Federal Reserve: signs abound that housing market is entering bubble territory

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why are people forgetting that there is a housing shortage, especially for single family homes. Construction of new hosing has not picked up. Rent prices in some places are almost as high as mortgages. People still have kids and need more space.

Home prices will not go down. But they will not grow at the same rate as they have the past few years. We’re likely to see a steady growth over a ten year period. By that time there will be more single family housing available. Things will balance out.

There is NOT a housing shortage. There is a shortage of homes for sale. There is a difference and it matters.

Actually there is. Because when you flood a border for 30 plus years, ESPECIALLY every year since 2016, you have tens of millions of new residents -- with papers and w/o papers -- who need housing.

Um, what? This isn’t the Q Anon forum, friend. Turn off the FoxNews, put down the vino, and read up on net population loss in the DMV.

Double digit pop. growth in practically every DMV county and the District 2010 to 2020.

DC lost a higher percentage of its population than any other state in the last census (which covers 10 years) and not because people moved to other locations in the DMV. There’s been a lot written about the population decline in the DMV on this board and also in the news. Google it.

https://www.npr.org/local/305/2021/12/23/1067215177/new-census-data-finds-d-c-had-nation-s-largest-percentage-drop-in-population

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why are people forgetting that there is a housing shortage, especially for single family homes. Construction of new hosing has not picked up. Rent prices in some places are almost as high as mortgages. People still have kids and need more space.

Home prices will not go down. But they will not grow at the same rate as they have the past few years. We’re likely to see a steady growth over a ten year period. By that time there will be more single family housing available. Things will balance out.

+1

1) the “surge” isn’t close to the peak of 2005.


2) and the supply is still trailing demand.
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/29/1089174630/housing-shortage-new-home-construction-supply-chain

The market will soften. If you have an undesirable property it might sit longer or take a small price hit. But overall homes in desirable areas will stagnate at most.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why are people forgetting that there is a housing shortage, especially for single family homes. Construction of new hosing has not picked up. Rent prices in some places are almost as high as mortgages. People still have kids and need more space.

Home prices will not go down. But they will not grow at the same rate as they have the past few years. We’re likely to see a steady growth over a ten year period. By that time there will be more single family housing available. Things will balance out.

There is NOT a housing shortage. There is a shortage of homes for sale. There is a difference and it matters.

Actually there is. Because when you flood a border for 30 plus years, ESPECIALLY every year since 2016, you have tens of millions of new residents -- with papers and w/o papers -- who need housing.

Um, what? This isn’t the Q Anon forum, friend. Turn off the FoxNews, put down the vino, and read up on net population loss in the DMV.

Double digit pop. growth in practically every DMV county and the District 2010 to 2020.

DC lost a higher percentage of its population than any other state in the last census (which covers 10 years) and not because people moved to other locations in the DMV. There’s been a lot written about the population decline in the DMV on this board and also in the news. Google it.

https://www.npr.org/local/305/2021/12/23/1067215177/new-census-data-finds-d-c-had-nation-s-largest-percentage-drop-in-population

You’re misunderstanding the data. The decline was 2021 only - not 2010-2020 census data. Was there an event that happened in 2020/2021 that made cities, including DC, less appealing? That’s right - this was just a COVID impact. Of course DC had the highest population hit in 2021 - it’s just a city, and cities were significantly less appealing in 2020/2021 than they were in prior years. New York City’s population also declined significantly (Manhattan alone lost 7% of its population due to COVID!), but some of the exodus was to New York suburbs, rural areas, etc. So New York State overall declined slightly less than DC. DC doesn’t have the same diversity and so the blow wasn’t as cushioned.

Between 2010-2020 the DC Metro Area grew faster than all of the top 10 metro areas except 3 Sun Belt metro areas: Houston, Dallas and Atlanta.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Fffggg123 wrote:Why is this area losing population? My impression was the opposite with Tysons city being built and Amazon HQ

Many reasons: https://www.npr.org/local/305/2021/12/23/1067215177/new-census-data-finds-d-c-had-nation-s-largest-percentage-drop-in-population

What are the demographics of people leaving?

