 1970s/1980’s 1/5,000 kids were diagnosed with autism. Assume during this time period awareness was very low and only 2% of people had ever heard of this disorder and would pursue testing if the kid were having issues. The diagnostic criteria were more stringent and only 1/100 kids meet the criteria. The diagnosed incidence if this autism would be 1/5000. Now today awareness is much higher and 75% of people have heard of autism and would be willing to test their kids for It if there are behavioral issues. The diagnostic criteria has also become more permissive to cover people with milder austistic behavioral tendencies. Now 1/25 kids meet the criteria for autism. The population frequency of this diagnosis would 1/33 today. |
It's actually not real. It was previously due to the recommendations to have babies and young children avoid peanut exposure. That, it turned out, made allergies more likely and also worse. This changed in 2017 and the rate of peanut allergies has decreased dramatically. https://publications.aap.org/aapnews/news/33629/Study-Peanut-allergies-in-children-drop-after?autologincheck=redirected |
I'll take a stab: Smallpox tended to be deadlier in the American colonies than in continental Europe, where innoculation was more controversial (trying to interfere with the will of God); royalty innoculating themselves and their own children helped get people to accept it there. In the 1800s, diptheria epidemics were common. Rural cemeteries in the midwest often have stones with the names of 4 or more children to died within a short time of each other in the 1880s to 1890s. When ditheria serum, and eventually an actual vaccine, were developed plenty of people knew how devasting the disease could be. Tetanus was sometimes called 4th of July tetanus, because fireworks injuries led to tetanus cases around the 4th that equaled the number of cases the rest of the entire year. People had seen those diseases and the havoc they created. Military use of vaccines probably also helped with public acceptance. And the midcentury polio outbreaks were so heavily publicized, and the vaccine campaign heavily promoted, nobody would question it. And public schools required it. But then, fueled in large part by the religious right, homeschooling became legal where it hadn't been and became much more widespread. Easier to opt out. And if you were questioning what the government was teaching your children, vaccines were something the govt inflicted. The 1976 swine flu had major effects as well. Nobody knew if it would be as bad as the 1918 flu but the earliest case--a soldier who got sick one day and was dead by the next--looked a lot like the 1918 epidemic. The decision to vaccinate the entire country was a difficult one to make, especially since a massive vaccine program would 1) inevitable have some side effects and 2) would inevitably by followed by coincidental medical problems and deaths that would have happened anyway,(besides which, if successful people would think there would never have been a serious epidemic anyway). The pharma companies needed to be indemnified before they would participate. Some cases of what were thought to be (but weren't) guillane-barre following vaccination led to monitoring for the disease (which on later analysis did not seem to increase at all due to vaccination but at the time was thought to be an effect in some cases). So then an entire apparatus--VAERS plus legal proceedings--had to be set up to deal with the onslaught of claims and to figure out which may have been due to the vaccine. Since VAERS is an open reporting system, people believe it is reporting actual side effects of vaccines rather than just stuff that happened after being vaccinated, or stuff claimed to have happened. Then we had hep B for children, and people don't like the idea of something they regard as sexually transmitted being a reason to vaccinate kids. And the autism claims. We also have the mercury in dental fillings leaking over the the vaccines/autism "link". HPV vaccine being given to teen girls--offends Christian morals (govt is trying to get our daughters to have sex). In the course of the decades, we learn about WWII soldiers deliberately exposed to radiation, the CIA LSD experiments, the Tuskegee experiments, Agent Orange, all the things government does not disclose when it's happening. Another factor might just be that once we had effective antibiotics, deaths due to secondary infections from a particular disease dropped, so any disease became less dangerous. |
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Our country continues to backslide under Trump
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/02/well/measles-elimination-status-us.html Meeting on U.S. Measles Status Is Delayed Until November The decision to revoke the country’s elimination status would now likely come after the U.S. midterm elections, experts noted. A highly anticipated meeting to review the United States’ measles elimination status has been postponed until November. An international panel of experts had invited the United States to a meeting in April to determine whether the ongoing spread of measles would cost the country its status, a designation granted to nations that have not had continuous spread of measles for more than a year. But U.S. health officials asked the panel, convened by the Pan American Health Organization, to delay the review until the organization’s annual meeting in November, said Andrew Nixon, a spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services. He said the agency needed more time to analyze its measles data. Losing measles elimination status would mark a grim and embarrassing moment for the nation’s public health: The United States achieved elimination status in 2000 after a nearly 40-year campaign to promote the vaccine, and has maintained that status every year since. |
Remember when Trump thought if you didn't test for Covid, you didn't have it? |
It comes down to this: people have had the luxury to put their egos and ignorance first without having to pay the price for it. Enough people did the right thing that the weirdos could coast on their nonsense. That time is over now. It’s a shame some people have to learn the hard way from the lessons of the past, but in many ways we’re even worse off now than we were before. The older doctors who would have known the danger signs of complications and had experience with moving quickly have retired and been replaced with doctors that have never seen these diseases nor their complications in practice. It is going to be a very, very steep learning curve. And hospital bills routinely bankrupt families for generations now. If you’re poor, you might as well keep your kid home to die, because you can’t afford for him to come out of it disabled for life. |