Are we in a housing bubble?

[Anonymous]

I hear differing opinions. however, it seems at a glance we are. In 6 years a 460k home has turned into a 515k home, or a 650k home a 775k home, what do you guys think?

[Anonymous]

Yes

[Anonymous]

460K to 515K in six years seems like reasonable appreciation. Same with 650Kt o 775K. If you had said the home prices were nearly doubling, I would agree with you. In some neighborhoods they have doubled, but that is a function of supply (limited) and demand (steady to increasing) relative to expectations about schools. To that last point, there are plenty of houses, just not in the neighborhoods where most people want to educate their kids.

[Anonymous]

No. I don't know why this myth is so persistent.

Real estate prices in and around metropoles all over the world, barring Act of God / force majeure, will never go down. Even in the 2008 recession, prices around DC either stagnated, or if they went down, didn't go down for long.

I've been on DCUM for more than 15 years. Every year, hopeful and ignorant posters ask this question. The answer is no for DC and inner suburbs.

If you're in the outer suburbs, on the other hand, yes, you will see greater fluctuations tied to the health of the economy.

[Anonymous]

No. I don't know why this myth is so persistent.

Real estate prices in and around metropoles all over the world, barring Act of God / force majeure, will never go down. Even in the 2008 recession, prices around DC either stagnated, or if they went down, didn't go down for long.

I've been on DCUM for more than 15 years. Every year, hopeful and ignorant posters ask this question. The answer is no for DC and inner suburbs.

If you're in the outer suburbs, on the other hand, yes, you will see greater fluctuations tied to the health of the economy.

DC is becoming less of an anomaly as far as the economy goes. Especially this year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

No. I don't know why this myth is so persistent.

Real estate prices in and around metropoles all over the world, barring Act of God / force majeure, will never go down. Even in the 2008 recession, prices around DC either stagnated, or if they went down, didn't go down for long.

I've been on DCUM for more than 15 years. Every year, hopeful and ignorant posters ask this question. The answer is no for DC and inner suburbs.

If you're in the outer suburbs, on the other hand, yes, you will see greater fluctuations tied to the health of the economy.

DC is becoming less of an anomaly as far as the economy goes. Especially this year.

What do you mean? DC is a bustling capital city, and usually has rising housing prices in anything but a recession (local, national, or international). It is not an anomaly. Every capital (or major) city is like this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No. I don't know why this myth is so persistent.

Real estate prices in and around metropoles all over the world, barring Act of God / force majeure, will never go down. Even in the 2008 recession, prices around DC either stagnated, or if they went down, didn't go down for long.

I've been on DCUM for more than 15 years. Every year, hopeful and ignorant posters ask this question. The answer is no for DC and inner suburbs.

If you're in the outer suburbs, on the other hand, yes, you will see greater fluctuations tied to the health of the economy.

Define inner vs outer suburbs in this case.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

No. I don't know why this myth is so persistent.

Real estate prices in and around metropoles all over the world, barring Act of God / force majeure, will never go down. Even in the 2008 recession, prices around DC either stagnated, or if they went down, didn't go down for long.

I've been on DCUM for more than 15 years. Every year, hopeful and ignorant posters ask this question. The answer is no for DC and inner suburbs.

If you're in the outer suburbs, on the other hand, yes, you will see greater fluctuations tied to the health of the economy.

DC is becoming less of an anomaly as far as the economy goes. Especially this year.

What do you mean? DC is a bustling capital city, and usually has rising housing prices in anything but a recession (local, national, or international). It is not an anomaly. Every capital (or major) city is like this.

I think they’re talking about federal job cuts as federal jobs largely insulated dc from the fallout in 2008.

[Anonymous]

No.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


DC is becoming less of an anomaly as far as the economy goes. Especially this year.


What do you mean? DC is a bustling capital city, and usually has rising housing prices in anything but a recession (local, national, or international). It is not an anomaly. Every capital (or major) city is like this.

RTO is probably a short term trend. Long term people will most likely be able to WFH. We have these things called computers and the internet. There is no real need to be at a physical office all of the time in order to accomplish work tasks. Plus traffic is terrible and roads are expensive. Companies are offering WFH in order to attract top talent. As the federal government pays less and benefits are in decline, WFH will be a way they can attract workers (if they can attract workers at all). I just don't see how DC is a bustling city, especially if contract work is also cut.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:


DC is becoming less of an anomaly as far as the economy goes. Especially this year.


What do you mean? DC is a bustling capital city, and usually has rising housing prices in anything but a recession (local, national, or international). It is not an anomaly. Every capital (or major) city is like this.

RTO is probably a short term trend. Long term people will most likely be able to WFH. We have these things called computers and the internet. There is no real need to be at a physical office all of the time in order to accomplish work tasks. Plus traffic is terrible and roads are expensive. Companies are offering WFH in order to attract top talent. As the federal government pays less and benefits are in decline, WFH will be a way they can attract workers (if they can attract workers at all). I just don't see how DC is a bustling city, especially if contract work is also cut.

To be fair, even private companies are doing RTO a lot now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


DC is becoming less of an anomaly as far as the economy goes. Especially this year.


What do you mean? DC is a bustling capital city, and usually has rising housing prices in anything but a recession (local, national, or international). It is not an anomaly. Every capital (or major) city is like this.

We are going into a recession. So, yes, we are in a housing bubble right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


RTO is probably a short term trend. Long term people will most likely be able to WFH. We have these things called computers and the internet. There is no real need to be at a physical office all of the time in order to accomplish work tasks. Plus traffic is terrible and roads are expensive. Companies are offering WFH in order to attract top talent. As the federal government pays less and benefits are in decline, WFH will be a way they can attract workers (if they can attract workers at all). I just don't see how DC is a bustling city, especially if contract work is also cut.

To be fair, even private companies are doing RTO a lot now.

It kind of depends. In a lot of cases highly experienced employees can negotiate for WFH and get it.

[Anonymous]

The USG was spending a boatload in recent years to prop up a declining economy. The economy has been stagnating for years because of corporate consolidation and increasing financial inequality but you didn't see it because of high USG spending. The high spending is what caused the higher house prices in DC. There will be a rapid collapse but you won't see it until next year.

[Anonymous]

No one knows. My hypothesis is boomer wealth + millennials will keep the housing market afloat due to population size / demand / existing wealth. I do think we'll see a catastrophic crash in ~20 years when the boomers die + millennials retire - based on current population forecasts, we won't have enough people in the younger generations to absorb all of the housing supply near employment centers that will flood the market. Immigration could change this though so who knows.