It appears that the demographic consists of "people who want more space". https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/12/24/dc-population-drop-covid/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why are people forgetting that there is a housing shortage, especially for single family homes. Construction of new hosing has not picked up. Rent prices in some places are almost as high as mortgages. People still have kids and need more space.

Home prices will not go down. But they will not grow at the same rate as they have the past few years. We’re likely to see a steady growth over a ten year period. By that time there will be more single family housing available. Things will balance out.

There is NOT a housing shortage. There is a shortage of homes for sale. There is a difference and it matters.

Actually there is. Because when you flood a border for 30 plus years, ESPECIALLY every year since 2016, you have tens of millions of new residents -- with papers and w/o papers -- who need housing.

Um, what? This isn’t the Q Anon forum, friend. Turn off the FoxNews, put down the vino, and read up on net population loss in the DMV.

Double digit pop. growth in practically every DMV county and the District 2010 to 2020.

DC lost a higher percentage of its population than any other state in the last census (which covers 10 years) and not because people moved to other locations in the DMV. There’s been a lot written about the population decline in the DMV on this board and also in the news. Google it.

https://www.npr.org/local/305/2021/12/23/1067215177/new-census-data-finds-d-c-had-nation-s-largest-percentage-drop-in-population

You’re misunderstanding the data. The decline was 2021 only - not 2010-2020 census data. Was there an event that happened in 2020/2021 that made cities, including DC, less appealing? That’s right - this was just a COVID impact. Of course DC had the highest population hit in 2021 - it’s just a city, and cities were significantly less appealing in 2020/2021 than they were in prior years. New York City’s population also declined significantly (Manhattan alone lost 7% of its population due to COVID!), but some of the exodus was to New York suburbs, rural areas, etc. So New York State overall declined slightly less than DC. DC doesn’t have the same diversity and so the blow wasn’t as cushioned.

Between 2010-2020 the DC Metro Area grew faster than all of the top 10 metro areas except 3 Sun Belt metro areas: Houston, Dallas and Atlanta.

Adding to this that if you look at the rental vacancy data for the last few quarters, you can pretty clearly see that most of the increase in vacancy (from loss in population) that occurred in late 2020 and early 2021 reversed itself by the end of 2021. Vacancy rates now are not far from long-term averages, implying that people moved back into the city pretty quickly. I would not be surprised if when the 2022 population estimates come out, DC is suddenly reported as the fastest growing state in the country.

https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/rates.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why are people forgetting that there is a housing shortage, especially for single family homes. Construction of new hosing has not picked up. Rent prices in some places are almost as high as mortgages. People still have kids and need more space.

Home prices will not go down. But they will not grow at the same rate as they have the past few years. We’re likely to see a steady growth over a ten year period. By that time there will be more single family housing available. Things will balance out.

Nope. New house starts (new construction housing) “surged” in February 2022, to the highest level since 2006. There is no housing shortage— that is a myth. There is an inventory shortage, brought about partly by pandemic behaviors and partly by owner behavior responding to inflating prices and overvaluing their existing asset while feeling priced out of upgraded houses. But that’s all about to change. As prices decrease we’ll see more houses on the market as people try to cash in before the boon ends. Most importantly, as prices begin to go down, investors and speculators who have been sitting on empty properties or renting property are going to start unloading that inventory. Then we’ll start seeing the distressed sales from people who overbought during the exuberance. There will be plenty of houses on the market in the next year. Too many.

