How much will Biden lose by?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Another thing that I believe contributing to low numbers for Biden is having Kamala Harris on the ticket.

Any objective, sane person can see the decline in Biden. The odds are likely that he could not last another 4.5 years. Harris is a liability, and voters know it.

VPs shouldn't have to be a determining factor. We have two likely major party nominees that are extraordinarily weak as candidates to the lead the country until 2029. That is the problem we should be focusing on so not to have it repeated in four years. Harris is no more an asset or liability than any other VP we've had in modern history. Let's not put the blame of the 2024 POTUS election debacle on her.

No, the problem we should be focusing on is that one of political parties has been taken over by a compromised malignant narcissist who is close to sundowning and the only person who comes close to beating him is the incumbent president. Get rid of the compromised guy who wants to be a dictator and everything else falls into place.

Giving Trump even a fraction of the ‘credit’ for our problems shows serious delusion. The delusions of the Democrats are why they struggle to defeat/defang ANYONE in a meaningful way. But for Democratic in$ider$, the ineffectuality is the point: it keeps the gravy trains coming or, and this possibility might be even worse, it is their habit after recent decades and they can’t even see the challenge to their own interests, let alone those of their constituents.

The democrats have won basically every meaningful political race since 2018.

Maybe your analysis is the one that is flawed?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Another thing that I believe contributing to low numbers for Biden is having Kamala Harris on the ticket.

Any objective, sane person can see the decline in Biden. The odds are likely that he could not last another 4.5 years. Harris is a liability, and voters know it.

VPs shouldn't have to be a determining factor. We have two likely major party nominees that are extraordinarily weak as candidates to the lead the country until 2029. That is the problem we should be focusing on so not to have it repeated in four years. Harris is no more an asset or liability than any other VP we've had in modern history. Let's not put the blame of the 2024 POTUS election debacle on her.

No, the problem we should be focusing on is that one of political parties has been taken over by a compromised malignant narcissist who is close to sundowning and the only person who comes close to beating him is the incumbent president. Get rid of the compromised guy who wants to be a dictator and everything else falls into place.

Giving Trump even a fraction of the ‘credit’ for our problems shows serious delusion. The delusions of the Democrats are why they struggle to defeat/defang ANYONE in a meaningful way. But for Democratic in$ider$, the ineffectuality is the point: it keeps the gravy trains coming or, and this possibility might be even worse, it is their habit after recent decades and they can’t even see the challenge to their own interests, let alone those of their constituents.

The democrats have won basically every meaningful political race since 2018.

Maybe your analysis is the one that is flawed?

That’s why Trump, the guy who gave you your biggest heart attacks, is about to take your bacon…again!

[Anonymous]

Doesn’t matter who wins in November. A record number of Americans will reject the outcome. Political and social chaos will ensue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

Can you explain more? Is this still true for 2024?

Sure. YouGov's 2020 poll of likely and registered voters for the Economist between Oct 31 and Nov 2 had Biden up 9-10 points. In 2020, the vote difference was 4.5% This is after well-known problems in 2016! We're not picking up a noticeable percent of people who could sway the election. Add in the wildcard of RFK Jr. and this ~4.5 (or higher) could make things worse.

DP. Maybe I’m a bit slow but I don’t understand how this answers the question. Why are current polls under reporting Trump voters and a class of independents?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

Look at the vote difference point she makes.

Can you explain more? Is this still true for 2024?

Sure. YouGov's 2020 poll of likely and registered voters for the Economist between Oct 31 and Nov 2 had Biden up 9-10 points. In 2020, the vote difference was 4.5% This is after well-known problems in 2016! We're not picking up a noticeable percent of people who could sway the election. Add in the wildcard of RFK Jr. and this ~4.5 (or higher) could make things worse.

DP. Maybe I’m a bit slow but I don’t understand how this answers the question. Why are current polls under reporting Trump voters and a class of independents?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

Can you explain more? Is this still true for 2024?

Sure. YouGov's 2020 poll of likely and registered voters for the Economist between Oct 31 and Nov 2 had Biden up 9-10 points. In 2020, the vote difference was 4.5% This is after well-known problems in 2016! We're not picking up a noticeable percent of people who could sway the election. Add in the wildcard of RFK Jr. and this ~4.5 (or higher) could make things worse.

DP. Maybe I’m a bit slow but I don’t understand how this answers the question. Why are current polls under reporting Trump voters and a class of independents?

Look at the vote difference point she makes

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

LOL. If only pollsters would read the polls that show the vast majority of Dems support a ceasefire as of two months ago, so probably higher now. They even broke out Jewish Dems and Muslim Dems and both by a far majority favor a ceasefire.

There was another poll that showed more than 60% of voters do not like the way Biden is handling the conflict.

But, sure carry on with the head scratching.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:To the pollster: what impact is the chaos on college campuses to Biden?

Hard to tell. It could peter away. If it spreads, it could feed into Biden's law and order vulnerability.

You did also see the article that Morehouse is bracing for protests at Biden’s commencement there. “Not a single person I know is happy about this,” from a quote about how many students are refusing to be on stage with him.

Democrats can see the forest for their own blindness. PP was right that the Dems aren’t saving us and longtime, stalwart Dems growing tired of the BS.

[Anonymous]

The democrats don't fix anything. They nurse problems along and create more of them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

LOL. If only pollsters would read the polls that show the vast majority of Dems support a ceasefire as of two months ago, so probably higher now. They even broke out Jewish Dems and Muslim Dems and both by a far majority favor a ceasefire.

