Stupid response, truly. A 99.85% kid could: - have a physical health issue - family issue - mental health issue - get distracted w/significant other - not be well rounded enough Tons of things could derail a gifted kid… A below a 95% could - become passionate about something - be talented in other ways (visual art, performing art, writing) - be incredibly dedicated to studies - have nepotism help with ECs And tons of things can lift up a smart kid. |
Assuming ~550 kids A 99.85 percentile kid is going to soar. =~ barely 1 kid !!! A 99.7 percentile kid is going to be challenged but will thrive =~ 2 kid!!! (including one from above) A 95th percentile kid =~ 28 kids !!! (including 3 from above) Ah, no there are definitely more kids who soar without struggling or thrive from the challenge
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Purely from college admissions perspective and subjectively from our experience
1. Top 10% of TJ kids have a high chance of being admitted to T20 2. The next 10% (80th to 90th percentile) have a slightly better or about the same college outcomes as base HS, T20 is unlikely but do well in the rest of T50 3. For remaining 80% they would be shut out of T30 and it is likely they would have had a better outcome from base HS |
These are what we call exceptions that prove the rule. And, I didn't say under 95th percentile = failure. I said it could lead to failure. |
This is overly pessimistic. The student at the 50th percentile probably would not have done much better than UVA at their base school and that is about where they will end up from TJ. The bottom half will do worse purely from a college admissions perspective. |
550 kids is how many kids at TJ. There are about 30,000 kids in each grade level in the catchment area from which TJ kids are selected. That means there are about 45 kids in the catchment area that are in the 99.85 percentile. Not all of them are going to TJ but enough of them are that the number is greater than 1. There are about 1500 kids in the catchment area at or above the 95th percentile. More than enough to fill TJ but we don't do that. |
You think 50% at TJ for class GPA will get into UVA? |
Shit. You're right. 4.4 is probably top 20% Still, the previous poster was overly pessimistic. |
You're just wrong. The numbers of matriculations to elite schools blows this argument out of the water, to say nothing of acceptances. |
I don't know about that. Pre-2025, sure. With less than a third of the class reporting there were like 50 Ivy+ admissions and I know several other HYPSM admits that didn't post in 2024 but this last year? It was less than half the prior year. I wouldn't be surprised if they had 10% Ivy+ |
All your numbers are so wrong, not even in the ballpark. |
141 on this page is less than a third of 480 https://www.instagram.com/tj2024destinations/ There were about 50 Ivy+ and i know that it does not represent all the Ivy+ The 2025 page has less than half the reported Ivy+ as the 2023 class https://www.instagram.com/tj2025destinations/ so assuming a similar level of participation by Ivy+ students, there is a huge drop. |
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For the class of ‘22, TJ’s class of ‘23 school profile lists where 10 or more seniors (per college) were headed:
https://tjhsst.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/inline-files/2022-23%20TJHSST%20Profile_0.pdf Through an annual survey of all seniors, 99 percent of TJHSST students in the class of 2022 reported they would be attending a four-year college or university as their post secondary plan intention. The list below reflects colleges or universities where 10 or more TJHSST students in the Class of 2022 reported a decision to attend. Carnegie Mellon University College of William & Mary Cornell University George Mason University Purdue University-Main Campus University of Chicago University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign University of Maryland-College Park University of Michigan-Ann Arbor University of Pittsburgh-Pittsburgh Campus University of Virginia-Main Campus Virginia Commonwealth University Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University So the above was at least 130 students. —- Then TJ changed their profile so it lists all schools where kids are going. Very interesting change because it takes up a massive amount of room on the school profile: https://tjhsst.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/inline-files/TJHSST%20School%20Profile%2025-26%20V.2._0.pdf |