There are more people leaving the DMV than moving into it—we are losing population faster than any other region and that’s been going on for a few years. Plus, like everywhere we aren’t creating enough people to replace the giant Boomer generation as they move into retirement homes and pass on. There are more houses/housing than people in the region than at any point since WW II. So, once and for all (I hope) let’s put to bed this old canard that there aren’t enough houses. There haven’t been enough houses for sale in the recent past, but that’s not the same thing at all. And that’s about to change in a significant way as a response to these ither market forces.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts

Not to mention there will be fewer buyers in the market simply due to rising interest rates. Crazy low interest rates drew an artificially high number of buyers/borrowers into the market. Plus people who would have otherwise waited to move to a bigger house decided to stretch their budget sooner than expected because the pandemic lockdowns made people yearn more bigger spaces. Now that those factors are disappearing, a big percentage of the buyers who have been bidding up prices will also disappear.

Why didn't housing prices collapse in the 1970s and 1980s?

They did. More so in some places than others. Mostly, it just became very difficult to sell a house at all. Double digit interest rates will do that.

https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-vs-inflation/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why are people forgetting that there is a housing shortage, especially for single family homes. Construction of new hosing has not picked up. Rent prices in some places are almost as high as mortgages. People still have kids and need more space.

Home prices will not go down. But they will not grow at the same rate as they have the past few years. We’re likely to see a steady growth over a ten year period. By that time there will be more single family housing available. Things will balance out.

Nope. New house starts (new construction housing) “surged” in February 2022, to the highest level since 2006. There is no housing shortage— that is a myth. There is an inventory shortage, brought about partly by pandemic behaviors and partly by owner behavior responding to inflating prices and overvaluing their existing asset while feeling priced out of upgraded houses. But that’s all about to change. As prices decrease we’ll see more houses on the market as people try to cash in before the boon ends. Most importantly, as prices begin to go down, investors and speculators who have been sitting on empty properties or renting property are going to start unloading that inventory. Then we’ll start seeing the distressed sales from people who overbought during the exuberance. There will be plenty of houses on the market in the next year. Too many.

There are more people leaving the DMV than moving into it—we are losing population faster than any other region and that’s been going on for a few years. Plus, like everywhere we aren’t creating enough people to replace the giant Boomer generation as they move into retirement homes and pass on. There are more houses/housing than people in the region than at any point since WW II. So, once and for all (I hope) let’s put to bed this old canard that there aren’t enough houses. There haven’t been enough houses for sale in the recent past, but that’s not the same thing at all. And that’s about to change in a significant way as a response to these ither market forces.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts

Not to mention there will be fewer buyers in the market simply due to rising interest rates. Crazy low interest rates drew an artificially high number of buyers/borrowers into the market. Plus people who would have otherwise waited to move to a bigger house decided to stretch their budget sooner than expected because the pandemic lockdowns made people yearn more bigger spaces. Now that those factors are disappearing, a big percentage of the buyers who have been bidding up prices will also disappear.

Why didn't housing prices collapse in the 1970s and 1980s?

They did. More so in some places than others. Mostly, it just became very difficult to sell a house at all. Double digit interest rates will do that.

https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-vs-inflation/

Looks like they rised, fell, rised again, then fell when interest rates kept rising in the 1970s/80s.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Fffggg123 wrote:Why is this area losing population? My impression was the opposite with Tysons city being built and Amazon HQ

Many reasons: https://www.npr.org/local/305/2021/12/23/1067215177/new-census-data-finds-d-c-had-nation-s-largest-percentage-drop-in-population

What are the demographics of people leaving?

It appears that the demographic consists of "people who want more space". https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/12/24/dc-population-drop-covid/

Using the 2020 Census for any population metrics should be banned. The data was taken during March 2020 - August 2020 when everyone was fleeing cities because NYC had 40,000 individuals die in their streets in 8 weeks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why are people forgetting that there is a housing shortage, especially for single family homes. Construction of new hosing has not picked up. Rent prices in some places are almost as high as mortgages. People still have kids and need more space.

Home prices will not go down. But they will not grow at the same rate as they have the past few years. We’re likely to see a steady growth over a ten year period. By that time there will be more single family housing available. Things will balance out.

There is NOT a housing shortage. There is a shortage of homes for sale. There is a difference and it matters.