There was another poll that showed more than 60% of voters do not like the way Biden is handling the conflict.

But, sure carry on with the head scratching.

What kind of monster wouldn't support a ceasefire? I'm surprised anyone said otherwise. But still has nothing to do with the 2024 US Presidential election, because both candidates are the SAME on the Israel/Gaza topic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

LOL. If only pollsters would read the polls that show the vast majority of Dems support a ceasefire as of two months ago, so probably higher now. They even broke out Jewish Dems and Muslim Dems and both by a far majority favor a ceasefire.

There was another poll that showed more than 60% of voters do not like the way Biden is handling the conflict.

But, sure carry on with the head scratching.

Everyone supports a ceasefire in the abstract. If you were to ask people do you support Hamas releasing the hostages, I'm pretty sure you'd find near universal agreement there too - except among many of the protesters.

The student protesters with their incoherent demands are a fringe. Yes, they have a real issue, but just like the protesters for Occupy Wall Street and BLM they are marginalizing the very issue they care about. Slogans like "Defund the police" and "From the river to the sea" make it impossible for the mainstream to support the progressive left. By election day, Gaza will be a non-issue for mainstream America. Nothing more than a little background noise.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

LOL. If only pollsters would read the polls that show the vast majority of Dems support a ceasefire as of two months ago, so probably higher now. They even broke out Jewish Dems and Muslim Dems and both by a far majority favor a ceasefire.

There was another poll that showed more than 60% of voters do not like the way Biden is handling the conflict.

But, sure carry on with the head scratching.

+1
And this pattern can be repeated across so many issues. Biden and most senior Democrats have their fingerprints on so many disasters (Iraq, GWOT, GFC, mass incarceration, and even in Biden’s case, most Reagan-era crap), but they never acknowledge that and/or pay much of a price. It’s crappy politics and it comes from the top, not from the voters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

LOL. If only pollsters would read the polls that show the vast majority of Dems support a ceasefire as of two months ago, so probably higher now. They even broke out Jewish Dems and Muslim Dems and both by a far majority favor a ceasefire.

There was another poll that showed more than 60% of voters do not like the way Biden is handling the conflict.

But, sure carry on with the head scratching.

+100. The entire Democratic establishment is ignoring the glaring issue that the Israel/Gaza issue is important to a lot of people. I am a NYS voter, a moderate Democrat (i.e., not a progressive) and have voted straight ticket D my entire life. Protecting reproductive rights is my most important voting issue. Demographically I’m someone Biden is probably taking for granted (Asian female professional, in the 29-35 age range).

And yet I will be withholding my vote for Biden over Gaza. Obviously I understand that Trump is worse on this issue and every other issue, but my intention in doing this is to cut into his margins in NY to make the point to the Democratic Party that they’ll lose voters over this and that they need to take a more nuanced position on Israel. What we are doing now is disgusting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

LOL. If only pollsters would read the polls that show the vast majority of Dems support a ceasefire as of two months ago, so probably higher now. They even broke out Jewish Dems and Muslim Dems and both by a far majority favor a ceasefire.

There was another poll that showed more than 60% of voters do not like the way Biden is handling the conflict.

But, sure carry on with the head scratching.

+100. The entire Democratic establishment is ignoring the glaring issue that the Israel/Gaza issue is important to a lot of people. I am a NYS voter, a moderate Democrat (i.e., not a progressive) and have voted straight ticket D my entire life. Protecting reproductive rights is my most important voting issue. Demographically I’m someone Biden is probably taking for granted (Asian female professional, in the 29-35 age range).

And yet I will be withholding my vote for Biden over Gaza. Obviously I understand that Trump is worse on this issue and every other issue, but my intention in doing this is to cut into his margins in NY to make the point to the Democratic Party that they’ll lose voters over this and that they need to take a more nuanced position on Israel. What we are doing now is disgusting.

How do you feel about LGBTQ issues?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm a Democratic pollster. Been analyzing polls for the DNC for 7 years now. TBH, we're all worried. Very worried. We know that our polls underreport Trump voters and independents who lean R. Biden's low approval numbers aren't budging and we have no f'ing clue why not. For a while, we thought it was a messaging problem but his numbers just aren't moving as we approach the general.

LOL. If only pollsters would read the polls that show the vast majority of Dems support a ceasefire as of two months ago, so probably higher now. They even broke out Jewish Dems and Muslim Dems and both by a far majority favor a ceasefire.

There was another poll that showed more than 60% of voters do not like the way Biden is handling the conflict.

But, sure carry on with the head scratching.

+100. The entire Democratic establishment is ignoring the glaring issue that the Israel/Gaza issue is important to a lot of people. I am a NYS voter, a moderate Democrat (i.e., not a progressive) and have voted straight ticket D my entire life. Protecting reproductive rights is my most important voting issue. Demographically I’m someone Biden is probably taking for granted (Asian female professional, in the 29-35 age range).

And yet I will be withholding my vote for Biden over Gaza. Obviously I understand that Trump is worse on this issue and every other issue, but my intention in doing this is to cut into his margins in NY to make the point to the Democratic Party that they’ll lose voters over this and that they need to take a more nuanced position on Israel. What we are doing now is disgusting.

How do you feel about LGBTQ issues?

I’m the PP. I’m supportive of the LGBTQ community and am aligned with the general position of the party on upholding their human rights along with everyone else’s. I think people should use whatever bathroom they want. I am personally kind of skeptical about transgender women competing in women’s sports, and I think that some advocates for inclusive language go too far (“pregnant people”, for example), but that kind of stuff is not material to my vote.