Why is it so much harder to get into a top school now?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:There will be an enrollment cliff soon. It won’t impact the top schools, but I’ve seen schools such as Bucknell, W&M, Brandeis, Ithaca College, Franklin & Marshall, Occidental and Sarah Lawrence exhibit great concern over it.

The enrollment cliff happened in 2010 and hasn't recovered since. see: https://educationdata.org/college-enrollment-statistics

But what is happening now is the number of graduating seniors is about to fall. Seniors today were born in 2005 at the height of the housing bubble. With the financial crisis, births declined sharply

This. The population of 18 year olds drops sharply beginning in 2025 & 2026. Birthrates declined during the financial crisis of 2008 and never resumed to pre- recession levels. Unless immigration makes up the gap, which is doubtful, lower tiered schools like regional state schools and less selective LACs will close. They have already started

O wouldn't be so sure about that. Price matters a lot. And for a lot of families those lower tiered schools have been "family friends" for many generations. The world is so much bigger than the T100.

NP. The OP is right. I have a good friend high up in the administration at Ithaca College who is worried about this. It’s a real existential threat to small, middle of the road colleges.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There will be an enrollment cliff soon. It won’t impact the top schools, but I’ve seen schools such as Bucknell, W&M, Brandeis, Ithaca College, Franklin & Marshall, Occidental and Sarah Lawrence exhibit great concern over it.

The enrollment cliff happened in 2010 and hasn't recovered since. see: https://educationdata.org/college-enrollment-statistics

But what is happening now is the number of graduating seniors is about to fall. Seniors today were born in 2005 at the height of the housing bubble. With the financial crisis, births declined sharply

This. The population of 18 year olds drops sharply beginning in 2025 & 2026. Birthrates declined during the financial crisis of 2008 and never resumed to pre- recession levels. Unless immigration makes up the gap, which is doubtful, lower tiered schools like regional state schools and less selective LACs will close. They have already started

O wouldn't be so sure about that. Price matters a lot. And for a lot of families those lower tiered schools have been "family friends" for many generations. The world is so much bigger than the T100.

True- but will there be enough family friends to keep the system afloat?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I've yet to see grads at lower ranked schools invent novel products or companies.

Oh you’re the “Rolodex” keeper of all grads in the history of grads who invented novel products or companies. Ignorance abounds in this thread.

CEOs of Starbucks, Patagonia, Under Armour = not top tier schools. The list goes on.

Here are a hundred of them. Most CEOs did not go to elite colleges.

https://lesshighschoolstress.com/business/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is this yet another one of those threads where people here are geniuses who can tell every worthy kid from an unworthy kid, but the professionals who do acceptances at colleges for a living are idiots who can’t tell the difference?

Cool.

Correct. It’s the type of thread where people know for sure that the brown and black kids in top schools don’t belong there because genetically, it just doesn’t make sense. How can these intellectually inferior students possibly be accepted to these top schools?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is this yet another one of those threads where people here are geniuses who can tell every worthy kid from an unworthy kid, but the professionals who do acceptances at colleges for a living are idiots who can’t tell the difference?

Cool.

Correct. It’s the type of thread where people know for sure that the brown and black kids in top schools don’t belong there because genetically, it just doesn’t make sense. How can these intellectually inferior students possibly be accepted to these top schools?

Who is saying that brown and black kids are intellectually inferior?? Aren't people saying that those with lower grades and lower scores are not as academically smart as those with stellar grades and scores? Not everyone has to be academically gifted - many academically gifted people struggle with other things that others find innate such as athletics, interpersonal skills and management, more manual hands on skills... There are places for everyone!

[Anonymous]

It doesn't help that a lot of kids are applying to 15-20 colleges today.

There's a freshman at Stanford who applied to 112 schools last year. Got into over 100 of them, and his family was so proud they told the local newspapers. I mean, if he could get into Stanford, surely he knew he didn't need to apply to all those schools. Seemed to be an attention-seeking grab.

I find that sort of approach really detrimental to the process for all the other seniors. And there's plenty of other who take a similar approach ("Look who got into ALL the Ivies"+) in hopes of padding their resume or moment in the spotlight?

Absent these extreme cases, still I wouldn't be surprised if seniors are applying to twice (or more) the number of schools than their peers did 15 years ago. I understand why in this uncertain world, but it sends those admissions statistics plummeting.

[Anonymous]

I think you are right, PP. Kids are applying to more schools because it is less predictable. My 23 kid applied to 17 or 18. My 2020 kid applied to 9 and we felt like that was a lot.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think you are right, PP. Kids are applying to more schools because it is less predictable. My 23 kid applied to 17 or 18. My 2020 kid applied to 9 and we felt like that was a lot.