Actually there is. Because when you flood a border for 30 plus years, ESPECIALLY every year since 2016, you have tens of millions of new residents -- with papers and w/o papers -- who need housing.

Um, what? This isn’t the Q Anon forum, friend. Turn off the FoxNews, put down the vino, and read up on net population loss in the DMV.

Double digit pop. growth in practically every DMV county and the District 2010 to 2020.

DC lost a higher percentage of its population than any other state in the last census (which covers 10 years) and not because people moved to other locations in the DMV. There’s been a lot written about the population decline in the DMV on this board and also in the news. Google it.

https://www.npr.org/local/305/2021/12/23/1067215177/new-census-data-finds-d-c-had-nation-s-largest-percentage-drop-in-population

You’re misunderstanding the data. The decline was 2021 only - not 2010-2020 census data. Was there an event that happened in 2020/2021 that made cities, including DC, less appealing? That’s right - this was just a COVID impact. Of course DC had the highest population hit in 2021 - it’s just a city, and cities were significantly less appealing in 2020/2021 than they were in prior years. New York City’s population also declined significantly (Manhattan alone lost 7% of its population due to COVID!), but some of the exodus was to New York suburbs, rural areas, etc. So New York State overall declined slightly less than DC. DC doesn’t have the same diversity and so the blow wasn’t as cushioned.

Between 2010-2020 the DC Metro Area grew faster than all of the top 10 metro areas except 3 Sun Belt metro areas: Houston, Dallas and Atlanta.

Adding to this that if you look at the rental vacancy data for the last few quarters, you can pretty clearly see that most of the increase in vacancy (from loss in population) that occurred in late 2020 and early 2021 reversed itself by the end of 2021. Vacancy rates now are not far from long-term averages, implying that people moved back into the city pretty quickly. I would not be surprised if when the 2022 population estimates come out, DC is suddenly reported as the fastest growing state in the country.

https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/rates.html

It seems unlikely. DC doesn't have housing stock that is attractive to buyers, whose preferences have changed with increased work at home. People are leaving cities and moving to suburbs as a national trend, and since DC is all city, it's going to be hit harder. It's also a northern, high COLA area so it's not an obvious choice when you're a remote worker.

[Anonymous]

High-speed rail to areas that have the “bones” e.g. empty office buildings, street lights that have been virtually abandoned would do a world of good.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why are people forgetting that there is a housing shortage, especially for single family homes. Construction of new hosing has not picked up. Rent prices in some places are almost as high as mortgages. People still have kids and need more space.

Home prices will not go down. But they will not grow at the same rate as they have the past few years. We’re likely to see a steady growth over a ten year period. By that time there will be more single family housing available. Things will balance out.

There is NOT a housing shortage. There is a shortage of homes for sale. There is a difference and it matters.

Actually there is. Because when you flood a border for 30 plus years, ESPECIALLY every year since 2016, you have tens of millions of new residents -- with papers and w/o papers -- who need housing.

Um, what? This isn’t the Q Anon forum, friend. Turn off the FoxNews, put down the vino, and read up on net population loss in the DMV.

Double digit pop. growth in practically every DMV county and the District 2010 to 2020.

DC lost a higher percentage of its population than any other state in the last census (which covers 10 years) and not because people moved to other locations in the DMV. There’s been a lot written about the population decline in the DMV on this board and also in the news. Google it.

https://www.npr.org/local/305/2021/12/23/1067215177/new-census-data-finds-d-c-had-nation-s-largest-percentage-drop-in-population

You’re misunderstanding the data. The decline was 2021 only - not 2010-2020 census data. Was there an event that happened in 2020/2021 that made cities, including DC, less appealing? That’s right - this was just a COVID impact. Of course DC had the highest population hit in 2021 - it’s just a city, and cities were significantly less appealing in 2020/2021 than they were in prior years. New York City’s population also declined significantly (Manhattan alone lost 7% of its population due to COVID!), but some of the exodus was to New York suburbs, rural areas, etc. So New York State overall declined slightly less than DC. DC doesn’t have the same diversity and so the blow wasn’t as cushioned.

