Anybody else extremely depressed over real estate?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There could still be a recession and a price drop. No one knows what the market will do. Maybe all of us who bought in 2021 will be the depressed ones, no one knows for sure.

There's not enough homes for everyone who wants a house. We basically lost a decade of building activity from 2008-2018. You now have 4 generations actively buying homes, all competing with each other: Boomers, Gen X, Millennials, and eldest portion of Gen Z.

Our demographics don’t look good for housing. Refer to Japan. Generally good to own a home for 15-30 years, but I doubt anyone buying now sees the returns their parents got.

Demographics don't look good for housing in rural parts of this country. Those homes - many of which were paid for with VA loans and military pensions - are falling apart and will not be replaced.

They still can't build enough housing in Tokyo to sop up demand. Long term demand for housing in urban job centers will remain strong. US population is still rapidly urbanizing.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/269967/urbanization-in-the-united-states/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not all of us are paying cash. Remember that part about 2020-2022? It took an all cash over asking to get a house. Others truly needed another couple years to save for a down payment.

The attackers don’t like to think about that. They prefer to feel superior and smug and tell you you screwed up, unlike them.

[Anonymous]

yes - basically priced out of anything decent. our budget is like 350 tops.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One has to ask, how many of the posters now lamenting their failure to buy earlier didn’t buy because they thought prices would fall. Just last summer, this forum was filled with threads about how interest rate increases would bring prices down 20 percent or more. Trying to time the market is always a fool’s errand.

This 1000%. I remember those posters, gleefully stating that anyone who were buying at the “inflated” 2021 prices were dumb, stupid and foolish. Now, some of them are on this thread complaining and in need of understanding for missing the boat.

The gleeful posters could still be right. No one really knows. Just get a home you like that you can afford, don't think about trying to time the market

People on here have been calling this market a bubble since 2012. At some point you need to give it up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One has to ask, how many of the posters now lamenting their failure to buy earlier didn’t buy because they thought prices would fall. Just last summer, this forum was filled with threads about how interest rate increases would bring prices down 20 percent or more. Trying to time the market is always a fool’s errand.

This 1000%. I remember those posters, gleefully stating that anyone who were buying at the “inflated” 2021 prices were dumb, stupid and foolish. Now, some of them are on this thread complaining and in need of understanding for missing the boat.

The gleeful posters could still be right. No one really knows. Just get a home you like that you can afford, don't think about trying to time the market

People on here have been calling this market a bubble since 2012. At some point you need to give it up.

A broken clock is right twice a day.

On a side note another nugget of "wisdom" from DCUM is to just buy the house nobody wants (including you!) because it has "cosmetic" problems. Cosmetic lol. My good friend did this and thought she was being so clever. But that house has proven to be a massive money pitt, starting with major foundation issues.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One has to ask, how many of the posters now lamenting their failure to buy earlier didn’t buy because they thought prices would fall. Just last summer, this forum was filled with threads about how interest rate increases would bring prices down 20 percent or more. Trying to time the market is always a fool’s errand.

This 1000%. I remember those posters, gleefully stating that anyone who were buying at the “inflated” 2021 prices were dumb, stupid and foolish. Now, some of them are on this thread complaining and in need of understanding for missing the boat.

+1 Some posters here just look for excuses to go on the attack. There were legitimate reasons why someone might not have bought in 2021 when prices were much higher and many experts told us it was transitory.

Sorry, your tried to time the market and got burnt. Buy a home when you find one within your budget that meets most of your needs. Don’t wait for perfection. Last fall was a good time to buy because inventory increased in some neighborhoods locally.

If you have the flexibility, look at locations out west where buyer’s markets exist due to excess inventory.

Actually, I own two homes and made a lot of money buying and selling other homes, but I have compassion for people experiencing bad luck that negatively impacts their lives.

When one affirmatively decides not to buy because one believes prices will fall, that has nothing to do with luck.

[Anonymous]

Hello!

I am in the same boat as a lot of people looking for a house. After getting divorced it took awhile to get back on my feet financially and I finally got some money saved and started looking for a house right as it was exploding.

I thought that I would wait and let the market cool down and about that time the Pan hit and it went parabolic.

With over a decade of super low rates and huge Fiscal spending topped off with the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing programs with Trillions pumped into the economy its no wonder the prices of assets have gone up, but really how you should look at it is, the purchasing power of your money has gone down. The more the Government and FED prints the less your money is worth, it as simple as that.

I have saved up enough to purchase a house and am waiting on the sidelines to see what the FED is going to do. So far FED Chair Powell is doing the right thing and keep rates higher for longer and have removed about 1.5 Trillion from the ecommny. Once we have a recession the FED will reverse course and start easing again and then you have a small window of about 1 to 2 years to go out and deploy your cash to buy a house because after the prices will start going back up again, or you money will start losing value again.

Here is a short video I had make from all the years of studying trying to figure out what the heck was going on, why did all home prices just start going up all at the same time and why we have so much inflation.
https://youtu.be/CqyPd0TifKQ

Good luck everyone looking for a house! This bubble will burst just like all the other bubbles have.

-John

I will leave you with a short quote:

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless" -Thomas Jefferson

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hello!

I am in the same boat as a lot of people looking for a house. After getting divorced it took awhile to get back on my feet financially and I finally got some money saved and started looking for a house right as it was exploding.

I thought that I would wait and let the market cool down and about that time the Pan hit and it went parabolic.