But it’s not just that acceptance rates are lower due to more applications. Basic standards are higher. What is needed to get in is much higher now.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:This all suggests that top 30 SLACS are really on their way to having really strong student profiles. All the kids who would otherwise attend an Ivy like large research university or a state flagship but got rejected despite high test scores will have more interest in LACs so they can get a high quality education. Otherwise they are bound for mediocre universities or second tier state schools.

Most high stat kids I know, including my own, don’t want a small remote school. They prefer a large research institution with good sports.

Right but they will end up at Michigan state instead of Michigan. Or BU instead of Wash U.

And the problem with that is??????

Nothing per se. But it was in the context of kids getting squeezed down to less prestigious large schools. At some point you recognize the education you receive as an undergrad at these schools is inferior to what you could obtain at a LAC that might accept you. I know some might say ok but a LAC isn’t fun but to that I say… ok so just go to UNLV.

Such a false statement.

So second tier state schools are the pinnacle of teaching excellence?

I have friends who teach at what I would consider 5th tier. She truly loves teaching and loves her students. She does publish, but not at the rate as her peers at, say, Big10 schools. I would have any kid take her classes 10 times out of 10. Really, the differences between the schools as valued by parents in these threads is so small, mostly predicated on things like endowments and how much federal grants these schools take in, as opposed to the actual classroom experiences.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think you are right, PP. Kids are applying to more schools because it is less predictable. My 23 kid applied to 17 or 18. My 2020 kid applied to 9 and we felt like that was a lot.

But it’s not just that acceptance rates are lower due to more applications. Basic standards are higher. What is needed to get in is much higher now.

Because it’s fake. TO has raised scores because people with lower scores just don’t submit. They are still getting in at all but top schools, but just not submitting scores.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think you are right, PP. Kids are applying to more schools because it is less predictable. My 23 kid applied to 17 or 18. My 2020 kid applied to 9 and we felt like that was a lot.

But it’s not just that acceptance rates are lower due to more applications. Basic standards are higher. What is needed to get in is much higher now.

Because it’s fake. TO has raised scores because people with lower scores just don’t submit. They are still getting in at all but top schools, but just not submitting scores.

BINGO

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:easy answer - more full pay international applicants

+1. Not just full pay, but also very prepared. In my public high school in Europe, where English was a second language, over 50 of my graduating class had SATs over 1,500…an exam in a non-native tongue for us. We did calculus and linear algebra in early high school, years ahead of kids here. I was a physics national olympiad finalist etc. This is in a small country. Think of the larger foreign countries with strong elementary and high school education, of which there are many, because let’s be honest, the US might have some of the best colleges in the world, but education in the early years is lacking when compared to Scandinavia, Germany, South Korea, Russia, India etc.

[Anonymous]

Many highly skilled immigrants with kids who are being tutored from like prek
More kids and higher stats kids at that

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Equal-ish access

Your kid actually has to compete for their place instead of just getting in.

“Compete” based on what metric? Since it ain’t the objective metric of the same test given to everyone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:1) more kids applying to colleges in general
2) more international kids applying to US schools
3) grade inflation, which has been going on for years but was exacerbated by CovID
4) test opitonal - removes some sort of baseline understanding of how competititve kids are from "lesser" schools or school districts
5) for white kids, more emphasis on applicants of color and "first gen"

All of these combine to make it harder. It is what it is, and it will take some time for the schools to figure it out, so the key is to find a wide band of schools your kid likes and not focus on the same "T10" 'T25" or whatever. There shouldn't be people who want to apply to both Dartmouth and Columbia, wildly different schools and settings, same with Columbia and Brown, for example. Decide what you like about a school and then identify 10 others that have similar qualities but different variables to gain entry.

Very smart comment, and don't miss the bolded. A lot of people (especially on these boards) are stuck in this perspective on college admissions where all good students should want to go to the same 25 schools (and that the best students will all want to attend the same 5 schools). The truth is that there are a huge number of great schools out there and that the best first for your students will depend on their academic goals, social preferences, environmental preferences, etc.

Though part of this hangup is driven by parents who work in fields where that "T25" preference remains -- BigLaw, the top banks and consulting firms, politics. They work in fields where having certain academic credentials are, if not required, a huge advantage. And they don't understand that these same schools are not preferred for all fields. Your really have to understand your child's goals and think more expansively about what a "good school" is in that context.

What makes a school great, more than anything, is the quality of the peer group. Who am I to judge parents wanting their smart, high performing kids to be with other kids like that.