Between 2010-2020 the DC Metro Area grew faster than all of the top 10 metro areas except 3 Sun Belt metro areas: Houston, Dallas and Atlanta.

DP. There was an article in the wash post pre-pandemic about how younger people were all leaving dc. Behind a paywall but you can still
Google it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why are people forgetting that there is a housing shortage, especially for single family homes. Construction of new hosing has not picked up. Rent prices in some places are almost as high as mortgages. People still have kids and need more space.

Home prices will not go down. But they will not grow at the same rate as they have the past few years. We’re likely to see a steady growth over a ten year period. By that time there will be more single family housing available. Things will balance out.

There is NOT a housing shortage. There is a shortage of homes for sale. There is a difference and it matters.

Actually there is. Because when you flood a border for 30 plus years, ESPECIALLY every year since 2016, you have tens of millions of new residents -- with papers and w/o papers -- who need housing.

Um, what? This isn’t the Q Anon forum, friend. Turn off the FoxNews, put down the vino, and read up on net population loss in the DMV.

Double digit pop. growth in practically every DMV county and the District 2010 to 2020.

DC lost a higher percentage of its population than any other state in the last census (which covers 10 years) and not because people moved to other locations in the DMV. There’s been a lot written about the population decline in the DMV on this board and also in the news. Google it.

https://www.npr.org/local/305/2021/12/23/1067215177/new-census-data-finds-d-c-had-nation-s-largest-percentage-drop-in-population

This. DC had the largest population loss and home values rose the least percentage out of all the states (and DC) during the pandemic. DC's future depends on remote work policies because most DC residents choose to live in DC for proximity to work (with proximity to amenities second only after factoring for proximity to work). We choose to live in DC over the VA or MD suburbs, but not sure we would choose DC over some other part of the country if we could maintain 100% remote work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People can build their own houses.

I wish I knew how to build my own house.

That’s what I did. Granted, it was 19 years ago and DH is a pipefitter and skilled in construction, but with the help of others, we did it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Translation: I am a tenured full professor.

And therefore otherwise unemployable.

What do you think tenured means?

That no matter how incompetent you are, you can't be fired as long as you keep your hands off of students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why are people forgetting that there is a housing shortage, especially for single family homes. Construction of new hosing has not picked up. Rent prices in some places are almost as high as mortgages. People still have kids and need more space.

Home prices will not go down. But they will not grow at the same rate as they have the past few years. We’re likely to see a steady growth over a ten year period. By that time there will be more single family housing available. Things will balance out.

There is NOT a housing shortage. There is a shortage of homes for sale. There is a difference and it matters.

Actually there is. Because when you flood a border for 30 plus years, ESPECIALLY every year since 2016, you have tens of millions of new residents -- with papers and w/o papers -- who need housing.

Um, what? This isn’t the Q Anon forum, friend. Turn off the FoxNews, put down the vino, and read up on net population loss in the DMV.

Double digit pop. growth in practically every DMV county and the District 2010 to 2020.

Don't worry, remote work really won't be a thing. i see my lawyer neighbors in suits again regularly. https://www.inc.com/jason-aten/googles-employees-return-to-office-today-this-former-exec-says-hybrid-work-wont-last.html






DC lost a higher percentage of its population than any other state in the last census (which covers 10 years) and not because people moved to other locations in the DMV. There’s been a lot written about the population decline in the DMV on this board and also in the news. Google it.

https://www.npr.org/local/305/2021/12/23/1067215177/new-census-data-finds-d-c-had-nation-s-largest-percentage-drop-in-population

This. DC had the largest population loss and home values rose the least percentage out of all the states (and DC) during the pandemic. DC's future depends on remote work policies because most DC residents choose to live in DC for proximity to work (with proximity to amenities second only after factoring for proximity to work). We choose to live in DC over the VA or MD suburbs, but not sure we would choose DC over some other part of the country if we could maintain 100% remote work.