With over a decade of super low rates and huge Fiscal spending topped off with the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing programs with Trillions pumped into the economy its no wonder the prices of assets have gone up, but really how you should look at it is, the purchasing power of your money has gone down. The more the Government and FED prints the less your money is worth, it as simple as that.

I have saved up enough to purchase a house and am waiting on the sidelines to see what the FED is going to do. So far FED Chair Powell is doing the right thing and keep rates higher for longer and have removed about 1.5 Trillion from the ecommny. Once we have a recession the FED will reverse course and start easing again and then you have a small window of about 1 to 2 years to go out and deploy your cash to buy a house because after the prices will start going back up again, or you money will start losing value again.

Here is a short video I had make from all the years of studying trying to figure out what the heck was going on, why did all home prices just start going up all at the same time and why we have so much inflation.
https://youtu.be/CqyPd0TifKQ

Good luck everyone looking for a house! This bubble will burst just like all the other bubbles have.

-John

I will leave you with a short quote:

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless" -Thomas Jefferson

In all that time it took to make this comment and that video, you could have got a real job, made money, and saved it for a house. But no, you had to yap away and complain about the Fed (it’s the Fed, not the FED)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hello!

I am in the same boat as a lot of people looking for a house. After getting divorced it took awhile to get back on my feet financially and I finally got some money saved and started looking for a house right as it was exploding.

I thought that I would wait and let the market cool down and about that time the Pan hit and it went parabolic.

With over a decade of super low rates and huge Fiscal spending topped off with the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing programs with Trillions pumped into the economy its no wonder the prices of assets have gone up, but really how you should look at it is, the purchasing power of your money has gone down. The more the Government and FED prints the less your money is worth, it as simple as that.

I have saved up enough to purchase a house and am waiting on the sidelines to see what the FED is going to do. So far FED Chair Powell is doing the right thing and keep rates higher for longer and have removed about 1.5 Trillion from the ecommny. Once we have a recession the FED will reverse course and start easing again and then you have a small window of about 1 to 2 years to go out and deploy your cash to buy a house because after the prices will start going back up again, or you money will start losing value again.

Here is a short video I had make from all the years of studying trying to figure out what the heck was going on, why did all home prices just start going up all at the same time and why we have so much inflation.
https://youtu.be/CqyPd0TifKQ

Good luck everyone looking for a house! This bubble will burst just like all the other bubbles have.

-John

I will leave you with a short quote:

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless" -Thomas Jefferson

Thank you for a good analysis, John.
My concern is that when the rates are lowered, prices will go up. So if you believe that Fed will start easing again soon, then the best time is to buy now , at the lower price (I can't believe I am using those words LOL) and then re-finance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Middle aged first time buyer and I am practically suicidal over mistakes I made by not buying at what turned out to be the last possible time I could have afforded a nice house.

Same op same saved decades and now cant get my hands on anything.

[Anonymous]

"Thank you for a good analysis, John.
My concern is that when the rates are lowered, prices will go up. So if you believe that Fed will start easing again soon, then the best time is to buy now , at the lower price (I can't believe I am using those words LOL) and then re-finance."

Your welcome and yes they will go up but there is a lag from when the FED makes monetary policy changes, usually from 6 to 18 months. In the video I explained in detailed with charts and graphs from the FEDs website.

[Anonymous]

Same. Moved all the time for work and didn’t think we’d have to own and manage multiple properties for 20 years just to buy a decent home on triple the income once we changed careers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Same op same saved decades and now cant get my hands on anything.

I know, it sucks, I have saved up $300,000 and waiting on the side lines and see what the FED does, it is really in their hands.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also, people are only focused on appreciation, but they really aren't subtracting out all of the costs for repairs, maintenance, taxes, and insurance. You really aren't gaining that much equity when you blow $20k on a new roof, $10k on a new AC, $10k on masonry repairs, etc. Etc..it never ends.

Most people don't wind up having to spend 100k+ on maintenance and repairs on their home. Some do, but most don't. I think where people get themselves into trouble is constantly updating/upgrading. A lot of people these days buy a home and then instantly want to renovate the kitchen (even when it's only 10-15 years old), overhaul the landscaping and outdoor spaces, maybe do a bathroom or two. This is new. It used to be that you moved into a house and you just lived with it for the most part, or upgraded slowly as you went, until it was time to sell, and then you'd do any necessary renovations to make it marketable. Now it's flipped, and people will spend a lot (often with money they have to borrow) to make their house exactly what they want.

Then if they have to replace the HVAC system or the roof 10 years in, it's like "oh no, catastrophe." But that's because they were short sighted when they bought, not realizing that stuff happens with houses and it's way more important to be able to handle those maintenance items than to have an on trend backsplash or the perfect custom deck.

Uh are you a brand new homeowner? Or statistically incredibly lucky and oblivious to that? We’ve been in our house for 15 years and have definitely spent $100k on repairs and maintenance, and I assure you that sadly it did not involve a new kitchen or cute bathroom or any of the “sport” remodeling. Please come back after you really have replaced HVAC, roof, windows, appliances, basement flooding, had a tree fall and take out a fence, just for starters …

[Anonymous]

I also really regret not buying but at the time I just couldn’t imagine prices would keep going up. However, I hope you are exaggerating. Try to remember that there are many things to appreciate and be grateful for in life, even though we missed the housing boat!