Are we in a housing bubble?

[Anonymous]

Perhaps, but do as you please with this article.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-march-2025-drop-mortage-rates-1f9a6047

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:


DC is becoming less of an anomaly as far as the economy goes. Especially this year.


What do you mean? DC is a bustling capital city, and usually has rising housing prices in anything but a recession (local, national, or international). It is not an anomaly. Every capital (or major) city is like this.

RTO is probably a short term trend. Long term people will most likely be able to WFH. We have these things called computers and the internet. There is no real need to be at a physical office all of the time in order to accomplish work tasks. Plus traffic is terrible and roads are expensive. Companies are offering WFH in order to attract top talent. As the federal government pays less and benefits are in decline, WFH will be a way they can attract workers (if they can attract workers at all). I just don't see how DC is a bustling city, especially if contract work is also cut.

To be fair, even private companies are doing RTO a lot now.

DP. There are very, very few private companies that have five day a week in office requirements. I can’t even think of one. Even being able to WFH one day a week influences housing choices.

[Anonymous]

Weirdly enough I’ve seen prices go down in some places.

[Anonymous]

I'm a homeowner in D.C. and have no plans to move any time soon — which is to say, I'd be perfectly happy if prices only keep going up — but a lot of people in this thread seem seriously delusional about the housing market. There's no way it's true that home prices will only ever go up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Underpriced given coming tariffs.

How would the tariffs make housing underpriced? The tariffs are likely to drive the economy into recession. Not typically good for home values.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:


DC is becoming less of an anomaly as far as the economy goes. Especially this year.


What do you mean? DC is a bustling capital city, and usually has rising housing prices in anything but a recession (local, national, or international). It is not an anomaly. Every capital (or major) city is like this.

RTO is probably a short term trend. Long term people will most likely be able to WFH. We have these things called computers and the internet. There is no real need to be at a physical office all of the time in order to accomplish work tasks. Plus traffic is terrible and roads are expensive. Companies are offering WFH in order to attract top talent. As the federal government pays less and benefits are in decline, WFH will be a way they can attract workers (if they can attract workers at all). I just don't see how DC is a bustling city, especially if contract work is also cut.

To be fair, even private companies are doing RTO a lot now.

DP. There are very, very few private companies that have five day a week in office requirements. I can’t even think of one. Even being able to WFH one day a week influences housing choices.

l know if more than one. Mine is 4 days. I could see choosing a long commute 1 or 2 days a week, not more than that, and many companies are 3+.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Underpriced given coming tariffs.

How would the tariffs make housing underpriced? The tariffs are likely to drive the economy into recession. Not typically good for home values.

Tariffs could have a paradoxical effect of increasing housing prices over time if it significantly reduces the production of new housing units.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


You can define a "bubble" however you want. Maybe the title of the thread should be "is there going to be a dip in housing prices?"

Given the tariffs and government downsizing efforts, I would think we are going to see a dip in that continuous line that you are talking about. I think that is what the thread question is about. I think people wonder about a dip and how long the dip might last. There is some instability right now.


PP you replied to. Words matter! A bubble burst does not equal a dip, for the reasons I explained above.

I agree that further out suburbs will see a softening of the market. DC and close-in suburbs of VA and MD, hmm... not right now. The current problem isn't recession (because there's isn't one right now), but deep uncertainty. People don't know whether they're coming or going. So I think it's more of a market freeze that we're seeing. Only the people who need to move are moving. If this administration continues on its suicidal mission to explode the global economy, then next year's spring market is going to crash, which isn't good for 99% of buyers, since these buyers will be out of jobs or financially stressed in other ways. If there's a gradual government spending course correction and easements on the worst of the tariffs, which I expect, because not even the crazies want to be blamed for the worst recession in living memory, then we might not see much, if any, consequence on the DC real estate market.

We are in the beginning of a recession. We will probably know by September. It takes two quarters of negative growth to declare a recession. Our economy is shrinking right now mainly because of this deep uncertainty you are talking about.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Underpriced given coming tariffs.

How would the tariffs make housing underpriced? The tariffs are likely to drive the economy into recession. Not typically good for home values.

Tariffs could have a paradoxical effect of increasing housing prices over time if it significantly reduces the production of new housing units.

This is pure speculation. While we're in a speculative spirit, tariffs could also lead to more unemployment which would lower labor rates, which in turn could spur development and cause housing prices to come down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


Tariffs could have a paradoxical effect of increasing housing prices over time if it significantly reduces the production of new housing units.


This is pure speculation. While we're in a speculative spirit, tariffs could also lead to more unemployment which would lower labor rates, which in turn could spur development and cause housing prices to come down.

+1 You don't have to go far to find someone who is worried about losing their job. In my immediate family there are two people worried right now today. One works for a Chinese company and the other one is funded by an industry that is about to lose their Chinese customers.

[Anonymous]

I dont think so, bubble means burst and significant drops like in 2008. we probably will have moderate decreases that will disappear once rates go back down.

I think RTO is here to stay for at least the next decade. Companies will probably do more of a hybrid but you still will need to live near large city/suburban areas and not buy that off the grid location in the middle of nowhere.

[Anonymous]

I dont think so, bubble means burst and significant drops like in 2008. we probably will have moderate decreases that will disappear once rates go back down.

I think RTO is here to stay for at least the next decade. Companies will probably do more of a hybrid but you still will need to live near large city/suburban areas and not buy that off the grid location in the middle of nowhere.

LOL. There is a lot of housing that is not off the grid and not in the middle of nowhere that is much cheaper than the DMV.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I hear differing opinions. however, it seems at a glance we are. In 6 years a 460k home has turned into a 515k home, or a 650k home a 775k home, what do you guys think?

Not sure where you pulled these numbers out of your butt.

Those increases would be less than inflation.

[Anonymous]

Yes. Mind boggling anyone says no...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes. Mind boggling anyone says no...

Of course. I think there are a lot of Compass real estate agents posting here. Lots of time on their hands this spring.